Of the six big clubs this round, four face each other head-on (even if one of the six is currently rock bottom…). In the other two games, Arsenal lost last time out — can they bounce back? And Chelsea were also thrashed in their previous match, with reports of an on-pitch row between the back line and the goalkeeper — what will they change this time? Every game has its own storyline. I’ll walk through these matches using form, injuries, new-manager adjustment, morale and mentality, and what the odds are saying.
Arsenal vs Leeds United: Arsenal’s First Game After a Defeat Hinges on Winning Second Balls Back
Form: Arsenal are last season’s Premier League champions, but after four straight wins to start the season they lost their last game to Brighton, and heavily at that — 0-3, with their much-vaunted defence torn apart. Leeds, meanwhile, haven’t lost yet this season: five games, two wins and three draws, unbeaten in fifth place (9 points). But apart from the 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle, they’ve scored one goal at most in every other game, so their attack isn’t exactly impressive.
Injuries: Arsenal’s Saliba is out until November–December, Havertz picked up a muscle injury on international duty and will miss several weeks, and Tzolis has a thigh problem; Rice is expected to start; White, Hincapié and Mosquera are close to returning. For Leeds, Rodon is out and the extent of Wilson’s injury is still to be confirmed.
Gap in class / what the odds say: The market price of 1.25 implies roughly an 80% win probability (before the bookmaker’s margin), meaning it almost entirely writes off Leeds. Leeds’ unbeaten run hasn’t yet been tested against opposition at this level, and with Arsenal at home, the price is understandable.
Verdict: Last time out Arsenal ran into problems with physical duels and second balls, and Brighton overran them, which made their attack sluggish. But Arsenal are a team that adjusts quickly, and after the manager’s harsh criticism post-match, I expect them to fix that fast, and playing at home they should bounce back. Leeds lean on physicality and aerial bombardment this season, relying on a three-man midfield to grind and cut off the opposition’s supply, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin as the focal point of the attack. Their flank defence is comparatively thin, though, so Saka’s performance will be the key to whether Arsenal break them down. All in all, Arsenal have the better chance, but if their second-ball problem isn’t fixed, Leeds could still nick a goal. Around 2-1 looks like a reasonable scoreline.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Don’t Get Too Excited About Players Returning — This Chelsea Is Better Backed for Goals Than for a Result
Manager adjustment / new boss: Alonso is in his first Premier League season, having taken over in July; Bournemouth have swapped to Marco Rose (replacing Iraola, who went to Liverpool), and are winless so far — 2-2 with Newcastle, 2-2 with Brentford, 0-1 against Liverpool.
Form: Chelsea are tenth after five games with two wins, one draw and two defeats, goal difference -2, and lost 0-3 to Brentford just before the international break.
Injuries: On Chelsea’s side, the word is that Moisés Caicedo has fully recovered and can return to the starting midfield, but Cole Palmer and Reece James are still doubtful and may not be known until the last minute. At Bournemouth, Alex Scott suffered a thigh injury on England duty recently and is expected to be out for roughly six to eight weeks.
Home advantage and the odds: Chelsea are at home, with injured players coming back, and the odds still favour Chelsea.
Verdict: Although all the news so far is in Chelsea’s favour, their defence this season has been a mess, basically held together by goalkeeper Martínez alone, and they win by trading blows with the opposition through the front three and outscoring them. That makes games very hard to predict — you never know whether they’ll score more or concede more today. So purely from a betting angle, rather than backing the result, I’d recommend both teams to score or a high-scoring game — the more rational choice for this season’s Chelsea.
Manchester United vs Tottenham: El Sackico — Picking the Least-Rotten Apple
Morale and mentality: The media are calling this one “El Sackico”: whichever manager loses (Carrick or De Zerbi), his position will be shaky. Carrick has had United’s worst start to a season since 2014, while De Zerbi’s Spurs haven’t won in five, sit bottom of the table, and have scored only two goals in five.
Form: In theory, a clash between two big clubs (?) should be a major event. But this season they sit twelfth with one win, two draws and two defeats, against bottom with two draws and three defeats — cover up the badges and hardly anyone would care about this match.
Injuries: Bruno Fernandes has been playing through injury all along, Rashford and Mainoo pulled out of the England squad injured, and Baleba is expected back. Spurs: Porro has a hamstring injury, and van Hecke withdrew from the Netherlands squad with a foot problem.
What the odds say: 1.62 vs 4.75 — the market is backing “home advantage” more than “Carrick”, because both teams are in almost equally poor form.
Specific tactical weakness: Spurs’ attack is the worst in the league (two goals in five games) and their attacking form this season has been terrible. By comparison, United aren’t great either, but they’re still a bit ahead of Spurs.
Verdict: On this season’s evidence, these two aren’t so much competing to be better as competing to be less bad. Since winning on the back of a Bruno Fernandes hat-trick, United have taken just one draw and two defeats from three games, while Spurs haven’t won any of their first five, can’t score, and have a disastrous back line. So this is purely picking the least-rotten apple, and if I have to pick, I pick United — based on attack and league position they’re still the more promising side, and playing at home they might produce a pleasant surprise. As for Spurs… I backed them to bounce back last time; they did score, but the defence actually got worse, and having missed that chance, I think they won’t get a better opportunity to bounce back this season — it’s just going to be downhill.
Liverpool vs Manchester City: The Real Heavyweight Clash — I’m Backing Liverpool Not to Lose
Form: Liverpool are unbeaten in seven across all competitions, and in the league have two wins and three draws from five, unbeaten with three straight clean sheets; City are also unbeaten in seven under Maresca, five wins from five in the league and top of the table, and won 2-0 away at Porto in their Champions League opener (Haaland with a brace). But City have been hit by a serious off-field issue: an independent commission found 114 of the 115 alleged financial-rule breaches proven. City have appealed and no punishment has been announced yet, but it will undoubtedly take a toll on team morale.
Injuries: Liverpool: Isak has a minor knock from international duty (being monitored), Gakpo is fine; City: O’Reilly withdrew from the England squad injured, and Haaland asked to be substituted in Norway’s Nations League game against Portugal — Norway’s coach said it was down to workload and exhaustion rather than injury, so he should be fine to play.
What the odds say: City (2.15) are slight favourites even though they’re away; Liverpool’s habit of drawing (three draws in five) is also a clue to how the market has priced it.
Schedule density: Both teams have Champions League games on Wednesday (Liverpool away at LASK, City at home to PSG), so rotation and fatigue will need to be considered after this game.
Verdict: Compared with United and Spurs, this is the one that’s truly a clash of giants — City are top of the table; Liverpool are only sixth, but they’re at home and unbeaten in five, so they’re certainly a tough nut to crack. The odds show how closely people rate the two — City are slight favourites, but excluding the draw it’s only about 60-40. I personally disagree this time: I think City are somewhat shaken by the financial case, and Haaland looks tired after continuous action. Meanwhile several of Liverpool’s key players have performed well for their national teams recently, and they’re at home — add the whistle City got in their last meeting with United… and I don’t think the Premier League will let this one become too one-sided, so I back Liverpool not to lose.
What I Can’t Call Well This Round: Two Games Decided by Nerve
Of these four games, two are genuinely hard to call from data alone. United vs Spurs is about which manager gets backed into the corner first, and Liverpool vs City is two unbeaten runs, one of which must end by Sunday unless they draw — the odds put it around 60-40, which only tells you the market thinks City have a slight edge, not which dressing room is steadier. Form, injuries and odds all have blind spots, and everyone weights these factors differently — my view is just one of them. As always, all of the above is for reference only; please bet responsibly.