All four of Matchweek 6’s headline fixtures are now over, so as usual let’s go back and check the pre-match predictions. The result this round: 2 hits and 2 misses, with no partial hits.
Four Predictions: 2 Hits, 2 Misses
(For the pre-match calls, scores and result of each, see the results table above.)
The Two Hits: Arsenal Nailed the Scoreline, but the Game Was Tenser Than Expected; Chelsea Hit on All Three Angles, Thanks to Highly Efficient Finishing
I even got the exact scoreline right for Arsenal vs Leeds, but the way the match unfolded was somewhat different from what I expected. I expected Arsenal might score first, but it was 0-0 at half-time, and Leeds took the lead in the 55th minute through James Justin. Only then did Arsenal, trailing, equalise through Riccardo Calafiori in the 62nd minute, before substitute Bruno Guimarães completed the comeback in the 70th. Before the game I said “if their second-ball problem isn’t fixed, Leeds could still nick a goal,” and Leeds did score first — though not from an aerial second ball, but from a defensive lapse at the back post after a pass. On the numbers, Arsenal’s xG was roughly 2.3 to 2.6 against Leeds’ 0.6 to 0.7 (varies by source), yet total shots were only 13 to 11, a smaller gap than the xG suggests — meaning Arsenal’s chances were clearly better quality, but it wasn’t an all-out one-sided domination of possession.
On Chelsea vs Bournemouth, my conclusion at the time was “rather than backing the result, I’d recommend both teams to score or a high-scoring game,” and all three angles landed: Chelsea won, Bournemouth scored, and there were six goals. But if you look at expected goals, there’s some luck in that call. Chelsea’s xG was only about 1.1 yet they scored five, while Bournemouth actually had 1.4 to 1.5, and shots were just 10 to 9 — in other words, Chelsea turned their chances into goals through extremely high finishing efficiency, with Jordan Henderson scoring twice (including a gorgeous free-kick), João Pedro twice and Morgan Rogers once. Going 2-0 up within three minutes directly decided the course of the game. It was also Chelsea’s first Premier League win since late August, yet they still didn’t keep a clean sheet — the defensive problems haven’t disappeared just because it finished 5-1 — so the pre-match “high-scoring, both teams to score” angle remains the most reasonable read for this side.
The Two Misses: Unexpected Factors and Game Flow — a Red Card Changed the Course of the Match
United vs Spurs is the game most worth reviewing this round. I picked United, on the grounds that “on attack and league position they’re still the more promising side,” and even wrote Spurs’ fate as “it’s just going to be downhill.” The game ended 1-1, and the numbers were actually on Spurs’ side: xG was 1.56 to 0.77 (another source has 1.62 to 0.80), and at half-time Spurs led shots 7 to 1 with an xG of 0.96 to 0.05. In the actual game, Bryan Mbeumo did put United ahead in the 73rd minute, but Spurs still equalised in stoppage time through a Dominic Solanke header, taking their third point of the season. So I did predict the shape of the first 90 minutes, and as for that last Spurs goal — who could watch it without saying, “that was a bit lucky, wasn’t it?” But wrong is wrong, and I have to admit that boiling Spurs’ problems down to “the worst attack in the league” was a bit presumptuous: they lost 2-3 last time and drew 1-1 this time, so their attack is slowly coming back. As for United, the draw leaves them with their worst start in 40 years, and Carrick’s position hasn’t got any safer.
Liverpool vs City was a different kind of miss, with an event I didn’t see coming: before the game I said “City are somewhat shaken by the financial case, and Haaland looks tired,” and on that basis backed Liverpool not to lose — City won 3-0. But it wasn’t a hugely wrong call either: right up to the 62nd minute, when Ryan Gravenberch was sent off for a second yellow card, it was 0-0, and the half-time xG even had Liverpool slightly ahead, 0.42 to 0.07 — and that 0.07 was City’s lowest first-half figure in the Premier League since March 2020, so you can imagine how much pressure Liverpool put City under in the first half. But after the red card City scored three in 13 minutes: Haaland, Jérémy Doku (68th minute) and Rayan Cherki (78th minute), with a full-match xG of 1.30 to 0.86, shots of 15 to 13 and possession of 65% to 35%. In other words, up to the red card, my “not to lose” call was basically fine, but that red card really did change the game, and no pre-match prediction could have anticipated it. Still, I have to admit that the read that “City will be affected by the off-field scandal” simply didn’t materialise: City’s manager said straight after the game that they wanted to answer the off-field noise with their football, and they certainly did. The defeat was Iraola’s first since taking charge, and Liverpool are now ninth, nine points behind City.
Even if you can put it down to luck and an unpredictable red card, a wrong prediction is a wrong prediction — but that is part of football’s charm. Betting carries risk; please bet responsibly.