All three focus games from day four of NBA opening week are done, and the pre-game predictions finished with 1 hit, 1 partial and 1 miss: the Rockets won 114-110 at the Spurs (hit); the Pistons crushed the Heat 128-111 (I picked the Heat, but the over fallback landed); and the Celtics beat the Knicks 107-103 (I picked the Knicks and the over fallback missed too, the only complete miss). I picked the over as the fallback in all three games and it landed only once, because in two of the three the assumption I was betting on, that stars’ shooting would settle down, was only half right.
| Game (away @ home) | Pre-game call | Pre-game line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks @ Celtics | Knicks to win, fallback over 223 | Celtics -3, total 223 | Celtics 107-103 | ❌ |
| Pistons @ Heat | Heat to win, fallback over 235.5 | Pistons -1, total 235.5 | Pistons 128-111 | ⚠️ (fallback: total 239, over, hit) |
| Rockets @ Spurs | Rockets to win, fallback over 229 | Spurs -5.5, total 229 | Rockets 114-110 | ✅ (fallback: total 224, over missed, not needed) |
Rockets 114-110 Spurs: Right Side, but the Over Missed
Rockets 114-110 Spurs. Beforehand I wrote that “if the Spurs still plan to use a three-guard lineup, the Rockets will have the edge” and that “I like the Rockets’ firepower and Wembanyama’s shooting settling down”. Those calls were basically all correct: the Spurs stayed small (the starting five was identical to the first game: Castle, Vassell, Wembanyama, Harper, Fox, with Fox’s wrist injury not keeping him out in the end), Wembanyama’s shooting did settle down (25 points on 9/21 and 13 rebounds, after 1/13 in the previous game), and they did suffer defensively, unable to stop Sengun and Durant. (This echoes the doubts about the Spurs’ three-guard defence in the Southwest Division preview.)
Pistons 128-111 Heat: I Was Wrong That the Heat’s Shooting Would Settle, but the Over Landed
Pistons 128-111 Heat. I picked the Heat, mainly on the reasoning that “if just one or two Heat players get their shooting back, this game favours Miami”. What I didn’t expect was the Heat’s three-point shooting getting even worse (15/51, 29.4%, after 24.2% last game), with Klay going 2 for 11 (all threes); the slow-start problem I raised in my last prediction showed up again here. Wiggins shot 3/12 and Hardaway 2/7, and Giannis’ 36 points (15/26) couldn’t save them. Bam fouled out after only 23 minutes. On the Pistons’ side, Duren played only ten minutes before leaving injured, and Cunningham had just 16 points, 8 assists and 7 turnovers; my pre-game call that he “wouldn’t chuck up threes” was right, but the Heat’s poor defence let the Pistons’ shooting from three go very smoothly (47.4%), with Collins (5/6) and Robinson (5/10) completely torching the Heat’s perimeter defence. The fallback “over 235.5” landed with a total of 239, because the Pistons alone scored 128. (For the pre-season read on these teams, see the Central Division preview and the Southeast Division preview.)
Celtics 107-103 Knicks: My Pre-Game Read on Tatum’s Shooting Was Wrong
Celtics 107-103 Knicks. I picked the Knicks: “if Tatum’s shooting is still ice cold, the Celtics will lack the ability to create their own shot, and George is too old to carry a whole game’s offence. And the defence of Anunoby and Bridges, both of defensive-team calibre, will make it harder for Tatum than in the Pistons game”. But Tatum scored 36 (14/26) with 7 assists, fully back, which fits what I said beforehand about Tatum often being hot one night and cold the next, and his shooting recovery wrecked every premise of my prediction, so the result naturally went against me. What’s worth noting is that the Knicks are in worse shape than imagined: they have lost three straight to start the season (the opening night loss to the 76ers, this game, and then the Magic after it), and it looks like the contract fallout is hurting more than expected, with Bridges going 0 for 8 in this one. (For the team’s pre-season positioning, see the Atlantic Division preview.) The fallback “over 223” missed too, with a total of only 210, 13 below the line: I wrote beforehand that “both teams’ shooting should recover from the opener”, but the two teams shot just 45.0% and 46.0%, not enough of a recovery to produce a high total. This was the only game of the three where both the main pick and the fallback missed.
Summary: Shooting Is Hard to Call, and the Fallback Landed for Reasons I Didn’t Write
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Shooting form really is hard to call: Tatum settled down, and did it against stronger defence while leading his team to the win; Wembanyama settled down too, though the Spurs’ biggest problem right now is defence; the Heat’s perimeter shooting not only didn’t settle but got worse.
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The over fallback landed in only one of three games: totals of 210, 239 and 224, and only the Heat game went over; that came from the Pistons scoring 128, not from the Heat’s shooting settling, so the fallback landed, but for reasons completely different from what I wrote beforehand.
So far this season both the Heat and the Knicks are in worse shape than expected, with the Knicks now on three straight losses and the Heat on four (they lost to the Mavericks again on 10/26). The Knicks’ problem is team morale hurt by the contract situation, with the whole squad’s fight and form clearly below last season. The Heat’s problem is even more serious: everyone saw the spacing problem of the twin-tower offence coming in the pre-season, but not how bad it would be, and Bam looks like he simply can’t play in this system. The defence everyone thought was their strength hasn’t been as strong as expected either; the mobile Bam–Giannis pairing hasn’t shown its rotation and switching advantages at all, the perimeter keeps getting torched, and Wiggins’ defence this season is nowhere near expectations, leaving Mitchell to hold it together alone (the problems from the Timberwolves game were already visible in the previous verification). It’s hard to predict when this kind of chemistry problem will improve, so betting always carries risk; please bet responsibly.