I took a few days off, a small break. Since so many teams have looked different from what was expected so far this season, I decided to spend more time watching games before writing more predictions. I picked the two games I’m most interested in and that should also be the most exciting: the first is Pistons at Knicks, where last season’s East leader the Pistons are 3-0 and face the defending champions in what should have been a collision of titans, though with the Knicks now 0-3 it has become a bit more open; the second is Trail Blazers at Lakers, with the Lakers 3-0 and the Blazers 2-0, and the best part is the star backcourt clash: Dončić and Reaves against a Blazers team with Lillard and Morant — in earlier years that would be three All-Stars and All-NBA players — and it’s also the clash between the league’s top two offences by efficiency. As with the previous article, every team has at least two regular-season games to go on (see the verification for how the last round went), and I’ll break them down by recent form, injuries, rest days, chemistry, specific tactical flaws and the market’s attitude.
Pistons @ Knicks: Can the 0-3 Defending Champions Stop the Slide at Madison Square Garden?
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/28 (Wed) 08:10 / US Eastern 10/27 20:10, Madison Square Garden. Line (captured 10/28 02:22, Pinnacle): Knicks -4 / moneyline Knicks 1.63, Pistons 2.42 / total 219.5 (Knicks about 60% after removing the margin).
Recent form: the Knicks (defending champions) are 0-3, and each loss has looked worse than the last: losing to a 76ers team with four stars (by 6) and to fellow title contender the Celtics (by 4) is understandable, but losing at home to a Magic team without Banchero (by 9) is hard to forgive. In that game they shot 9/38 (23.7%) from three, Brunson scored 28 but on just 12/28 shooting and 1/7 from three, and Bridges scored 6 with a plus-minus of -23; notably he is 0 for 10 from three this season, not one made, and his 10 points over 3 games are the main reason for the 0-3 start. The Pistons are 3-0, winning by 8, 17 and 13, and in the 76ers game they held the opponent to 40.0% shooting and 7/27 from three without Duren and Ausar Thompson, although Embiid was out and the man anchoring the frontcourt was a 40-plus-year-old LBJ, so the numbers deserve a discount.
Injuries: the Pistons are without Duren (about two weeks), Isaiah Joe probably won’t play after a hard fall in the last game, and Ausar Thompson is also in doubt (⚠️); the Knicks are missing only Alvarado. The Pistons’ frontcourt rotation is the biggest question mark: Reed started and played 23 minutes against the 76ers, but facing Towns (22 points and 14 rebounds against the Magic) and the Drummond–Wiseman combination, physicality and rebounding (the Knicks lost the boards 45-49 to the Magic) will be key.
Rest: both teams played on 10/25, one day of rest, the same.
Chemistry: the Knicks’ starters, Hart, Anunoby, Towns, Bridges and Brunson, haven’t changed in three games and the defending champion roster has barely changed, but their shooting and three-point percentages have been poor in all three (40% from three against the Celtics, 23.7% against the Magic), so the problem looks more like shooting form and Bridges’ slump than a problem with the team’s system. The Pistons have Cunningham as the main ball handler, with Jenkins and Robinson from the perimeter as second and third options, and Collins’ ball-handling is a concern raised in the Central Division preview, so whether the Knicks target it is worth watching.
Specific tactical flaws: the Pistons’ rim protection and rebounding without Duren (the 76ers game, without Embiid, can’t be used as a reference); the Knicks’ problem is turnovers and three-point shooting, with Brunson and the Bridges I mentioned both cold so far this season.
The market’s attitude: judging purely by recent form, this game would be an easy call for the Pistons. But with Duren and Isaiah Joe out, things may change. First, the Pistons are in excellent shape overall: their offensive rating of 118.3 and defensive rating of 105.6 are both 6th in the league, a team that does both. But without their second-leading scorer and key rim protector Duren, facing Towns, who has both range and power, won’t be easy, and Isaiah Joe’s absence may hurt their bench scoring. On the Knicks’ side, even though their start has been dreadful, can you believe the defending champions’ offensive rating of 102.2 is last in the league? And that’s not even the worst of it: that number is propped up by the bench, and their starting five of Brunson / Bridges / Anunoby / Hart / Towns has an offensive rating of just 94.2, the worst five-man unit in the league. The good news is that the Knicks’ defence has held up, with a defensive rating of 108.6, 9th in the league. In other words, their poor record has really been dragged down by awful perimeter shooting, while the defensive base and the system haven’t collapsed, and once the shooting returns they’ll win. Against a Pistons side missing Duren and Isaiah Joe, with Ausar Thompson also in doubt, Detroit’s perimeter defensive resources are relatively thin: the remaining starters Cade and Duncan Robinson are not known for defence, and the frontcourt is likely to have real trouble with Towns; if they switch to limit Towns, the rotations will probably not keep up. So as long as Bridges doesn’t post another absurd 0-for-6 or 0-for-7, I think the Knicks have a good chance to stop the losing here, though on the total, I’m honestly a bit afraid of their offence lately, so I’ll probably still lean toward the under.
Conclusion: I like the Knicks to win, with the fallback under 219.5.
Trail Blazers @ Lakers: A Clash of the League’s Top Two Offences, and It Comes Down to Dončić
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/28 (Wed) 11:10 / US Eastern 10/27 23:10, at the Lakers’ home arena. Line (captured 10/28 02:22, Pinnacle): Lakers -2 / moneyline Lakers 1.83, Trail Blazers 2.10 / total 234 (Lakers about 53% after removing the margin). Note the Lakers were still -3 the day before (moneyline 1.69) and are now -2 (1.83).
Recent form: the Lakers are 3-0, winning by 22, 8 and 9, and in the third game Dončić scored 52 against the Jazz (17/30, 8/18 from three), with Reaves adding 29 and 32/38 from the line; but the Jazz still scored 123, and the Lakers’ defence remains a problem, with a defensive rating of 113.7, only 19th in the league. The Blazers are 2-0, beating the Suns 124-83 at home and the Kings 128-120 on the road, and worth mentioning is their offensive rating of 125.9, second in the league (and yes, first is the Lakers across from them), a defensive rating of 101.4, third, and a net rating of +24.5, first. But honestly, neither team has played playoff-calibre opponents, so the numbers carry some water, and with a small sample they are only a reference.
Injuries: the Blazers are without Shaedon Sharpe (meniscus surgery, about six months), and Scoot Henderson (left ankle) and Branden Carlson (concussion protocol) are both questionable (⚠️); the Lakers are without Thiero and Carr, and Kessler can play with a splint on his finger.
Rest: the Lakers just played on 10/25 (Dončić played 38 minutes) with only one day of rest; the Blazers haven’t played since 10/23, with three days of rest. Rest favours the Blazers, though neither is on a back-to-back.
Chemistry: although the Blazers’ backcourt of Lillard, Morant and Holiday would have stood on their own in previous years, Holiday is ageing now, and Lillard and Morant are no longer the golden boys they once were after coming back from injury (see the Northwest Division preview). Portland’s main production is actually Avdija, and the strong frontcourt this versatile forward forms with Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams is the Blazers’ biggest competitive asset right now; the Lakers are a lineup built around Dončić, with Dončić and Reaves as the two cores, Kessler protecting the rim, and Thybulle and Zach Williams helping on defence (see the Pacific Division preview).
Specific tactical flaws: the Lakers need little explanation: playing Dončić and Reaves together means perimeter defence will have problems, and the league-19th defensive rating proves it; for the Blazers, the two games so far show no obvious weakness (they are top three in both offensive and defensive rating), and the only concern may be backcourt defence: Lillard and Morant play a lot of minutes and neither is known for defence, and while Holiday is a renowned defender he is ageing and his height disadvantage makes it hard for him to gain an edge against a guard like Dončić who relies on size and skill.
The market’s attitude: Lakers -2 (53% after removing the margin), and in one day the market moved from Lakers -3 to -2, with the moneyline narrowing from 1.69 / 2.28 to 1.83 / 2.10, a clear shift from “Lakers favourites” to “close to a coin flip”. I think that’s because the Blazers are in genuinely good shape and the Lakers have less rest, so Dončić’s stamina could be an issue; total 234, with the Lakers’ three totals at 232, 242 and 255 and the Blazers’ two at 207 and 248, so three of the five went over 234 and two did not.
Conclusion: since both backcourts will likely be unable to stop each other, this should be a shootout, so the over is the first choice on the total. Who wins is truly hard to say: the Blazers are the more complete team, strong inside and out, with a clear matchup edge at the frontcourt and small forward positions. But on stars, Lillard and Morant don’t look to be at their peak, while if Dončić erupts as he did against the Jazz, nobody in the league can stop him. So this game basically comes down to Dončić: if the Blazers find a way to limit him, or he is simply off, it’s probably a Blazers win; if he keeps up the level from the Jazz game, the Lakers take it. Putting it all together, I like the Blazers to win with the fallback over 234, because of Dončić’s stamina: he played 38 minutes in the previous game and has to come back after one day of rest, and given his track record I think the chance of the Lakers getting two straight eruptions from him is low, though I have to admit my confidence is not high.
Basketball really is a sport where one player’s big night can win a game, and Dončić is the representative case right now: when he’s on, nobody can match him offensively and he can topple any team. That’s also what makes this kind of prediction hard: I can lay out roster completeness, efficiency ratings and rest days side by side, but Dončić’s touch and stamina on a given night can’t be quantified beforehand; he just scored 52 against the Jazz and could be back to the 11-turnover version from the Clippers game next. On top of that, the numbers used here, the Knicks’ 0-3 and the Pistons’ 3-0, are small samples of three games, which isn’t enough to say that the defending champions are really in trouble or that the Pistons’ defence is really good, so my conclusions carry some guesswork. These predictions are for reference only; please check injuries and lineups against the official announcements, and bet responsibly.