NBA opening week moves into its second day. There are eleven games on the card for Taiwan time 10/22, and I’m picking the two I find most interesting: Giannis’ first official game since his trade to Miami, with the Heat hosting a Timberwolves team built around the new Anthony Edwards and LaMelo backcourt; and the Warriors visiting the Lakers, two teams that changed their rosters in the preseason, although the Warriors’ injury list is absurdly long. Both are cases of “early-season chemistry”, which echoes what I said in the opening-night verification: early-season chemistry and a lack of warm-up are the biggest variables in predicting the NBA. I’ll break the games down along front-office intent, chemistry, injury risk, depth and market attitude. For where these four teams sit over the whole season, read this alongside the Eastern Conference prediction guide and the Western Conference prediction guide.
Timberwolves @ Heat: Miami’s Twin Towers vs Minnesota’s Two Guns, and Neither Side Has Any History
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/22 (Thu) 07:40 / US Eastern 10/21 19:40, Kaseya Center. Lines (fetched 10/21 22:45, Pinnacle): Heat -1.5 / moneyline Heat 1.85, Timberwolves 2.06 / total 239.5 (de-vigged, Heat about 52%).
Front-office intent: The Heat gave up a lot of assets to land Giannis, turning from a team on the edge of the playoffs into a possible contender, an all-in bet this season. The Timberwolves sent out Naz Reid and Julius Randle in a big gamble to get LaMelo Ball, putting the team’s future on the Edwards–LaMelo pairing (as I noted in the Northwest Division preview, both are ball-dominant stars and chemistry is the biggest question).
Chemistry: Of Miami’s three stars, Giannis, Bam and Klay, only Giannis played in the preseason, for half a game (14 minutes), so the three have almost no time together. Edwards and LaMelo were a pleasant surprise in the preseason, but preseason intensity is very different from the real thing, and whether they can reproduce those showings is an open question. This game is effectively two teams with no historical data feeling each other out.
Injury risk: Bam’s groin is the biggest question (he missed the end of the preseason, returned to practice on Sunday and said he expects to play, but sources disagree on his status), and if Dru Smith and Pelle Larsson are out, Miami’s bench gets even thinner. Minnesota is without the shooting of Donte DiVincenzo (recovering from an Achilles injury).
Depth: Miami’s bench problem was known when they traded for Giannis (the Southeast Division preview also flagged it as the biggest weakness), and Minnesota losing Naz Reid, a former Sixth Man of the Year, hurts as well. Both benches are unimpressive, but Minnesota’s is a little better.
Market attitude: Heat -1.5 with de-vigged odds of 52% to 48% is close to a coin flip, and the total of 239.5 is among the highest on the slate, so the market expects an offensive shootout.
Verdict: This is the Heat’s twin towers against the Timberwolves’ two-gun backcourt, and the market leans slightly to Miami. But that is almost purely home-court advantage, because laid side by side the two rosters are about even. The Heat have the twin towers plus Wiggins and Klay. Klay’s decline makes him a defensive liability, but everyone else is good at helping and rotating, so attacking him isn’t easy. The Timberwolves’ projected starters should be the backcourt duo plus Kuminga and Jaden McDaniels, with Rudy Gobert, a DPOY, inside: apart from LaMelo they have no real defensive weak spot, and everyone is good at helping and rotating. In terms of shot creation, LaMelo is right now one of the best in the league, and Edwards adds his own elite ability to attack the rim; Giannis offers the same on Miami’s side, but judging by Klay’s shooting in recent season openers and the preseason, his three-point shot is cold and may not punish the space Giannis creates. Because of Klay’s early-season touch, I actually think the Timberwolves are more likely to win, and I’m taking the Timberwolves on the moneyline. As the fallback, I actually think the game is more likely to go low, so the fallback is under 239.5. With no historical data at all, though, my confidence in this one isn’t high.
Warriors @ Lakers: A Warriors Team Missing Half Its Rotation, and How Long Can Curry Last
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/22 (Thu) 10:00 / US Eastern 10/21 22:00, Crypto.com Arena. Lines (fetched 10/21 22:45, Pinnacle): Lakers -6.5 / moneyline Lakers 1.43, Warriors 3.03 / total 234 (de-vigged, Lakers about 67%).
Front-office intent: (See the Pacific Division preview.) The Warriors are focused on 2027 and this season’s roster is basically a passing one, with Butler, Moody and Porzingis out and Draymond signed for just one more year. The Lakers are in the Doncic–Reaves two-star era and added Kessler to protect the rim, so they are the side that wants to win.
Chemistry: The Lakers’ starting group (Doncic, Reaves, Kessler plus defensive wings) hasn’t been tested in a real game. The Warriors are mostly last season’s roster, but without Butler and Porzingis, and with even Podziemski reportedly out injured and the franchise player Curry nursing an ankle injury (listed as probable on the injury report; Kerr says he’ll play, but his minutes may be managed), they have lost almost an entire starting lineup, and even with better continuity it will be hard to put up enough of a fight.
Injury risk: The Warriors’ absentee list is long (Butler, Moody, Podziemski, Porzingis), and although Curry’s ankle is listed as probable, if Curry leaves early the Warriors’ offence collapses outright. For the Lakers only Sexton is questionable.
Specific tactical flaw: The Lakers don’t have enough defensive wings, and who covers for Doncic and Reaves defensively is this season’s test. The Warriors are so depleted that even flaws they didn’t previously have now show up everywhere, on top of the age problem they already had.
Market attitude: -6.5 implies roughly a two-thirds win probability for the Lakers, widened a little from -6, as the market leans further toward the Lakers with Curry playing hurt and the Warriors short-handed.
Verdict: Honestly, these two teams aren’t in the same class and the gap is real. I didn’t really want to pick this game, but after looking at the rest of the day’s games, nothing besides Heat–Timberwolves gets more attention than this one. Butler and Moody being out has been known for a long time, and after Porzingis and Podziemski went down few people will rate the Warriors this season; add Curry’s ankle and I’d be more surprised if the Lakers didn’t win, so I’m taking the Lakers on the moneyline. The biggest question may be what style and competitiveness the Lakers show as a whole, which will affect their reputation for the rest of the season. I think that with Doncic leading, the depleted Warriors will lose the suspense early and drift into garbage time, so for the fallback I’d go under, with the fallback being under 234.
Both Games Test Judgment With No Historical Data
NBA injury reports allow a designation like probable, so whether a player like Curry plays is only known on the day, and even if he does, how many minutes he plays is unknown, which no pre-game analysis can account for. The Heat’s twin towers and the Timberwolves’ two-gun backcourt are both highly anticipated, but neither combination has been tested in a real game, so any pre-game judgment carries a degree of guesswork. These predictions are for reference only, so please check the official injury report and starting lineups, and please bet responsibly.