Compared to the wide-open Northwest Division, the Southwest picture is much clearer — it’s shaping up as a two-powers, three-rebuilds division. Last season’s Finals team, the Spurs, are still seen as top-tier title contenders by the odds this season, and the Rockets, led by Kevin Durant, remain a solid playoff-caliber side. The other three teams, by contrast, are all either mid-rebuild or gearing up for one, with limited competitiveness this year.
San Antonio Spurs: co-favorites for the title, back with a vengeance
Last season the Spurs rode a roster with little playoff experience all the way to the Finals; this offseason the group has developed further and picked up real big-game experience along the way, coming back stronger — no surprise the Spurs share the league’s best title odds with the Thunder right now. This summer they locked up Wembanyama on a new deal and signed Tobias Harris — a player who’s never made an All-Star team or won an award, but whose scoring ability is genuinely elite-tier, with years of consistent production, giving the roster a real boost in firepower and outside shooting. With the core group fully retained and now carrying real playoff mileage, they should keep developing further — as long as Fox stays out of his own head and the roster avoids any major injuries, this year’s Spurs are genuinely exciting to think about. I’d project a 60-plus-win team for the new season, and they’re my personal top pick to win it all.
Houston Rockets: back to health, back from the fire?
Since Kevin Durant joined last season, Houston have been seen as one of the league’s genuine title threats, but they ran into injury trouble — starting point guard Fred VanVleet was lost for the season, and Durant himself dealt with an ankle issue in the playoffs, leading to a first-round exit against an equally banged-up Lakers team. This season they added former DPOY Marcus Smart, a real upgrade to backcourt defense. But last season’s Durant-Şengün pairing wasn’t exactly seamless — Şengün’s lack of outside shooting got exposed further in the playoffs, and head coach Udoka had no real answer for opponents sagging off him defensively in the postseason. Unless Udoka or Şengün solves that problem this season, Houston will likely still struggle to make a real title push. Barring another injury run, 50 to 55 wins is a fair expectation for this roster.
Dallas Mavericks: the rookie-of-the-year leads the way, with a bright future ahead
After moving on from both Dončić and Anthony Davis, Dallas have officially committed to building around last year’s #1 pick and Rookie of the Year, Cooper Flagg, who genuinely impressed in year one. But NBA history is full of cases where a rookie benefits from opponents not yet knowing their game in year one, only to see production drop off sharply in year two once the league has figured them out. So while Dallas made some additions this summer, the main job next season is still developing Flagg further and helping him avoid the classic sophomore slump. Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II are also expected back from injury next season, and if Flagg’s development stays on track, this team could realistically brush up against the play-in bubble as early as this season. I’d project 35 to 40 wins, slightly below .500.
New Orleans Pelicans: standing pat — is the future in doubt?
Despite a poor record last season and plenty of outside doubt about the roster, the Pelicans surprisingly made no big moves this offseason — no trades executed, and with a crowded cap sheet, no outside stars signed either. They still seem to be fully committed to the Dejounte Murray, Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III combination. But Zion’s health concerns and Murray’s capped ceiling both make it hard to feel optimistic about this team’s season, and with Derik Queen impressing last season, Zion’s standing within the roster only gets more awkward. Bottom line, the Pelicans are stuck in an awkward middle ground right now — no good offers on the table to actually rebuild, not enough ceiling to compete as currently built, and a cap situation that’s a genuine mess on top of it all. It’s hard to find much to be excited about here. I’d project a season similar to last year’s, somewhere around 25 to 30 wins.
Memphis Grizzlies: closing the book on the past, starting fully over
After trading away former DPOY and interior anchor Jaren Jackson Jr. mid-last-season, Memphis moved on from former franchise face Ja Morant this offseason too, officially entering a full rebuild. They also drafted Cameron Boozer — a player who’s drawn attention since high school and the son of former NBA star Carlos Boozer. So the direction for this season is mainly about developing Cameron Boozer and stockpiling talent. Carlos Boozer was an All-Star and All-NBA Third Team-caliber power forward in his day — if Cameron can hit even 80% of his father’s peak level, that alone would be enough to lock down a starting spot in this league, and based on what he’s shown at the high school and college level, his ceiling might genuinely exceed his father’s. If that talent fully pans out, Memphis may have found themselves a real gem.
My take: the Spurs stand alone at the top, the other three are stockpiling for later
Overall, the talent gap in the Southwest is stark. The Spurs are in a class of their own as genuine title contenders, the Rockets are a solid playoff side, and the other three teams are all in rebuild mode, focused on developing young players or stockpiling talent. My projected order for the division: Spurs >> Rockets >> Mavericks > Pelicans > Grizzlies.