The pre-match predictions for Premier League matchweek 8 finished with 3 hits, 1 partial and 1 miss. Two stories dominated the weekend: City’s seven straight wins ended at Villa Park, with Haaland scoring but unable to stop Villa’s 2-1; and United lost 0-3 to Bournemouth, falling to 16th and eight games without a win, with Carrick’s job looking shaky. I backed Bournemouth not to lose before the game, which was my most confident and most contrarian call of the round.

5 Predictions: 3 Hits, 1 Partial, 1 Miss

(The detailed pre-match picks, scores and results are in the results table above.)

The Three Hits

Arsenal 2-0 Everton. The pick and the “under” fallback both landed, and the scoreline was almost exactly what I wrote beforehand (“1-0 or 2-0”), which also pulls Arsenal level with City on 21 points. This season’s Arsenal identity is still clear: the attacking explosiveness is a bit lacking, but the overall control and defence remain top class. Apart from that 0-3 against Brighton’s high-speed football, they have kept winning on the strength of their defending.

Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth. I backed Bournemouth not to lose with over as the fallback, and Bournemouth simply won by three. I wrote beforehand that United were “less careless than lost” and that “the attacking system doesn’t fit the players, which drags the defence down with it”, and this game confirmed all of it. What I didn’t see coming was Carrick dropping captain Bruno Fernandes to the bench. Solving a problem by removing the person who raises it doesn’t work in football, and United came out not better but worse. After the game Carrick said he doesn’t know what happens next, and Neville said the team is a mess. It was Bournemouth’s first win at Old Trafford; United are winless in eight, 16th, and just 1 point above the relegation zone.

Liverpool 2-0 Brighton. The pick landed, but the process differed from what I wrote: I said Barcola would get his first Premier League goal, and he didn’t score, though he did provide an assist (21’). Brighton, with the league’s best attack going in (23 goals), failed to score. Gakpo started (pre-match reports had his fitness unclear) and managed his first shot on target; Brighton’s Ayari had a big chance in the 14th minute and hit the post in the 36th, and Liverpool kept the clean sheet through key blocks from Jacquet and Araujo. The both-teams-to-score fallback missed, but the main pick did land. Liverpool move up to fourth.

The Partial: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City. I picked City to win with both teams to score as the fallback, and Villa won 2-1, so the fallback landed. I wrote beforehand that “City’s defence has been conceding for several games in a row” and that “with Villa’s full-backs out, Doku and Foden could cause big problems”. The second half of that read (the leaky defence) came true, while the first half (Villa’s absent full-backs being punished) was proved wrong: Nicolas Jackson opened the scoring in the 6th minute, Haaland equalised in the 52nd (assisted by Ndiaye), and Jackson scored again in the 60th, ending City’s seven straight wins (Arsenal draw level on points). Foden only came on at the start of the second half (he had just scored a hat-trick against AEK in the Champions League), and Doku was also ordinary, never posing much threat to a Villa side missing Wan-Bissaka and Ruggeri.

The Miss: Chelsea 0-2 Spurs

Chelsea 0-2 Spurs. I picked Chelsea to win with both teams to score as the fallback; Chelsea lost 0-2 and the fallback missed too, making this the only ❌ of the round. Beforehand I wrote that “Chelsea’s defence has problems, but at home with decent firepower, an end-to-end game suits them” and that “Spurs’ win was only against newly promoted Coventry, with all three goals from long range”, and both points were proved wrong: Chelsea managed just 7 shots, the fewest in the Premier League this season, Spurs had 70% possession in the first half, and Marmoush missed a big chance. The worry about Chelsea’s new goalkeeper Penders (Emiliano Martínez is out after being injured in the previous round against Everton) came true: in the 77th minute he put Fernandes’ corner into his own net (the “Premier League debutant Penders” I worried about beforehand, and the second Chelsea goalkeeper after Cech to score an own goal in the league), and Tel broke through alone to score in the 87th. Palmer was sent off in the 80th minute for a second yellow card (he had escaped a straight red earlier in the second half). It was also Spurs’ first clean sheet at Stamford Bridge since December 1986.

Summary: The Contrarian Call Landed, but Injury Lists Were the Biggest Variable

  1. The contrarian call landed: the market favoured United against Bournemouth (46%), I backed Bournemouth not to lose, and the result was 0-3. That call was based not on data but on the build-up of internal problems at the club; it now looks like Carrick’s job is as good as gone, and who United turn to next, and whether they can fix the dressing room, is one of the big storylines of this Premier League season.

  2. The distance between injury lists and pre-match predictions: the uncertainty over Saka and Gakpo before the games, plus João Pedro’s injury, were all items on the pre-match injury lists that could not be pinned down, which made the judgement harder.

I got Arsenal right this round, even the scoreline more or less. But my Chelsea prediction missed badly, and it looks like Martínez’s absence mattered more than I thought. His absence affected not only Chelsea’s defending but their attack too, since he is one of the better ball-playing goalkeepers around. I underestimated that influence before the game, and future Chelsea predictions need to weigh it more carefully. Betting always carries risk, so please bet responsibly.