The headline game of NBA opening week’s tenth day is over. My pre-game prediction was: “Cavaliers on the moneyline, provided both teams play at full strength.” Both teams’ starting fives did all play, yet the Cavaliers lost 111-114 to the Hawks. The score was close and a tie looked possible in the fourth quarter, but the prediction missed, and Atlanta ended its three-game losing streak. (For the previous round’s results, see the previous verification.)
| Matchup (away @ home) | Pre-game prediction | Pre-game line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers @ Hawks | Cavaliers moneyline (provided full strength) | Hawks -1, total 238.5 | Hawks 114-111 | ❌ (Cavaliers moneyline missed; Hawks -1 covered; total 225) |
Hawks 114-111 Cavaliers: Full Strength, Still a Loss, and the Game Was Taken by Someone I Wasn’t Watching
Hawks 114-111 Cavaliers. I rested the prediction on “both teams play at full strength,” and that condition held: both starting fives played, and the pre-game lists lined up (the Hawks were missing only Gueye and Veesaar), so this loss can’t be blamed on injuries or rest, and my inference that the near pick’em line wasn’t because someone was out was correct. The game itself: the Cavaliers led 28-16 after the first quarter with a biggest lead of 15, the Hawks hit back 30-16 in the second and led 46-44 at the half, and the lead changed hands only once for the whole game. The win puts Atlanta at 3-3, not far from the play-in line I projected in the Southeast Division preview.
Only part of my pre-game reasoning held up. I said Johnson would look strained against the Cavaliers’ twin towers, which was half right: his offence was indeed rough, 17 points on 7/16 with 4 turnovers, but he added 8 rebounds and 7 assists and helped the team in other ways. The one who really took the game was Okongwu: 29 points and 12 rebounds on 11/17, holding his own in the paint matchup, which I hadn’t expected. Another player I didn’t analyse pre-game was Wiggins, who scored 20 points (8/14) off the bench in just 23:55, with a +17 that was the best in the game.
I also said the Hawks’ defence had dropped to 26th in the league over the last three games, and that is half right, half wrong too: the Cavaliers scored only 111 and shot 31.0% from three, with Mitchell 1/9 and Watson 0/3, but judging by what happened, it was more that Mitchell chose poor shots and Watson still hasn’t fit into the team’s system, not that the Hawks’ defence suddenly got good. The Hawks’ rebounding didn’t collapse as feared either: they won the boards 61 to 54, with 15 offensive rebounds to 9.
The two ways I expected the Cavaliers to win didn’t show up. Harden scored fine (24 points on 7/14, 3/8 from three, a recovery from his 18/55 start), but had only 4 assists and 3 turnovers and didn’t lift the whole team through assists and the pick-and-roll; McCollum shot 1/8 for 5 points, poor on offence, but he wasn’t targeted on defence. I also said the perimeter defence of Daniels and Dort would make life hard for Harden, which wasn’t borne out either: Daniels scored 4 (2/8) and Dort 6, while Harden had 24 and Mitchell 22, so at least Harden wasn’t shut down. As for the line, the market was right: Hawks -1 meant about 50.9% for Atlanta after removing the margin, and the Hawks won and covered, so my conclusion amounted to “the market underrates the Cavaliers,” and this time the market came out slightly ahead.
| Cavaliers | Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter scores | 28-16-38-29 | 16-30-43-25 |
| Field goals | 38/87 (43.7%) | 42/95 (44.2%) |
| Threes | 13/42 (31.0%) | 17/43 (39.5%) |
| Rebounds (offensive) | 54 (9) | 61 (15) |
| Assists / turnovers | 26 / 9 | 34 / 11 |
| Fast-break points | 4 | 15 |
| Bench points | 36 | 34 |
Takeaway: Taken Over by Someone I Didn’t Expect
I analysed a lot, and the game was taken over by someone I didn’t expect. My pre-game analysis centred on stars like Harden, Johnson and Mitchell, and I never imagined the deciding players would be Okongwu and Watson. Okongwu didn’t give an inch against the Cavaliers’ twin towers, and with 28 seconds left he grabbed the key offensive rebound and put it back, restoring Atlanta’s lead from 1 to 3 and sealing the win; he closed the inside gap I had assumed between the two teams, and that is the main reason my prediction failed. The secondary factor is Watson’s slump: he made his name in Denver last season and showed ball-handling potential, but since arriving in Cleveland he hasn’t found his old form, and whether he turns into a bad contract remains to be seen.
Honestly, after the first quarter I thought the prediction was safe, and then in the second quarter the Cavaliers suddenly collapsed: besides missed shots there were plenty of sloppy turnovers (5 in the second quarter alone, more than half of their 9 for the game), and once the Hawks swept the game away the Cavaliers never caught up. Late on they got within one possession by drawing a few fouls, but it wasn’t enough. Looking at the whole game, Okongwu’s breakout was something I never saw coming; since Harden arrived last season the Cavaliers’ twin towers still seem not to have found their best role, and this time even the defence and rebounding they are good at faltered, while newcomer Watson hasn’t fit in either. If the Cavaliers can’t find a way for it all to coexist, the view of them I set out in the Central Division preview will probably have to be marked down this season. So the above verification is for reference only; please bet responsibly.