The day before, I picked Pistons vs Knicks and Trail Blazers vs Lakers (the prediction and verification are both live), and today I’m picking just one game that has more to look at: Thunder vs Mavericks. The Thunder are the 4-0 second seed in the West and joint favourites for the title, but they face a serious injury crisis for this game: besides Jalen Williams (broken ankle, needs surgery, and I think everyone has seen that horrible footage), Holmgren, Wallace and Caruso are out too, and Mitchell and others aren’t confirmed to play. The Mavericks (the Southwest Division preview projected them third) are 2-2, and their current problem is that they win when Flagg and Irving are both in and lose when neither is, so how the bench bridges the minutes when the two are out is a big issue. So with the Thunder missing this many players, the line is still Thunder -6, and I’ll again analyse this game through recent form, injuries, rest days, home/away, market attitude, roster depth and specific tactical flaws.

Thunder @ Mavericks: Missing Six Players, Is Oklahoma City’s Depth Enough?

Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/29 (Thu) 09:30 / US Eastern 10/28 (Wed) 21:30, American Airlines Center. Line (captured 10/28, Pinnacle): Thunder -6 / moneyline Thunder 1.46, Mavericks 2.88 / total 229.5 (over 1.96 / under 1.91; Thunder about 66% after removing the margin).

Recent form: the Thunder are 4-0 with an average winning margin of 10.5 points, but what they did before can only be a reference, because from this game they are without Jalen Williams, their number two, and their two defensive cornerstones Holmgren and Caruso may also be out. The Mavericks are in somewhat better shape, but Irving may rest, and Lively isn’t back yet either.

Injuries: the Thunder are without Williams, Holmgren, Wallace and Caruso, with Mitchell in doubt; tonight’s roster is thinner than the one that played the Suns on 10/26, because Caruso is now out and Mitchell is uncertain (Mitchell was the leading scorer in that game, with 30). For the Mavericks, Irving and Marshall are in doubt, and Lively and De Larrea are out.

Rest: the Thunder finished on 10/26 and so did the Mavericks (on the road in Miami), so both have one day of rest with no back-to-back difference. The Mavericks have just flown back from Miami and the Thunder travel from Oklahoma to Dallas, both short trips.

Home/away form: the Thunder are 3-0 at home and 1-0 on the road (beating the Spurs away); the Mavericks are 0-1 at home and 2-1 on the road. Whether home court can offset the gap in quality remains to be seen.

Market attitude: Thunder -6, with the moneyline at 66% after removing the margin; the line hasn’t shrunk because the Thunder are missing six players, which means the market thinks the Thunder, even without Williams and Holmgren, are still clearly stronger than the Mavericks. The total of 229.5 is higher than either team’s average: 212 in the Thunder’s games and 228.5 in the Mavericks’.

Roster depth: depth is the theme of this game for the Thunder and the main thing to watch from here. They proved on 10/26 that they can beat the Suns, but this time Caruso is missing and the opponent is a Mavericks side that looks more of a playoff contender this season than the Suns, so whether they can keep up that strong showing will be a key to how their title odds move (see the Western Conference prediction guide). The Mavericks’ depth is a different kind of problem: Lively and De Larrea are out, Gafford is the centre, and Sasser, Clayton and Risacher are the reserves; the Thunder’s pressure (9.5 steals per game) against the Mavericks’ 17 turnovers per game is the key to how this game goes.

Specific tactical flaws: with Williams gone, who carries the second ball-handler role is something to keep watching. Mitchell looks good so far and last season’s numbers back it up, but this season everyone has studied him more closely, so can he keep it up? The Mavericks’ flaw is defence: their defensive rating of 117.9 is only 21st in the league, and that will be an important problem if they want to take a step up this season.

Matchups and key players: SGA against the Mavericks’ backcourt (SGA has taken 27, 19, 26 and 18 shots in these 4 games and averaged 27.3 points); and whether Flagg and Irving play together (2-1 when both play, and a 16-point loss when both were out).

Conclusion: I’m going to hedge a little on this one and predict two outcomes, but on different premises: if Irving rests, the Thunder win; if Irving plays, the Mavericks win. The reason is fairly simple: with the Mavericks’ current defensive rating, they’re unlikely to be able to hold SGA and the Thunder as a whole, so the only way to win is a shootout; but judging by their offence right now, only their efficiency with Irving and Flagg on the floor together is any good, and with one of them missing they probably can’t break through a short-handed Thunder, so a large part of this game depends on whether Irving plays.

Limits of the Method This Round: Until the Injury Report Is Out, This Game Isn’t Settled

Mitchell, Irving and Marshall are all questionable, and sources disagree on Holmgren’s status, so we won’t know who plays until an hour before tip-off; the judgement in this piece can only be taken as “based on the current roster”. As the prediction above honestly admits, the situations with Irving and without Irving have to be discussed separately, and if the official injury report differs from what’s written here, go by the report. So the above predictions are for reference only; please bet responsibly.