This is the last piece in the Eastern Conference division preview series: the Southeast. This division is noticeably less competitive than the other two. After a string of summer trades, the team with the strongest roster on paper is unquestionably the Miami Heat, who traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo — but to land him, Miami gave up most of the roster’s other assets, leaving them short on depth. They have a real shot at contending, but they’re not quite a top-tier team. Here’s a team-by-team look.
Atlanta Hawks: last season’s real runners-up?
Who would have guessed that the toughest resistance the champion Knicks faced last postseason came from a first-round matchup with the Hawks? Atlanta’s two wins in that series were actually better than what the swept Cavaliers managed in the East finals, or what the Spurs managed in a 1-4 Finals loss — which is why some fans jokingly call the Hawks last season’s real runners-up. Jokes aside, this season Atlanta traded for Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins and kept CJ McCollum, but franchise player Jalen Johnson, despite earning All-Star and All-NBA Third Team honors last season, hasn’t seen the roster around him upgrade much amid the East’s broader arms race — the ceiling here is limited, and they’ll likely be hovering around the play-in line. I’d project somewhere in the 35-to-42 win range, right around .500.
Orlando Magic: the core is struggling — is there still hope?
To complement Paolo Banchero and Wagner’s games, Orlando brought in sharpshooter Bane last season, but they still went out in the first round — not exactly a season you’d call a success. Banchero’s play last season drew real criticism, seen by many as overpaid for his production — his lack of mid-to-long-range shooting makes his offense relatively inefficient, and spacing gets crowded whenever he and Wagner share the floor, an issue Bane’s arrival hasn’t really solved. With all three now on big contracts, Orlando’s room to add more talent has shrunk considerably. Unless Banchero keeps developing, this roster’s ceiling is what it is — last season they only stumbled into a playoff spot, and this year even making the playoffs at all is no sure thing. I’d project 35 to 40 wins, slightly below .500.
Charlotte Hornets: shipped out the franchise star, rebuild underway
The Hornets managed a winning record last season, but apparently recognizing this group’s ceiling was capped, they decisively traded franchise cornerstone LaMelo Ball to the Timberwolves this summer, along with the useful Miles Bridges to the Suns, officially kicking off a rebuild built around two high lottery picks, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel. Don’t expect an impressive record this season — the focus will be on developing young players and stockpiling a high pick. I’d project somewhere around 20 to 30 wins.
Miami Heat: tearing it down and rebuilding big, with real ambition
After completing the Giannis Antetokounmpo trade this year, Miami went from outside the playoff picture to a team that could realistically push for a title — that’s the power of adding a prime-years MVP-caliber star. There were early concerns about spacing given that neither Adebayo nor Andrew Wiggins are elite floor-spacers despite some outside shooting ability, but signing Klay Thompson after his Mavericks buyout eased that concern considerably — even though Thompson is older and slower now, and can fairly be called a liability defensively, Miami’s other defenders and coverage should be able to hide him well enough to let him focus purely on shooting, and as a pure shooter he’s still top-five caliber in the league. But Miami’s problem mirrors the 76ers’ — after emptying the cupboard to go all-in on Giannis, the roster lacks depth, and the connective tissue between the stars is thin on firepower. So while they’re seen as having a real shot at the title, they may not be a true top-tier contender — for Miami, cracking 50 wins this season is the bar that would prove this trade was worth it.
Washington Wizards: dazzling on paper, but plenty of real doubts
Washington retained All-Star point guard Trae Young this offseason, traded for Anthony Davis late last season, and then added former #1 pick Ayton this summer. On paper, the roster looks star-studded, and a combination like this might have genuinely excited people a few years ago. But here in 2026: Trae Young’s ability to lead a team and defend has already been proven not to work back with the Hawks, Anthony Davis is still a top-five interior presence when he’s on the floor, but the problem is he often isn’t, and as for Ayton… the last few years have pretty much worn down any expectations people had for him. Add in the lack of a strong wing and a first pick, AJ Dybantsa, who’ll likely need development time, and this season is still shaping up to be about player development and stockpiling trade assets and picks. If Davis stays healthy, something like 20 to 30 wins is realistic; if he keeps missing time, it could be fewer than 20.
My take: Miami’s the strongest, but the division overall is weak
My projected order for the division: Heat > Hawks > Magic > Hornets = Wizards. Overall, no team in this division has a stable claim to top-tier status — Miami has the highest ceiling on paper, but the depth concerns are real and persistent, which is exactly why the Southeast has noticeably less to watch than the Atlantic or Central this season.