The NBA Season Tips Off, With Three Blockbuster Games on Opening Night

The NBA fans have been waiting for is finally about to begin. Because NBA preseason games mostly don’t feature the starters, their value as a reference is limited, so we waited until the regular season began before bringing you NBA predictions. With 30 teams and so many games, we won’t be able to write a prediction for every one, so we expect to cover only the contenders and playoff-level teams. But opening night’s tradition is head-to-head games between the biggest draws! All three are loaded with storylines. The first is a clash of East powers: last season’s East regular-season leader, the Pistons, against a Celtics team that broke up its two-star duo over the summer. The second is last year’s champion Knicks against the 76ers, who have formed a four-star lineup with LBJ’s arrival — who comes out ahead, the champions or the super-team? And the last is a rematch of last year’s Western Conference finals, the Thunder against the Spurs — can the Thunder get revenge for last season?

1. Celtics @ Pistons (Taiwan time 10/21 03:00, US Eastern 10/20 3:00 p.m., Little Caesars Arena)

Odds: Pistons -2 / moneyline Pistons 1.83, Celtics 2.07 / total 221.5 (Pistons about 53% with the margin removed)

  • Front-office intent: Boston sent Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia in return for Paul George plus draft-pick compensation, and also signed Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley Jr., which brought payroll under the luxury tax and avoided the repeat-offender penalty. But swapping a former Finals MVP for an ageing Paul George is of course a drop in strength — it’s a move that looks to the future. As for Detroit, with the Jalen Duren contract saga finally settled they can at last look forward to a calm start to the season, but their offseason additions have to be called underwhelming, and with second ball-handler Tobias Harris gone, even more of the load falls on Cade Cunningham. Overall it’s a clash between second-tier title contenders.
  • Fit: Boston get their first pairing of Jayson Tatum and Paul George, while Detroit, having lost second ball-handler Tobias Harris, will have Cade Cunningham carry the ball-handling load alone, though they’ve added shooters like Isaiah Joe and Kevin Huerter to space the floor. Both sides have their own homework, and the opener will be the test of how far along their chemistry is.
  • Injury risk: Tatum only just returned from a major injury last season, and Paul George has had injury problems over the past several seasons, but both are expected to play healthy in the opener. Detroit currently has no reported injuries, and although Cade Cunningham’s workload is heavier this season and he may need rest mid-to-late season, overall both sides are at full strength for the opener!
  • What the odds say: The market has the Pistons as slight favorites (-2), but overall the gap is small — it’s essentially a coin-flip game.
  • Editor’s view: Both teams’ rosters changed a lot over the summer, so last season’s head-to-head data carries little meaning, and all we can do is analyze rosters, stars and coaching. Starting with rosters, both teams have their own strengths. Detroit have Jalen Duren inside — although he played terribly in last season’s playoffs, in the regular season he is an All-Star center after all. But on the wing and in the backcourt, Detroit’s lack of a second ball-handler will be magnified, and if Boston can come up with an effective defensive plan for Cade, Detroit’s whole offense could crash — and defensive schemes have always been Boston’s strength, with Derrick White’s defensive ability well known. In terms of star power, in earlier years I’d have backed Tatum + George without hesitation, but with one of them coming back from a major injury and the other ageing, Cade + Jalen now look like the more threatening pairing. On the coaching side, Boston’s staff has been well regarded for years, while Detroit’s coach failing to come up with any effective answer when they were taken to a Game 7 by Orlando in last season’s playoffs is a little worrying. Overall it’s very hard to call, but I agree with the market and slightly favor the young Pistons, who with fresh legs at the start of the season can take the opening win through energy and drive.

2. 76ers @ Knicks (Taiwan time 10/21 07:00, US Eastern 7:00 p.m., Madison Square Garden)

Odds: Knicks -5.5 / moneyline Knicks 1.47, 76ers 2.83 / total 230.5 (Knicks about 66% with the margin removed, the most one-sided of the three games in the market)

  • Morale and home atmosphere: The Knicks are the defending champions (their first title since 1973) and will hang their banner and receive their rings before the game (reportedly the first championship banner at MSG in 53 years), so the home atmosphere will be especially high. But home is home and the players are the players: with the Knicks and key championship members Towns and Hart failing to agree on contract extensions this offseason, the relationship between players and the front office has become a little delicate. On the 76ers side, LBJ’s arrival is naturally exciting, but with reports in preseason of Jaylen Brown and VJ Edgecombe pointing out defensive problems on the team, the overall atmosphere is also a bit delicate.
  • Fit: LeBron James and Jaylen Brown, along with Embiid and Maxey, form a “Big Four” that has expectations through the roof, but this is their first regular-season game, with no on-court record of working together. How will Maxey and Brown fit alongside LeBron, who also needs the ball? And how will they protect an ageing LeBron and an injured Embiid defensively? These are all things to watch. The Knicks, meanwhile, are almost entirely last season’s championship group, so there’s no chemistry problem at all.
  • Injury risk: LeBron is ageing, and Embiid has fought injuries for several seasons as well; add to that Ariel Hukporti’s Achilles tear in preseason that ends his season, and Tacko Fall’s hip concern, and the 76ers’ frontcourt is currently in even worse shape.
  • What the odds say: -5.5 implies the Knicks at about two-thirds, and the market widely favors the defending champions.
  • Editor’s view: The 76ers’ new four-star lineup is certainly exciting, but they’re facing the defending champions! The Knicks’ 16-3 record in last season’s playoffs proves that when this group is serious about winning, hardly any team in the league can match them. Even setting aside the 76ers’ early-season fit problems, on paper the Knicks are no worse than the 76ers’ four-star lineup, and between the starting fives it’s at most even. But in the transitions, factoring in both sides’ bench depth and frontcourt health, the Knicks are without doubt the better-placed team. So my stance is basically the same as the market’s: I think the Knicks are highly likely to win on the strength of last season’s championship chemistry and bench depth.

3. Thunder @ Spurs (Taiwan time 10/21 09:30, US Eastern 9:30 p.m., Frost Bank Center)

Odds: Spurs -2.5 / moneyline Spurs 1.72, Thunder 2.22 / total 231.0 (Spurs about 56% with the margin removed)

  • Head-to-head history: The two teams’ rosters changed relatively little over the summer, so the Spurs’ win over the Thunder in last season’s Western Conference finals carries real reference value. The key player of that series was undoubtedly Wembanyama, whose playoff performance last season completely overpowered Chet Holmgren and at one point even gave the latter a serious crisis of confidence. The Thunder added Aday Mara through the draft, an interior player who has looked excellent in preseason, but how much trouble can a rookie cause Wembanyama? I’m skeptical.
  • Roster depth: Although the two teams didn’t change much over the summer, the Spurs not only kept their existing roster but also signed Tobias Harris, a player with solid ball-handling and perimeter skills, which is an upgrade for the overall roster. The Thunder lost Lu Dort, a well-known defensive stopper, but in fact Lu Dort’s offense was in a slump last season and he’d already been pushed to the margins in the playoffs, so losing him isn’t a big loss. Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe aren’t irreplaceable either, so the Thunder’s roster hasn’t regressed much, and with Jalen Williams returning this season, the overall roster is at least level with, or slightly better than, the one that faced the Spurs in the West finals last season.
  • Home/away advantage: The Spurs are at home, which is a big plus for them.
  • What the odds say: Spurs -2.5 — the market’s confidence mainly reflects the Spurs beating the Thunder last season and playing at home.
  • Editor’s view: This is the only one of the three season-opening games where last season’s results can serve as a reference — the Spurs knocked the Thunder out in the West finals, so they have more confidence in the matchup, and with Wembanyama improving every year I expect him to go a level higher at the start of the season, and the roster adds the scorer Tobias Harris. On the Thunder’s side there’s Jalen Williams, and in the paint Aday Mara is another piece of “anti-Wembanyama armor”. But overall, unless they can solve the problem of Chet Holmgren being overpowered by Wembanyama, the Thunder will always be at a disadvantage in this matchup, so I personally favor the Spurs a bit more.

Round Summary

These three games are all contests between teams with a chance to win this season’s title, but title chances come in tiers: the Spurs and Knicks, last season’s Finals opponents, haven’t regressed this season, so they naturally remain in the top tier of title contenders. The Thunder, Pistons, 76ers and Celtics each have their own problems — the Thunder’s roster hasn’t improved, the Pistons are missing a second ball-handler, the 76ers have bench and frontcourt problems, and the Celtics have injury and fit concerns, and so on — which leave these teams slightly behind in title chances, and this is also reflected in the odds — even against the Thunder and 76ers, who are also seen as having a chance to contend, the Spurs and Knicks were still given very good odds, which shows everyone’s reading isn’t far apart. The Pistons and Celtics, because of their roster changes, make up the hardest game of the three to predict.

These predictions are for reference only. Injuries and lines move quickly around opening night, so rely on the official injury report, and please bet responsibly.

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