Having wrapped up the East, this piece turns to the West. The Spurs may have gone down hard in the Finals, losing 1-4, but a lot of that roster was playing in the Finals — or even the playoffs — for the first time. Judging the West’s overall competitiveness next season purely off how the conference champion performed in the Finals would be a real mistake. Let’s start with the Northwest Division, home to two-seasons-ago champion Oklahoma City, and look at what’s ahead for this division.
Oklahoma City Thunder: co-favorites, but the roster has slipped a little
In the latest title odds from overseas sportsbooks, the Thunder and Spurs are tied for the best odds — a real sign of how much the market believes in them. But looking at their offseason moves and overall roster strength, I actually think Oklahoma City has gotten slightly weaker. They lost lockdown defender Lu Dort, plus bench contributors Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. The bench depth and young talent OKC has built up over the years should be enough to cover those losses, but a big reason they lost to the Spurs last season was Holmgren getting completely overwhelmed at both ends by Wembanyama, and they didn’t make any targeted addition to address that specifically. Even with Jalen Williams back this season, if they run into the Spurs again with that interior problem unresolved, it’s still a real liability. That said, in the regular season the Thunder remain a near-unstoppable force, and 60-plus wins shouldn’t be a problem.
Minnesota Timberwolves: a massive gamble — all or nothing?
Aside from the Giannis trade and LeBron James joining the 76ers, Minnesota trading for LaMelo Ball is probably the biggest story of the summer. When healthy, Ball genuinely is an All-Star-caliber point guard, and his shooting and playmaking could free up Anthony Edwards to focus purely on scoring. But I think they gave up too much for this — losing Sixth Man of the Year-caliber Naz Reid in exchange for a player with real health and defensive question marks and possible touch-sharing issues, on top of the bench depth problem created by moving Reid — is exactly why this trade is widely seen, myself included, as a genuine gamble. If it goes wrong, it could seriously undermine what Minnesota has built over the past few years and push them toward a rebuild. How many games the Wolves win this season really comes down to how the pieces gel, which makes it hard to project — I’d put them somewhere in the 45-to-52 win range, landing in roughly the same playoff-to-play-in tier as last season.
Denver Nuggets: still bleeding talent — are they still title contenders?
Since winning the title in 2023, Denver’s roster has been steadily thinned out by salary constraints. They still have arguably the league’s best player of the last few seasons in Jokić anchoring things, but even the best chef can’t cook without ingredients, and Denver’s playoff runs the last few years have been a genuine grind without enough help around him. Their title odds are still among the league’s better ones this season, but there’s a clear gap between them and the top tier, which shows the market has real doubts about their outlook too. On the roster front, forward Peyton Watson, who had a brief breakout last season, was traded away, and their main addition was signing former All-Star DeMar DeRozan at a minimum salary. DeRozan can’t carry a team on his own, but his scoring and clutch touch should take some offensive pressure off Jamal Murray — his lack of range does drag down spacing a bit, though Jokić’s passing might make up for that. Denver’s real problem is defense: Murray, Jokić and DeRozan aren’t exactly known for it, Aaron Gordon has injury concerns of his own, and losing Peyton Watson only makes the defensive picture worse. I think 50-ish wins and a comfortable playoff spot is realistic, but a real title push looks like a stretch.
Portland Trail Blazers: a legend returns — and Morant brings the drama with him?
Portland made it back to the playoffs last season on the back of a young core, and this offseason they re-signed franchise legend Damian Lillard, and traded for former highlight-reel All-Star Ja Morant, whose relationship with Memphis fell apart over the gun incident. With Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe already in the backcourt mix, they were briefly reported to be shopping or open to buying out Jrue Holiday while continuing to look for upgrades. But Sharpe blew out his season with a serious injury in offseason training, and Morant’s temperament plus Lillard’s age and injury history both hang over what looks like a stacked but fragile backcourt on paper. Up front, Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams III both played well last season, but the frontcourt bench is thin, and both Yang Hansen and newly-signed Sochan have their own technical gaps. I’d project around 45 wins, just above .500, landing between the playoff and play-in tier.
Utah Jazz: still rebuilding, but with real sleeper upside
The Jazz have spent the last few years stockpiling picks and talent. Midway through last season they traded for Jaren Jackson Jr. to pair up front with star Markkanen, while trading Kessler to the Lakers for a haul of picks. This year’s draft brought in Darryn Peterson at No. 2, and he should get plenty of playing time and development runway this season, joining young talents like Ace Bailey and Keyonte George in a genuinely talent-rich core. That talent isn’t likely to pay off quickly, though — Utah still won’t be a real playoff contender this season, and there could well be games where the stars get rested for development reasons. Still, this roster has real sleeper-and-spoiler potential. I’d project 25 to 35 wins, with an outside shot at the play-in bubble if things break right.
My take: the Thunder are way out front, the Jazz bring up the rear
Overall, the Northwest is a genuinely competitive division — not only do you have the top title favorite in Oklahoma City, but the Timberwolves and Nuggets are both top-ten title-odds teams this season too. Portland lags a bit behind those three in roster strength but is still a playoff-caliber side. Outside of Utah, all four other teams have a real shot at one of the West’s six guaranteed playoff spots. Based on the rosters, my projected order is: Thunder >> Nuggets > Timberwolves > Trail Blazers >> Jazz.