Both focus games from day two of NBA opening week are done, and the pre-match predictions hit on both: not only were both winners right, both of my under fallbacks, which went against the market trend, landed too. I have to admit there was some luck involved, since none of these teams has any history to go on, but as a read on the scoring power of two teams that only managed 106 and 105 points, it was fairly accurate.
| Game (away @ home) | Pre-match call | Pre-match line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves @ Heat | Timberwolves to win, fallback under 239.5 | Heat -1.5, total 239.5 | Timberwolves 131-106 | ✅ Hit (fallback: total 237, under, hit) |
| Warriors @ Lakers | Lakers to win, fallback under 234 | Lakers -6.5, total 234 | Lakers 127-105 | ✅ Hit (fallback: total 232, under, hit) |
Timberwolves 131-106 Heat: Right Reason, Wrong Man, and Minnesota’s Firepower Beat Expectations
Timberwolves 131-106 Heat. Before the game I took the Timberwolves for two main reasons: first, laid side by side the two rosters are about even, and the market leaning to the Heat is just home-court advantage; second, Klay’s habit of a slow start to seasons might mean he couldn’t punish the space Giannis creates. The Timberwolves won by 25, and the three-point gap really did show up at 63-24: Edwards hit 9 threes, LaMelo 5 and Kuminga 2, and those three alone made twice as many as the entire Heat team (who made just 8). The idea that “the space Giannis creates goes unpunished” turned out to be right on the result, but I picked the wrong man. Klay went 3 for 6 from three, a 50% mark that is actually not bad, but with foul trouble he played just 16 minutes, and it was Tim Hardaway Jr. 1-7, Nikola Jović 0-3 and Adebayo 1-5, three cold shooters from outside, who dragged down the whole offence. The good news for the Heat is that Giannis’ offence hasn’t dropped off at all after changing teams: 13-19 for 35 points shows he is still an MVP-level star, and once his teammates’ touch returns, Miami still has a lot to look forward to this season (the Southeast Division preview noted that Klay’s arrival added spacing but that bench depth is a real weakness).
The Timberwolves, meanwhile, produced a pleasant surprise: Edwards scored 45 on better than 50% shooting, and LaMelo added 21 points and 6 assists, so the two-gun backcourt’s firepower really is startling. The bench, which had been a worry, was held up by Dosunmu’s 16 points. Kuminga, whose summer saga ended with him landing in Minnesota, was ordinary: he made two threes, but his defence and shot selection still have room to improve, and he doesn’t yet seem to have found the best way to coexist with a backcourt duo who also need the ball (the Northwest Division preview pointed out that both Edwards and LaMelo are ball-dominant stars and that chemistry was the question).
Lakers 127-105 Warriors: “Losing the Suspense Early and Drifting Into Garbage Time” Went Exactly as I Said
Lakers 127-105 Warriors. This pick was hardly a surprise, given the gap between the rosters, and what’s worth noting is that before the game I said “the depleted Warriors will lose the suspense early under Doncic and drift into garbage time”, which is exactly what happened: the Warriors hung on for the first quarter at 34-33, then the Lakers gradually pulled away to lead by as many as 35, and Doncic was done after three quarters (28 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and no fourth quarter). Kessler flattened the Warriors’ currently battered frontcourt: 12 for 12, 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 of those 12 shots were dunks. I had expected Kessler’s numbers to go up alongside Doncic, a master at drawing defenders, but the size of the jump was far beyond what I imagined. Reaves added 23 points, a solid but unremarkable night.
On the Warriors’ side, Curry played hurt and scored 23 (7/15), but played only 21 minutes, and apart from rookie Yaxel Lendeborg the other main rotation players had about the same minutes, so the intent to give a look to others was obvious (echoing the Pacific Division preview, which said the Warriors are focused on 2027). They finished with 105, and the under line fits what we predicted about both sides giving up their main units in garbage time, but even so it cleared by only two points, so the call was right but it was a close escape.
Takeaways: With No History, You Lean on Knowing the Stars, and the Under Fallbacks Were Only Half Right
- Predictions with no team history lean on your understanding of the stars. Neither game had any team data to go on, so I could only rely on my read of the main stars. Both that Edwards and LaMelo fit well and are hot, and that Curry wouldn’t go all-out because of his injury, were borne out, and without the star underperformances of opening night, accuracy rose accordingly.
- Both under fallbacks were narrow escapes. In an era that prizes offence, betting the under is always the riskier option. The totals of 237 and 232 were only 2.5 and 2 points under the line, and both only because the losing side scored just 105 and 106, while the winners scored 127 and 131. That is more useful than the win-loss calls, but I must admit my pre-match under reads were at best about 75% right: the Warriors–Lakers game went exactly to expectation, with the same reasoning as predicted, while in Heat–Timberwolves I correctly guessed that the Heat would score less than expected because of three-point shooting, but it wasn’t Klay who had the problem as I guessed, it was the cold touch of the other players, so that one was only half right.
Both games hit this time, but there were a few details I didn’t foresee: besides the Heat’s problem not being Klay’s shooting, Kessler going 12 for 12 was a breakout nobody could have predicted beforehand. So there was some luck in these two hits, just as there was some bad luck in the two I missed the day before, which means the real key over the long run is whether an understanding of the teams can reduce the effect of luck. Don’t fixate on a single day or a single game; steady long-term performance is what counts.
As always, please bet responsibly.