Both headline games on October 30 (US Eastern) are finished. My pre-match predictions were Rockets to win, Knicks to win, with an over 226 fallback for the first game and an under 227.5 fallback for the second. Both home underdogs won outright: the Mavericks beat the Rockets 116-111 and the 76ers beat the Knicks 98-93, so both moneyline picks missed, while both over/under fallbacks landed, although the Rockets game’s total of 227 cleared the line by just 1 point. (For the previous round, see the previous verification.) Numbers here come from NBA official box scores; reasons for absences come from ESPN.
| Game (away @ home) | Pre-match pick | Pre-match line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets @ Mavericks | Rockets moneyline (1.42); fallback over 226 | Mavericks +6, total 226 | Mavericks 116-111 | ⚠️ Moneyline missed, over fallback landed (total 227, clears by 1); Mavericks +6 covered |
| Knicks @ 76ers | Knicks moneyline (1.81); fallback under 227.5 | 76ers +1.5, total 227.5 | 76ers 98-93 | ⚠️ Moneyline missed, under fallback landed (total 191, 36.5 below); 76ers +1.5 covered |
The pre-match lines are a Pinnacle snapshot taken on the evening of October 30. Records now: Rockets 5-1 (first loss), Mavericks 4-2 (three straight wins), Knicks 2-4 (fourth loss), 76ers 5-1.
Rockets 111-116 Mavericks: Two of My Three Pre-Match Worries Came True, but the Three-Point Line Decided It
How it went: Houston went on a 31-17 run in the second quarter, led 51-44 at half and still led 84-76 after three; Dallas won the fourth quarter 40-27 to flip it. The lead changed hands 9 times, with Houston’s biggest lead 11 and Dallas’s 7.
I rested my Rockets pick on the assumption that Dallas’s offence stalls without help beyond Flagg and Irving, and these two knocked it down: Irving scored 35 with 9 assists (12/19, 5/8 from three), Flagg 33 with 9 rebounds and 6 assists (13/19), together 68 points, 58.6% of Dallas’s 116. The other starters, Washington 3 points (1/8) and Christie 2, barely registered. It’s a win carried by two players, and the over-reliance on two players that I treated as a weakness before the game was the strength this time.
Of the three Dallas weaknesses I flagged, two happened as written and one reversed, but none decided the game:
- Turnovers: Dallas 17, Houston 12, so the direction was right, but Houston turned them into only 17 points, while Dallas scored 20 off Houston’s 12.
- Rebounding: Houston 62 to 50, 20 to 12 on the offensive glass, 20 to 6 in second-chance points, also the right direction.
- Fast breaks: completely reversed. I cited the 10/21 game where Dallas gave up 29 fast-break points; this time Dallas scored 28 and Houston 10, and Houston’s own 12 steals didn’t turn into transition points.
Houston had 12 more rebounds and 4 more steals, but lost on shooting: 7/29 (24.1%) from three against Dallas’s 12/33 (36.4%), a 15-point gap from the arc alone, and 41.7% overall against 51.9%. Durant scored 28 but went 1/6 from three; Jabari Smith Jr. scored 22 on 3/7 from three and was a team-worst -9.
On injuries, Sengun, listed questionable before the game, was out (ESPN: low back soreness) and so was Sheppard; Marshall didn’t play, and ESPN lists that as a coach’s decision, not an injury. I expected Eason to take Sengun’s starting spot, and that was wrong: Capela started (5 points, 11 rebounds) and Eason came off the bench for 25:45 with 11 points and 13 rebounds. The interior didn’t collapse and Houston won the rebounding, so I can’t pin this loss directly on Sengun. My “Houston slightly deeper” claim didn’t show either: bench scoring was level at 25-25, and Bogdanović played just 10:40 for 6 points and a -9.
The over 226 fallback landed, but barely: the total was 227, just 1 over. The first three quarters produced only 160 points, and it took 67 combined in the fourth to push the game over the line. My pre-match reasoning of “Houston’s games average 231.8” pointed the right way, but the two teams combined for 177 shots, so the pace wasn’t especially fast.
| Rockets | Mavericks | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarters | 20-31-33-27 | 27-17-32-40 |
| FG | 40/96 (41.7%) | 42/81 (51.9%) |
| 3PT | 7/29 (24.1%) | 12/33 (36.4%) |
| Rebounds (offensive) | 62 (20) | 50 (12) |
| Turnovers | 12 | 17 |
| Fast-break points | 10 | 28 |
| Bench points | 25 | 25 |
Knicks 93-98 76ers: The Knicks Won the Boards, Lost the Shooting, and the “Offence Recovering” Call Didn’t Happen
How it went: Philadelphia took a 29-21 lead after one quarter, led by as many as 14, and the lead changed hands only 4 times; the Knicks’ biggest lead was 1.
On pre-match injuries, two calls were right and one I should be straight about. The right one was Brown, the biggest variable: he doesn’t appear in the 76ers’ box score and neither the official one nor ESPN gives a reason, so all I’ll say is that he didn’t play. Dean Wade filled the starting spot and played 26:48 for 0 points and a -6, so that spot gave nothing. The other right call was “no back-to-back, so the stars will play”: LeBron played 34:15 for 20 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists, and Embiid played 33:12, but he shot 3/12 for 10 points with 4 turnovers, so he wasn’t why Philadelphia won.
I was wrong in two obvious ways. First, “the 76ers’ bench is thin”: Philadelphia’s bench scored 28 to New York’s 19, and Simons came off the bench for 31:29 and scored 21 (7/11, 5/8 from three). I had actually named him as one of the few reliable reserves, but I underestimated how much one of them could do. Second, “the Knicks’ offence is recovering and the 76ers’ offence ranks 26th”: Philadelphia shot 49.3% and 35.3% from three, well above their season average, while the Knicks stayed cold, Brunson 8/22, Hart 2/9, Anunoby 4/10 and Shamet 0/3, with only Bridges at 12 points (5/8) looking normal. Towns had 22 points and 12 rebounds, the Knicks’ best player, but couldn’t carry the team.
My pre-match call of a steady Knicks rebounding edge was right: rebounds 51 to 46, offensive rebounds 14 to 5, second-chance points 20 to 7, but the extra chances didn’t turn into a win because the Knicks shot only 40.7% to Philadelphia’s 49.3%.
The under 227.5 fallback landed with a total of 191, which is 36.5 below the line and below both teams’ lowest total in their first five games (Knicks 206, 76ers 199). Before the game I warned that “the 76ers’ pace of 104.0 is the opposite case for the under”, and it didn’t matter: the two teams combined for only 161 shots.
| Knicks | 76ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarters | 21-23-24-25 | 29-24-24-21 |
| FG | 35/86 (40.7%) | 37/75 (49.3%) |
| 3PT | 13/41 (31.7%) | 12/34 (35.3%) |
| Rebounds (offensive) | 51 (14) | 46 (5) |
| Turnovers | 13 | 14 |
| Second-chance points | 20 | 7 |
| Bench points | 19 | 28 |
Summary: I Got the Absences Right, but Not Who Would Fill In
In both games I treated injuries as the biggest premise: the three absences I warned about beforehand, Sengun, Marshall and Brown, all came true, but none of them explains the result on its own. In Houston’s game the interior cover held up, and the loss came from the three-point line and a 27-point fourth quarter; in Philadelphia’s game Brown was out, Wade filled his starting spot and delivered nothing, and it was Simons who turned the bench into an advantage. What really changed the games was something I wrote outside the injury report: Flagg and Irving combining for 68 points on better than 50% shooting, and the 76ers holding New York to 40.7% from the field.
Two moneyline misses and two fallbacks that landed looks like an even split on paper, but the fallbacks didn’t land because I read the games well: the Rockets game’s total of 227 beat 226 by 1 point, with only 160 through three quarters and 67 combined in the fourth carrying it over the line; the Knicks game’s 191 came from Hart 2/9, Anunoby 4/10 and Embiid 3/12 all going cold together, which nobody could have predicted before tip-off. I treated the official injury report as the premise, but I didn’t expect that what decided the games would be how well the people who did play played, not only who didn’t. This verification is for reference only; please bet responsibly.