Last stop on the division-by-division previews — this used to be the league’s most competitive division, home to two marquee franchises in the Warriors and Lakers, with the Clippers and Suns also playoff-caliber and at times considered genuine title threats; even the Kings were a third-seed team in the West not that long ago. But roster turnover has reshaped things, and this division is now clearly one power and four also-rans — outside of the Lakers, every other team here projects as play-in at best this season.

Los Angeles Lakers: the division’s clear top dog, but still a ways from a title

With LBJ off to the 76ers, the Lakers are now fully in the Dončić-Reaves era — a duo with elite offensive firepower, but whose defense will hand every opponent that same elite offensive firepower right back. That’s why the Lakers went out and added rim protector Kessler this summer, along with a defense-minded wing in Quentin Grimes. But with Kuminga confirmed to be signing elsewhere, the Lakers’ wing defense still isn’t exactly deep, and fully papering over Dončić and Reaves’ defensive shortcomings isn’t realistic — add in the capped ceilings of Reaves and Kessler, and this isn’t yet a team built to genuinely push for a title. Barring major injuries, I’d project around 50 wins, roughly a mid-pack playoff seed.

Phoenix Suns: past the superstar-culture era, but roster fit is a real question

After trading for Miles Bridges in the offseason, the Suns’ roster actually looks solid on paper at both ends heading into the new season. Last year they made the playoffs as the West’s seventh seed against pretty much everyone’s expectations, and while they were swept 0-4, they showed real resilience getting there. The problem this season is the same one as last year — no genuine table-setting point guard to run the offense — and their bench depth still lags behind the West’s top tier. Landing right on the play-in bubble shouldn’t be a problem, but this still isn’t a stable playoff-caliber team. I’d project a roughly .500 season, somewhere around 40 wins.

Golden State Warriors: a placeholder season, eyes on 2027

With Jimmy Butler out for the season with a torn ACL and rotation piece Moses Moody expected to miss most of the year too, Golden State’s offseason moves basically spell out their real target — 2027. Signing Draymond Green to just a one-year deal gives them close to the league’s most wide-open cap sheet heading into 2027, setting up one last real swing at a title window before Stephen Curry’s career winds down. So don’t expect anything bold from them this season — the focus will be developing young players and getting injured veterans back to form late in the year. I’d project a ceiling of around 35 wins overall, and probably closer to the floor than the ceiling — with nothing riding on the standings this year, staying healthy is the real priority.

Los Angeles Clippers: a rebuild is underway, but the outlook is murky

The league reportedly paused the Leonard trade, but there’s been no substantive evidence to back that up, and I still expect the deal to close before the season opens — which effectively confirms a Clippers rebuild. The roster still has former All-Stars in Garland, Ingram, Beal and Lopez, and this offseason they added hometown signing Rui Hachimura. But given the age and ceiling of that group, the Clippers likely aren’t building around them — expect more minutes and touches for this year’s No. 5 pick instead, while those veterans probably get flipped for picks or cap flexibility over the next couple of years. A reasonable projection for the Clippers is around 30 wins, with an outside shot at sneaking into play-in range on a hot stretch — but there’s no real need for it, and not much hope of it either.

Sacramento Kings: nobody understands what they’ve been doing lately, myself included

It’s hard to believe this team was a third seed in the West just a few years back. After a string of baffling, self-sabotaging decisions over the past several seasons, the front office has more or less gotten its wish and steered this team right back into the bottom-feeder role everyone remembers them for. The roster still has proven players in Sabonis and Monk, but expect them to get moved before long to fit whatever timeline the front office is chasing this week. This season should mostly be about developing this year’s No. 7 pick, but this front office’s decision-making has never followed a normal pattern, so I genuinely can’t guess what they’ll actually do. Around 20 wins would be a decent projection — and given the Kings’ long history of bottoming out this way, that wouldn’t be much of a surprise either.

My take: one power, four also-rans, the Lakers hold the crown

Overall, the gap in this division is stark: Lakers >> Suns >>>>>> everyone else (Warriors, Clippers, Kings).