Both focus games from day eight of NBA opening week are done, and the pre-game predictions hit on both, with both fallbacks landing too: the Knicks beat the Pistons 111-97, ending their three-game losing streak, and the Trail Blazers beat the Lakers 136-129 at the Lakers’ home arena (I picked the Blazers to win and over 234, with a total of 265). But the way these two “hits” happened doesn’t fully match the reasons I wrote beforehand. (For how the previous round went, see the previous verification.)
| Game (away @ home) | Pre-game call | Pre-game line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons @ Knicks | Knicks to win, fallback under 219.5 | Knicks -4, total 219.5 | Knicks 111-97 | ✅ (fallback: total 208, under, hit, not needed) |
| Trail Blazers @ Lakers | Trail Blazers to win, fallback over 234 | Lakers -2, total 234 | Trail Blazers 136-129 | ✅ (fallback: total 265, over, hit, not needed) |
Knicks 111-97 Pistons: The Reasons Mostly Held, and Towns Dominated a Frontcourt Without Duren
Knicks 111-97 Pistons. Beforehand we said the Knicks (the defending champions) still had their defensive base and system and would win as long as the perimeter shots fell, and that the Pistons missing Duren would leave questions inside (see the Central Division preview on the Pistons’ frontcourt). Both points were basically right: Bridges finally opened his three-point account for the season (4/8 from three, 12 points, ending his 0-for-10 start), and the Knicks played with relative ease. Towns pulled down 20 rebounds (27 points on 12/21), 8 of them offensive, so the Pistons’ frontcourt really was overwhelmed by him. Brunson shot only 5/18 but went 13/16 from the line to hold up his scoring, the Knicks as a team shot 23/28 from the line against the Pistons’ 14/24, and off the bench Shamet scored 13 (3/5 from three) and Drummond added 10 in only 14 minutes (plus-minus +16). For the Pistons, starting centre Reed scored 22 (9/12), but Robinson shot 2/10 from three, the team shot 9/37 (24.3%) from three, Collins had only 2 points, and Cunningham had 19 points and 8 assists on 7/18 shooting. The fallback “under 219.5” also landed with a total of just 208, but that was because the two teams combined to make only 21 of 73 threes.
Trail Blazers 136-129 Lakers: The Main Pick Hit, but “Dončić’s Stamina” Never Happened
Trail Blazers 136-129 Lakers. Beforehand I thought Dončić, on only one day of rest and with his stamina down, might not be able to carry the team alone, but he still scored 41 with 9 assists in 36:45, as strong as ever, so the stamina reason didn’t hold. What actually made my prediction right were the other two reasons I mentioned: the Blazers being the more complete team, and the Lakers’ poor backcourt defence (see the Northwest Division preview and the Pacific Division preview). Against the Lakers’ defence, the Blazers shot 59% from the field and 50% from three (18/36), almost helping themselves from the perimeter, and the Lakers giving up 136 shows why their defensive rating is only 19th in the league is no accident; the over landed easily (265, 31 above the line). Avdija had 23 points and 9 assists and did make use of his matchup edge, with Morant adding 23 (9/13), Holiday 22 (8/12), Lillard 21 (4/8 from three) and Robert Williams III 14, while reserve Henderson had only 2 points and 5 turnovers, which didn’t matter. For the Lakers, Reaves played the full 39:15 for 26 points, reserve Mamukelashvili scored 17, and Kessler had 13 points and 8 rebounds but 4 turnovers.
Summary: Two Hits, but for Different Reasons
In the Knicks game I did foresee Bridges’ shooting recovering and Towns having a big edge against a Pistons frontcourt without Duren, so both the call and the reasons were right. In the Lakers game the call was right, but the main reason was not Dončić’s declining stamina; it was the defence and roster-completeness points I raised on the side, and neither of those was what I considered the main reason before the game, just something I mentioned in passing, so I can’t say my reasoning really landed.
Even though I got both games right, will Bridges’ shooting cut out again at any moment? With such a small sample it’s far too early to say. Sometimes a small sample is more dangerous than no data at all, because its bias more easily misleads our judgement, so betting carries risk; please bet responsibly.