On Champions League matchday 4, PSG, Real Madrid, Liverpool and Villa all sit on 9 points, Arsenal have 7, Manchester City and Barcelona 6 each, and Manchester United have taken just 3 from three. All eight clubs I track are in action (last round’s predictions and verification are both up), and the weekend brought a lot of new information that affects the picks: Barcelona beat Alavés 6-1 and found their confidence again, PSG rotated heavily and still won 5-1 at Le Havre, United sank deeper after losing at Chelsea (Premier League matchweek 9 prediction guide), Bayern were pegged back by Dortmund in the 89th minute, Liverpool had 17 shots without one on target, and Manchester City outshot Brighton 21 to 7 and still lost. I’ll go through the eight games using form, injuries, schedule density, home/away records and what the odds say. Injuries and suspensions are the biggest variable this round; the lists below are cross-checked between an 11/3 injury page and the squads clubs actually fielded, so please defer to the official team news before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Roma: Nine Games Without a Win, Can Roma Pick Up the Pieces?
Kick-off: 11/4 (Wed) 04:00 Taiwan time / 11/3 20:00 UK local, Old Trafford. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 39 bookmakers): United 2.15 / draw 3.98 / Roma 2.94 (44% / 24% / 32% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 2.26 / under 1.61).
Form: United have just 3 points from three Champions League games (4-0 Sabah, 0-2 Atlético, 1-4 Como) and are now nine games without a win in all competitions; the 2-0 defeat at Chelsea last weekend leaves them on 7 points, 17th in the Premier League. Roma have 4 points (1-1 Fenerbahçe, 3-4 Real Madrid, 4-0 Slovan).
Schedule: United played at Chelsea on Saturday 10/31 and host Roma on 11/3 with under three days’ rest; they’re already out of the League Cup, so there’s no extra midweek burden.
Injuries: For United, Rashford (groin, expected back 11/7), Shaw (11/22), Dorgu (11/22) and Šeško (calf, January) are out; for Roma, first-choice goalkeeper Svilar (foot, 11/21) is out and Dybala (11/8) won’t make it either. ⚠️ This comes from a single injury page, so go by the official team news.
Home/away: United beat Sabah 4-0 at home in the Champions League but lost 4-1 at Como; Old Trafford is hardly a fortress for them right now.
What the odds say: The market has United as 44% small favourites, more than last week’s 41%; the draw is 24% and Roma 32%, so the price doesn’t seem to have factored in United’s slump.
Verdict: I have to be honest that I don’t know Roma’s squad or style well, but judging purely by United’s recent results, nine games without a win in all competitions already says a lot, so I’m backing Roma to win. As for a fallback, United’s firepower is a problem so I won’t take both teams to score or the over, but I’m not confident enough in the under either, so I’m not taking a fallback on this one.
Barcelona vs Aston Villa: Can Villa Hit the Back Line the Same Way Again?
Kick-off: 11/4 (Wed) 04:00 Taiwan time / 11/3 21:00 Spain local, Camp Nou. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 39 bookmakers): Barcelona 1.26 / draw 6.82 / Villa 8.66 (75% / 14% / 11% after removing the margin); main goal line 4.5 (over 2.09 / under 1.73).
Form: Barcelona lost to PSG (4-2) and Real Madrid (2-1, see the El Clásico prediction verification) back to back, but won 6-1 against Alavés on Saturday with 77% possession; Villa have won all three Champions League games (12 scored, 3 conceded, 6-0 against Fenerbahçe) and recently beat the then-unbeaten Manchester City 2-1 in the league.
Injuries: Barcelona are without Olmo, Koundé (ankle), García (muscle), Christensen (thigh) and Casado; against Alavés, Cancelo and Fariñas covered the flanks. ⚠️ The injury page lists Rodri (second yellow) and Cubarsí (straight red) as suspended, yet both started on 10/31, so I can’t confirm whether it’s a Champions League ban. Villa’s only listed absentee is Ruggeri (thigh).
Home/away: Barcelona beat Feyenoord 5-1 at home in the Champions League; Villa’s only away game so far was a 3-2 win at Brugge (the 6-0 against Fenerbahçe and 3-1 against Viking were both at home), so this is their second.
What the odds say: The market has Barcelona as 75% favourites and the main goal line is 4.5, so it expects a shoot-out.
Verdict: Villa are in remarkable form, having just ended Manchester City’s unbeaten run. In that game they spotted that City’s left-sided full-back was strong going forward but weak defensively and pushed too high, and kept targeting the space behind City’s left, causing real problems; meanwhile their powerful midfield smothered Cherki and stopped him from controlling the ball. Barcelona, having lost back to back in the Champions League and the Clásico, are also missing their first-choice full-backs, so Villa may try to attack Barcelona’s back line in the same way. But Barcelona’s firepower this season is staggering and they have every right to trade blows with Villa, which is a big reason the goal line is set at 4.5. Putting it together, I think Barcelona have the edge in an open game, so I’m backing Barcelona to win. As for a fallback, even with the line at 4.5, I still like the over (over 4.5 goals).
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern: A Depleted Bayern, and I Go Against the Market for Atlético
Kick-off: 11/4 (Wed) 04:00 Taiwan time / 11/3 21:00 Spain local, Metropolitano. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 39 bookmakers): Atlético 2.73 / draw 3.83 / Bayern 2.34 (35% / 25% / 41% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 2.09 / under 1.73).
Form: Bayern have 5 points in the Champions League (5-0 Bodø/Glimt, 3-3 Viking, 2-2 Arsenal) and on Saturday drew 2-2 at home to Dortmund, outshooting them 23 to 12 but being pegged back in the 89th minute, the latest in a run of games where they led and didn’t win; Atlético have 4 points (1-2 Liverpool, 2-0 Manchester United, 1-1 Stuttgart) and won 2-0 at Levante on Saturday despite being outshot 20 to 11.
Injuries: Bayern are without Musiala (thigh), Díaz (muscle), Gnabry, Saibari (ankle) and Neuer (foot); against Dortmund the goalkeeper was Urbig, who is reported to have suffered a suspected concussion after a collision in that game, and head coach Kompany is also said to be unwell. ⚠️ The injury page also lists Kim (second yellow), Kimmich and Olise (yellow-card accumulation) as suspension risks; check the official lists. Atlético are without Cardoso (thigh) and Koke.
Schedule: Both sides played on Saturday and have only three days’ rest, so neither gains an edge; the difference is how complete the squads are.
Home/away: Atlético have played only one home game in this season’s Champions League, a 2-0 win over Manchester United; away they lost 2-1 at Liverpool and drew 1-1 at Stuttgart. Bayern’s away form isn’t solid either (3-3 at Viking).
What the odds say: Bayern are still the favourites, but their margin-free probability has slipped from 48% last week to 41%, so the market has started to price in the absentees.
Verdict: The market slightly favours Bayern, but their injury situation is just too severe: midfield core Musiala and wingers Díaz and Gnabry are all expected to miss out, Saibari was hurt against Dortmund too, and it gets worse at the back, where Neuer is injured and even back-up keeper Urbig suffered a suspected concussion in the last game, while worst of all even Kompany has been taken ill, so this is a threadbare squad right now. Atlético, by contrast, are in good shape, “little spider” Álvarez is in decent form, and the Metropolitano is no easy place to visit. So I’m going the other way and backing Atlético to win. As for a fallback, although Bayern are decimated they still have Kane and Olise, so I like both teams to score.
Villarreal vs PSG: Two Forwards Down, but PSG in Europe Are Still Worth Trusting
Kick-off: 11/4 (Wed) 04:00 Taiwan time / 11/3 21:00 Spain local, La Cerámica. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 39 bookmakers): Villarreal 4.29 / draw 4.41 / PSG 1.68 (22% / 21% / 56% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 1.86 / under 1.94).
Form: PSG have won all three Champions League games (14 scored, 5 conceded) and on Friday won 5-1 at Le Havre (Hakimi hat-trick), heavily rotated and still winning; Villarreal have 3 points and lost 1-0 at home to Espanyol on Friday (63% possession, 14 shots to 5, but conceded in the 60th minute).
Injuries: PSG are without Dembélé (muscle), Marquinhos (thigh), Kvaratskhelia (cruciate ligament) and Nuno Mendes (muscle); Vitinha, Neves, Doué, Pacho and Fabián were all on the bench on Friday and are well rested. Villarreal’s only listed absentee is Akhomach.
Schedule: Both teams played on Friday and have four days’ rest, with PSG leaving a group of key players on the bench; of the eight games, this is the one where PSG are best prepared.
What the odds say: PSG are 56% after removing the margin, similar to last week’s 59%; the main goal line is 3.5 with over and under priced almost identically, so the market has no strong lean.
Verdict: Not much to say here. PSG’s front three are down to one, with Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia out, and defender Nuno Mendes still isn’t back, but PSG in the Champions League can always be trusted, so I’m backing PSG to win. As for a fallback, given the injuries I’ll take the under (under 3.5 goals).
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: The Gap Is Obvious, Rotation Is the Story
Kick-off: 11/5 (Thu) 01:45 Taiwan time / 11/4 19:45 Greece local. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 38 bookmakers): AEK 9.99 / draw 6.69 / Real Madrid 1.24 (8% / 12% / 80% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 1.80 / under 2.01).
Form: Real Madrid have won all three Champions League games and on Sunday won 3-0 at Racing Santander (22 shots to 10), with a Mbappé penalty and goals from Bellingham and Diomande; AEK have 3 points and lost 5-1 to Manchester City last time out.
Injuries: Rodrygo (cruciate ligament), Mendy and Valverde (hamstring) are out; Vinícius wasn’t in Sunday’s squad and sources disagree on whether a suspension still applies, ⚠️ so check the official team news; Courtois started on Sunday, so the pre-match talk of him being ill didn’t come true.
Schedule: Real Madrid played on Sunday, visit AEK on Wednesday and then go to Valencia on 11/7, three away games in a week, so rotation is the key storyline.
What the odds say: 80% after removing the margin, the most heavily favoured side of the eight, and the biggest gap in class.
Verdict: Another one with not much to say: the gap in quality is large, and since Real Madrid started giving Diomande more minutes the team’s spacing problems have eased and the wide threat has grown, so overall they’re settled again; against opposition a long way below them this should be a comfortable win. So I’m backing Real Madrid to win, with over 2.5 goals as the fallback.
Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: That 1-0 Defeat Wasn’t as Bad as It Looked for Liverpool
Kick-off: 11/5 (Thu) 01:45 Taiwan time / 11/4 20:45 Turkey local, Şükrü Saracoğlu. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 38 bookmakers): Fenerbahçe 5.44 / draw 4.59 / Liverpool 1.52 (17% / 20% / 61% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 2.15 / under 1.69).
Form: Liverpool have won all three Champions League games (12 scored, 7 conceded) but lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal on Sunday; Fenerbahçe have 2 points (1-1 Roma, 0-6 Villa, 2-2 Slavia) and haven’t won yet.
Injuries: Liverpool are without Frimpong (11/22), Bradley (12/2), Ekitike and Leoni (January); Szoboszlai isn’t on the injury list and came off the bench on Sunday, so he’s available. Fenerbahçe are without Aké (hamstring) and Archie Brown (straight red, out until 11/29).
Schedule: Liverpool played Arsenal on Sunday and head to Turkey on Wednesday with three days’ rest; with the League Cup penalty shoot-out included, that’s four games in 11 days.
What the odds say: Liverpool are 61% after removing the margin, up from 58% last week.
Verdict: Liverpool lost to Arsenal not long ago, but looking at the whole game they actually played well: they outshot Arsenal 17 to 10, and it was a lapse in the opening 16 minutes that cost them the match. So against a Fenerbahçe side a clear level below, I think an in-form Liverpool can win comfortably, and I’m backing Liverpool to win. As for a fallback, since Fenerbahçe conceded 6 in one of their last two games and 2 in the other, I expect an over (over 3.5 goals).
Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: The Biggest Price Gap of the Round
Kick-off: 11/5 (Thu) 04:00 Taiwan time / 11/4 21:00 Czech local. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 38 bookmakers): Slavia 10.23 / draw 6.11 / Arsenal 1.26 (about 7% / 12% / 75% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 2.28 / under 1.61).
Form: Arsenal have 7 points in the Champions League (1-0 Napoli, 3-0 Lille, 2-2 Bayern) and beat Liverpool 1-0 on Sunday to go top of the Premier League with 24 points; Slavia have just 1 point (2-3 Lens, 0-2 Sabah, 2-2 Fenerbahçe) and haven’t won yet.
Injuries: Arsenal are without Saka (thigh, 12/2) and Saliba (back, 11/21), while Calafiori started on Sunday; Slavia have four players out (Markovic, Schranz, Ouanda, Kante), impact unclear.
Schedule: Arsenal played Liverpool on Sunday and fly to the Czech Republic with three days’ rest.
What the odds say: Arsenal are about 75% after removing the margin, with under 3.5 at 1.61, so the market expects an Arsenal win without a big scoreline.
Verdict: This is the round’s biggest price gap, the difference in quality is huge and Arsenal are in good form, so a win shouldn’t be a problem and there’s not much more to say; I’m backing Arsenal to win. But since Arsenal’s attacking output is only average, I expect the fallback to be the under (under 3.5 goals).
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: After Two Straight Defeats, Can City Stop the Rot?
Kick-off: 11/5 (Thu) 04:00 Taiwan time / 11/4 21:00 Germany local. Odds (fetched 11/3, average of 38 bookmakers): Leipzig 5.17 / draw 4.70 / City 1.53 (18% / 20% / 62% after removing the margin); main goal line 3.5 (over 1.87 / under 1.92).
Form: City have 6 points in the Champions League (2-0 Porto, 2-4 PSG, 5-1 AEK) but have lost back to back in the Premier League to Villa and Brighton, being blanked by Brighton on Saturday despite 21 shots to 7 and 62% possession, and needed penalties to beat Brighton in the League Cup; Leipzig have 3 points (1-4 Como, 1-0 PSV, 1-4 Real Madrid).
Injuries: City are without Semenyo (knee) and Grealish (illness); Leipzig are without Esteve, Ouédraogo (shoulder) and Guiu.
Schedule: City played the League Cup on 10/28, Brighton in the league on 10/31 and now this one, three games in a week.
What the odds say: City are 62% after removing the margin, almost unchanged from last week’s 61%, so the market hasn’t lowered its faith in City after two league defeats.
Verdict: City have lost twice, their form really isn’t good, the defence keeps conceding, the full-back problem is serious, and last time they were shut out. Leipzig, by contrast, have won two in a row in the Bundesliga and are in good form. But on paper City are still far stronger, so I’m backing City to bounce back from the brink and take the City win. Given City’s recent defensive record, my fallback for this one is both teams to score.
The Limits of the Method This Round: Team Sheets Only Count at Kick-off
Last round in the Premier League we saw Manchester City lose to Brighton despite outshooting them 21 to 7, and Liverpool lose to Arsenal with 17 shots and none on target, a reminder that the side with more of the ball and the fiercer attack doesn’t always win. This round’s real headache is the injury wave: Bayern’s goalkeeper situation and head coach, whether Barcelona’s Rodri and Cubarsí are suspended, whether Real Madrid’s Vinícius can actually play — none of these lists are settled until the last moment before kick-off, and every judgement above rests on the information available now, so if a team sheet changes, the conclusion has to be re-examined. These predictions are for reference only; please follow the official announcements for injuries and line-ups. Betting carries risk, so please bet responsibly.