The pre-match predictions for Champions League matchday 4 finished with 5 hits from 8, 1 partial hit and 2 misses. The eight games produced 26 goals, 3.25 per game, well below the 5.5 of the previous round, though PSG alone supplied 6 of them; both teams scored in 5 of the 8. For the background to the two “better process, lost anyway” games for City and Liverpool, see the Premier League matchweek 9 verification. Shots, possession and other process numbers come from ESPN’s match statistics.
The Five Hits: Right Direction in All of Them, but Many Weren’t Easy
Barcelona 3-0 Villa. Yamal opened the scoring on 7’ and Raphinha added two on 52’ and 64’; shots were 16 to 9 and shots on target 8 to 1, with Villa managing just 1 on target all game. Before the game I wrote “Villa may try the same approach to attack Barcelona’s back line”, but Villa had 9 shots and 1 on target, Barcelona’s defence held up better than I thought, and the game turned from the end-to-end contest I expected into one-sided pressure; the over 4.5 fallback missed (total 3, and it was one-sided pressure, not an end-to-end game). Right direction, reasoning not entirely right: I expected an end-to-end game and got a one-sided one, but Barcelona’s firepower being better is something I did call correctly.
Villarreal 0-6 PSG. Neves 9’, Doué 12’, Mayulu 13’ and Fabián Ruiz 17’ made it 4-0 in 17 minutes, then Ruiz on 50’ and Boly on 78’ added one each; shots 22 to 14, shots on target 12 to 2, PSG with 70.6% possession. Before the game I wrote “PSG can always be trusted in the Champions League”, which was right, but the under 3.5 fallback was completely wrong (total 6): I wrote “given the injuries, I’ll take the under”, and it turned out that losing two of the front three made no difference to their scoring, with Mayulu, Akliouche, Neves and Doué all starting. Right direction, wrong fallback. I’d noted that “Vitinha, Neves, Doué, Pacho and Fabián were all on the bench on Friday and well rested”, which was accurate; what I didn’t expect was how ruthless PSG would be.
AEK 2-3 Real Madrid. AEK scored first on 12’, Bellingham equalised on 32’, AEK went ahead again on 75’, Mbappé levelled on 78’, and then Valverde won it with a long-range shot on 90’+2; AEK’s Koïta was sent off on 90’+5 for a second yellow. Real Madrid had 24 shots (8 on target), AEK 9 shots with 5 on target. Before the game I wrote “an easy win” and “more minutes for Diomande will add width threat”, but it wasn’t all that easy, Madrid fell behind twice and won only with a stoppage-time winner; Diomande started, but didn’t score; the over 2.5 fallback landed (total 5). Right direction, right fallback, but even with the numbers all in their favour it can’t be called an “easy win”: judging by the process it wasn’t easy, though on the numbers alone Madrid were completely dominant, with 70% possession, expected goals of 3.35 to 0.86 and 24 shots to 9. I have to say AEK did very well on the counter, it’s just that Madrid’s superior quality still carried them to the win in the end.
Slavia 1-2 Arsenal. Madueke 9’ and Gyökeres 38’ scored, and Arsenal held a 2-0 lead; Slavia only got a consolation on 90’; Slavia actually had more shots, 18 (6 on target) to Arsenal’s 12 (5 on target), and Arsenal had 56.5% possession. Before the game I wrote “Arsenal’s attack is nothing special, with an under 3.5 fallback”, and the total of 3 landed; with only 12 shots, “nothing special” was right once again, but the win came from two efficient goals, not dominance. Right direction, right fallback, and the reasoning was right too: Arsenal’s attack is nothing special, but they won with efficiency and defence.
RB Leipzig 2-3 Manchester City. Lukeba’s own goal on 37’ put City ahead, Baku levelled on 49’, Enzo Fernández headed City back in front on 58’, Nusa levelled again on 61’, and Haaland won it on 78’; Leipzig had 14 shots (6 on target) to City’s 12 (5 on target), with City on 64.6% possession. Before the game I wrote “the back line keeps conceding, the full-backs are a serious problem, with both teams to score as the fallback”, and 2 goals conceded and both teams scoring landed; “on paper City are a clear level above” was also right on the result. Right direction, right fallback, and the “City’s defence” read was confirmed: City’s previous game was a 0-1 loss to Brighton (Premier League), and here they conceded two more.
The Partial Hit: Fenerbahçe 3-2 Liverpool, Main Pick Missed, Over Fallback Landed
Nyoni opened the scoring on 25’, Greenwood equalised with a free kick on 29’, Isak put Liverpool back in front on 69’, Archie Brown levelled on 73’, and Muriqi headed in the winner on 79’; Liverpool had 22 shots (6 on target), 12 corners and 67.6% possession, Fenerbahçe 17 shots (6 on target). Before the game I wrote “that 0-1 wasn’t actually a bad performance from Liverpool” and “an easy win”, with over 3.5 as the fallback; Liverpool now have back-to-back games of “better process but lost” (17 shots and none on target losing to Arsenal last time, 22 shots losing to Fenerbahçe this time), and the over fallback landed (total 5). Main pick missed, fallback landed, so it’s a ⚠️. I wrote that Liverpool played well and would therefore win, and this game was again one where the numbers favoured them but they lost in the end. But this loss really had to do with Liverpool’s rotation: they made heavy changes to the starting line-up, and the back line clearly lacked understanding; such heavy rotation was something I really didn’t anticipate.
The Two Misses: Man United’s Comeback Against Roma and the Depleted-Bayern Premise
Manchester United 3-2 Roma. Roma led 2-0 through Soulé on 11’ and a Malen penalty on 17’, then managed only 7 shots all game; United had 15 shots (6 on target), Bruno Fernandes scored a penalty on 58’, and Cunha scored twice on 83’ and 86’ to turn it around; on 87’ Cunha was booked for “excessive celebration” and sent off on 90’+1 for a second yellow for a foul. Before the game I wrote “I’m backing Roma; nine winless games across all competitions says a lot”, with no particular fallback. Roma led 2-0 at half-time, and at 17 minutes my main pick looked completely right, but they lost in the end; United’s run of nine winless games in all competitions also ended here. I classify this as a miss: I admitted before the game that I don’t know Roma well, and this is the counter-example to “judging mainly on United’s results rather than Roma’s quality”; Roma did take the lead early, but afterwards wanting only to hold on became the biggest reason for their defeat.
Atlético 0-2 Bayern. Atlético had 9 shots (3 on target), Bayern 19 (5 on target), with Bayern on 58.5% possession; Lennart Karl scored on 54’ and Laimer on 74’, and Kane didn’t score. Before the game I wrote “Bayern are depleted by injuries, and I’m going against the market with Atlético”, with both teams to score as the fallback: Neuer, Kimmich, Olise and Kane all started, the starting XI had no Musiala or Díaz (the ones I listed as absent) but the other main players were there; Atlético didn’t score all game, so the fallback missed too. This was the biggest prediction error of the round: with Neuer back, the depleted Bayern showed more competitiveness than I expected, held most of the possession and overpowered Atlético with twice as many shots. The players who started in place of the injured ones performing well was the part I didn’t anticipate.
Pre-Match Squad Check: A Single Injury Page, and It Was Wrong in Several Places
My pre-match lists came from a single injury page, and I flagged ⚠️ in every game, but they still affected my judgement:
| Player | What I wrote | What happened (ESPN) | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neuer (Bayern) | Out with a foot injury; substitute Urbig with a suspected concussion | Started (Urbig on the bench, unused) | My “going against the market with Atlético” rested on a depleted Bayern, and that premise didn’t hold |
| Kimmich / Olise (Bayern) | Yellow-card accumulation, listed as suspension risks | Both started; Kimmich booked on 56’ | Risk didn’t materialise |
| Valverde (Real Madrid) | Out with a hamstring injury | Came on as a substitute and scored the winner from distance on 90’+2 | Pre-match list wrong |
| Vinícius (Real Madrid) | Not in Sunday’s squad, sources disagree on whether he’s suspended | Started | I flagged ⚠️ |
| Archie Brown (Fenerbahçe) | Straight red, out until 11/29 | Started and scored on 73’ | List wrong, and he scored the equaliser |
| Szoboszlai (Liverpool) | Not on the injury list (available) | Started | Right |
| Rodri / Cubarsí (Barcelona) | Injury page lists a suspension, I said “can’t confirm” | Both started | I flagged ⚠️ |
| Wirtz / Gakpo / Isak (Liverpool) | (not written) | All three were substitutes; Isak scored on 69’; Salah wasn’t in the match squad (neither starting nor bench, no reason from ESPN) | Rotation |
| Svilar / Dybala (Roma) | Out | The starting goalkeeper was Vásquez; Dybala wasn’t in the starting line-up | Right |
| Saka (Arsenal) | Out | Out (Madueke started and scored) | Right |
This table only checks the starting and substitute lists from ESPN’s match summaries; “absent” can only be judged from “not in the match squad”, and ESPN doesn’t give injury reasons.
Summary
Overall the predictions this round were fairly accurate, and of the two main misses, one was an unexpectedly heavy rotation (I did expect Liverpool might rotate, but not this much); the other was not having a firm enough grip on the injury situation, and as football kick-off times are unfriendly, I can’t realistically update the injury list at the last minute before the game, only predict from the previous few days’ news, so it’s inevitable that sometimes I’ll miss.
These verifications are for reference only; please bet responsibly.