Here is the verification of the matchday 3 pre-match predictions: of six predictions, 4 hit, 1 hit partially and 1 missed. The six games produced 33 goals, 5.5 per game, higher than the previous round’s 5.4, and every game went over 2.5 goals: City 5-1, PSG 4-2 Barcelona, Liverpool 4-3, Como 4-1 United, Real Madrid 4-1 Leipzig, and even Bayern 2-2 Arsenal had four. Five of the six at least partly hit, and the only one that missed completely was Bayern against Arsenal ending in a draw. I did think before the game that the two sides were very close, but I never expected it to really end level.
The Four Hits
Man City vs AEK (5-1). The result matched the pre-match call, but what I hadn’t expected was Foden completing a hat-trick, scoring in the 34th, 65th and 76th minutes, which together with his goal last week shows he really is in hot form; Cherki added a fourth in the 57th, and AEK’s only reply was Pilios in the 52nd. City had 10 shots in the first half, and AEK didn’t have a first shot on target until their goal. Before the game I wrote on the homepage card that “Haaland is very likely to open the scoring”, and that didn’t happen because Haaland was rested, but City’s depth meant it made no difference to the result; still, they conceded again, echoing the warning in the Premier League matchweek 7 verification that City’s back line is conceding too much. The over 2.5 goals fallback (6 goals) also landed.
Liverpool vs Villarreal (4-3). Both the main call and the fallback hit, and although the game was a little nervy the result was accurate, mostly because Liverpool didn’t field their full first team. The numbers still favoured Liverpool (xG about 2.37 to 1.58, shots 22 to 14, touches in the box 44 to 22), and young winger Ngumoha was named man of the match by several outlets with two assists. Before the game I said “Liverpool winning is not a problem”, and on the numbers that was so, but conceding three goals in each of two straight Champions League games (6-3 LASK, 4-3 Villarreal) is a defensive problem worth noting, and I’ll watch how Iraola solves it.
Como vs Manchester United (4-1). The main call hit, the “under 2.5 goals” fallback didn’t: I knew United were bad lately, but I didn’t expect them to be this bad, and the defending was far worse than I imagined on top of the attacking problems. They were beaten in the 2nd minute by a curling shot from Nico Paz, the second straight Champions League game in which United conceded within two minutes (47 seconds against Atlético). At half-time Carrick switched from a 4-2-4 pressing shape to a 3-5-2, taking off Andrey Santos and Cunha for Amad and Baleba to add bodies in midfield, and it only made things worse. Douvikas scored again in the 49th; in the 57th Baleba dropped into central defence and gave the ball away, and Paz scored again; and Maguire was out of position for Jacobo Ramón’s fourth in the 76th. United’s only reply was Zirkzee in the 90th+1, a bit of face-saving. More than the game itself, the best show may have been the post-match back-and-forth between coach and star: Carrick said he was “really angry”, and Bruno Fernandes publicly criticised the coaching staff’s pressing plan. With United winless in seven in all competitions (3 draws and 4 defeats, per Sky), a dressing-room storm looks unavoidable.
Real Madrid vs Leipzig (4-1). The main call and the fallback (over 2.5 goals, 5 goals) both hit, but I misjudged the line-up: I assumed that after Diomande’s good game last time he’d keep his place in the starting eleven, and I didn’t expect Madrid’s faith in their stars to be firmer than I thought, with the much-debated Vinícius brought back into the starting line-up and Diomande only coming on as a substitute in the 70th minute, while Mourinho also rotated heavily (Rüdiger, Carreras, Camavinga and Bernardo Silva started). Even so, Diomande’s form is the real thing, and he still scored after coming on. This game showed that when Madrid get their line-up right they really do still have potential.
The Partial Hit: PSG vs Barcelona (4-2), the Main Call Missed but the “Shootout” Read Landed
PSG vs Barcelona (4-2). Before the game we picked Barcelona to win with over 2.5 goals as the fallback, and PSG won 4-2, Barcelona’s first defeat of the season, but with six goals in total the over fallback hit, so it’s a partial hit. The main reason the main call missed was my pre-match belief that “Barcelona have Rodri, and their midfield can match PSG’s golden midfield”, which didn’t come true when Rodri was rested. With Rodri’s age and injury history it does make sense to find a moment to rest him in a dense schedule, but I had expected them to rest him in the derby against Madrid, since this year’s PSG is a more competitive opponent than Madrid and I guessed Barcelona would want to test Rodri against top opposition. But it seems Barcelona wanted to hide him and make sure of beating their arch-rival Madrid. It’s an understandable decision, and I somehow just didn’t think of it. Without Rodri, the result is no surprise, since the golden midfield’s power is hard to match at the moment. The numbers show it too: xG about 3.7 to 2.2, shots 22 to 18, shots on target 15 to 5, with two hits on the woodwork, and Barcelona keeper Joan García had to make two saves in the first five minutes; Flick blamed it afterwards on “tired players and too many mistakes”, and I mentioned before the game that “both teams only had three days’ rest”, but didn’t pay special attention to it. In addition, PSG’s Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia went off injured during the game, which will affect PSG’s coming schedule.
The Miss: Bayern vs Arsenal (2-2)
Bayern vs Arsenal (2-2). Before the game I picked Bayern to win with under 2.5 goals as the fallback, and it ended 2-2 (four goals), so both the main call and the fallback missed. This is the only ❌ of the round. Before the game I wrote: “Bayern have home advantage, but at most the squads and form are a coin flip” and “Arsenal’s attack is in a slump (only one shot on target against Forest last Sunday)”. Looking at the result, the “coin flip” read was actually right, I just didn’t dare back the draw; and the “Arsenal attack in a slump” line was thoroughly disproved in this game, though I’m quite happy to be proved wrong, because it’s all the better if Arsenal’s attack steadies. On the numbers, Arsenal had more shots and possession than Bayern (Sky), and even with Saka going off in the first 10 minutes with a quad injury, Arsenal still scored twice, which Arteta afterwards called a “special” performance. The Olise suspension and Kane dropping deep, which I was most concerned about before the game, turned out not to be as fatal as I thought: Kane proved he is still the same old Kane, with a goal and an assist. The “under 2.5 goals” fallback also missed: both sides played aggressively, pressing high all game, and although Raya and Neuer each made key saves, four goals still went in.
Takeaways
- Both “against the market” under fallbacks failed: the market was leaning to the over in both Como and Bayern (over 2.5 goals at 1.60 and 1.59), I went the other way in both, and the results showed I was still underestimating these teams’ attacking firepower, with both games reaching four goals or more; all six games went over 2.5. My assessment of the teams’ “attacking firepower” needs some correction.
- Defensive warnings: City, Liverpool (three goals conceded in each of two straight games), Barcelona (four conceded) and United (four conceded), and the teams that conceded this round weren’t few.
Although most of this round hit, the overall course was a little nervy, and several of the bigger misjudgements came from rotation. Haaland and Rodri being rested and Liverpool not fielding a full first team all threw my reading off a little, and since bench players’ situations are hard to gauge and I can only guess from news snippets and international matches, that is a big limit on prediction. It does remind me to judge teams’ injury news more carefully from here on, as the season goes on and teams get more and more conservative with star players’ workloads.
As always, please bet responsibly.