In the pre-match prediction I picked Barcelona to win based on current form, and that main pick missed. El Clásico finished Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona, with Mbappé scoring twice; his 87th-minute goal ended Barcelona’s nine-game league winning run and handed them their first La Liga defeat of the season. The both-teams-to-score fallback did land, so it counts as a partial hit.

Why It Missed: The Numbers Matched, the Result Didn’t

The match numbers were actually close to what I predicted. Beforehand I wrote that “Barcelona’s midfield and high pressing are far better than Real Madrid’s” and that “Vinícius being out is actually a plus for Madrid, since Diomande can tear down the flank”. Barcelona did have more possession, shots and shots on target, showing they really did control the ball and the midfield. But Madrid’s xG was higher, showing they were sharper at taking their chances, and Diomande did provide an assist and caused Barcelona’s defence plenty of trouble. What I didn’t expect was Barcelona’s attack going completely quiet in this game, with several good combinations never turning into goals. After the game, Barcelona coach Flick openly complained about the congested schedule, saying the team lacked enough rest. I wrote beforehand that Real Madrid had one day less rest than Barcelona, so Madrid’s physical load should have been heavier, but I probably still underestimated how much the load affected Barcelona.

Summary: More Chances Than the Opponent, but Lost on the Finish

This was one of the few games where the numbers matched expectations but the result didn’t. From the flow of the game, I think Barcelona did have plenty of chances, but several of their combinations lacked the final touch. Madrid, by contrast, had few chances on the ball over the whole game but took the key ones very well; I have to say Mbappé was very decisive in this game, and it makes you wonder whether not having Vinícius really matters.

Sometimes it just goes like this: you roughly read the flow of the game right, but the result isn’t what you expected, which is exactly why football is hard to predict. The fact that back-to-back games hit Barcelona’s legs harder than Real Madrid’s is also something I failed to predict. Beyond how dense the schedule is, the strength of the opponent changes how much energy a match drains too (PSG’s intensity is high, which took more out of Barcelona). That may be something I overlooked in my prediction. Betting always carries risk, so please bet responsibly.