NBA opening week moves into its fourth day, with twelve games on the card for 10/24. There are far too many NBA games to predict every one, so I’m picking the three I find most interesting: first, two old rivals who both lost their openers, the Knicks and Celtics, where beyond the clash of heavyweights the big storyline is Mitchell Robinson facing his old team; second, the Pistons against the Heat, one side the team that came back with a 23-0 fourth quarter against the Celtics on opening night and the other the team that was beaten by 25 by the Timberwolves, with the spread shifting 3.5 points in a single day; third, the Texas derby of the Rockets against the Spurs, with the Rockets firing on all cylinders in their opener and the Spurs dragged down by Wembanyama’s 1-for-13. Unlike the last piece, where neither team had any data, every team here has one real game to go on, and I’ll break the games down along recent form, injuries, chemistry, market attitude and rest days. For the last piece’s predictions and verification, see Heat–Timberwolves and Warriors–Lakers prediction guide and its verification; for how these teams sit over the whole season, read alongside the Eastern Conference prediction guide and Western Conference prediction guide.
Knicks @ Celtics: Both Lost Their Openers, and Mitchell Robinson Faces His Old Team
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/24 (Sat) 07:10 / US Eastern 10/23 19:10, TD Garden. Lines (fetched 10/23 19:10, Pinnacle): Celtics -3 / moneyline Celtics 1.72, Knicks 2.23 / total 223 (de-vigged, Celtics about 56%).
Recent form: Both teams lost their openers: the Knicks 100-106 to the 76ers (shooting only 37.2%, with Brunson 6/19, Anunoby 3/12 and Bridges 2/8), and the Celtics 113-121 to the Pistons after leading by 22 and being overturned, with Tatum in poor early-season form at just 6 for 23. But the biggest worry may be that the defence the Celtics have leaned on proudly for the last few seasons collapsed in the fourth quarter. (For where the two teams sit this season, see the Atlantic Division preview.)
Chemistry: Paul George’s 38 points last time (7 of 12 from three) proved he still has it, and while Tatum’s touch is worrying (6 for 23, 0 for 7 from three), he has often had spells like that before. Overall the team’s offensive division of labour looks fine, and the biggest problem may actually be defence.
Injuries: The Celtics only have Devin Carter (mononucleosis) out, and Mitchell Robinson seemed to tweak an ankle in the opener but wasn’t on the injury report; the Knicks’ report is clean, with only two-way players listed as questionable.
Rest days: Both teams played on 10/20 and play again on 10/23, so rest is equal.
Depth: The Knicks used Drummond for 24 minutes at centre, with an obvious rebounding edge; the Celtics’ bench had Pritchard with 17 points and Hauser with 11, so the offence is fine, but the bench defence is where the fourth-quarter collapse came from.
Market attitude: Celtics -3 (it was -2 yesterday), de-vigged 56%, so you can almost say the market is simply backing the home side; a total of 223 is one of the lowest lines of the day (the Knicks’ opener had only 206 points, the Celtics’ 234), and the gap between the two openers is wide, but given that both teams had cold shooters in the openers, the line is understandable.
Verdict: The hardest thing about this game may be Tatum’s touch: if he is still as cold as last time, the Celtics will run into a lack of isolation scoring, and you can’t expect an ageing George to carry a whole game’s offence. Against Towns, who has excellent range, the Celtics are very likely to switch everyone, and George is expected to take on more defensive duties. Tatum has always had unstable shooting percentages and it’s hard to say that because he was poor last time he will be poor again, but this time he faces Anunoby and Bridges, two defenders of a higher grade than in the Pistons game. So although the Celtics are at home, I think the Knicks, with more scoring options, will win, and I expect both teams’ touch to recover from the openers, so my fallback is the over (over 223 points).
Pistons @ Heat: The Line Flipped in a Day, and I Like the Heat
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/24 (Sat) 08:10 / US Eastern 10/23 20:10, Kaseya Center. Lines (fetched 10/23 19:10, Pinnacle): Pistons -1 / moneyline Pistons 1.89, Heat 2.00 / total 235.5 (de-vigged 51% / 49%). Note that yesterday the spread was still Heat -2.5 and has flipped to Pistons -1, and the total has dropped from 238 to 235.5.
Recent form: The Pistons beat the Celtics 121-113 in their opener (Jalen Green 19 off the bench, Duncan Robinson 5 of 9 from three, Cunningham 22 points and 8 assists), and the Heat lost 106-131 to the Timberwolves (8 of 33 from three, Giannis with 5 fouls, Klay playing only 16 minutes, Davion Mitchell with 11 assists and 5 turnovers). The Pistons won a game where they trailed by 22 through three quarters and then went 23-0 in the fourth, while the Heat lost a one-sided game. (The Central Division preview and Southeast Division preview show where the two teams sit this season.)
Rest days: The Pistons finished on 10/20 and have two days’ rest; the Heat only lost on 10/21 and have just one day, which is a disadvantage for Miami, but neither is on a back-to-back so the effect is small.
Injuries: The Pistons only have Taurean Prince (personal reasons, listed as probable); the Heat’s report is clean; Dru Smith didn’t play last time (DNP).
Chemistry: The Heat’s three stars (Giannis, Bam, Klay) played together for the first time, and last time Bam and Klay’s +/- were -28 and -23; Giannis’ foul trouble (5 fouls) is the biggest variable here, and if he goes off early again, Miami’s offence can only rely on Mitchell and the perimeter.
Specific tactical flaw: The Heat’s 8 of 33 from three came from Hardaway Jr. 1 of 7, Jović 0 of 3, Bam 1 of 5 and Wiggins 1 of 4, and whether they can make use of the perimeter space Giannis creates will be the most important question for the Heat this season; the Pistons’ problem, one talked about from before the season until now, is the lack of a second ball-handler, and if Cunningham is trapped, whether anyone else can handle the ball is the biggest question.
Market attitude: The line is an exact coin flip and flipped from Heat -2.5 to Pistons -1 in a day, so the market clearly sees “the Heat losing by 25” and “the Pistons’ 22-point comeback” as warning signs worth noting; the total is 235.5, and the two openers’ totals were 237 and 234, so it’s now close to the line.
Verdict: The two sides’ openers were a Heat loss and a Pistons win, and the Pistons’ win was an astonishing 22-point comeback. But I actually think that being 22 points down says something in itself. On the Heat’s side, their defensive scheme last time was to drop and play the under, which let Edwards and LaMelo, who can shoot off the dribble and from extreme range, go wild. Cunningham can also shoot off the dribble, but he is a point guard who stresses team passing and sensible shot selection, and he is unlikely to keep firing from the outside like the two flashy guards in Minnesota. This time he meets a perimeter defence of Mitchell and Wiggins, while his frontcourt partner Duren has to deal with Giannis and Bam in rotation, so neither will have an easy night. As long as one or two Heat players recover their touch, I think the Heat actually have the edge here. For the fallback, the Heat’s touch was ice cold last time and the under still missed by only two, so I have no reason not to take the over in a game where I expect their touch to recover (over 235.5 points).
Rockets @ Spurs: A Three-Guard Line-up Meets a Rocket Side Where Everyone but VanVleet Is Over Six Foot Seven
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/24 (Sat) 09:40 / US Eastern 10/23 21:40, the Spurs’ home game (reportedly at the Moody Center in Austin). Lines (fetched 10/23 19:10, Pinnacle): Spurs -5.5 / moneyline Spurs 1.51, Rockets 2.71 / total 229 (de-vigged, Spurs 64%).
Recent form: The Rockets beat the Mavericks 128-110 on the road in their opener; the Spurs lost 104-116 at home to the Thunder (Wembanyama 1 of 13, team shooting 38.7%), although Wembanyama had 6 blocks and 13 rebounds on defence, and whether his offensive touch returns is the key. (The Southwest Division preview shows where the two sit this season.)
Rest days: The Rockets only finished on 10/21, with one day’s rest and a flight from Dallas to San Antonio; the Spurs finished on 10/20 and have two days’ rest. Rest favours the Spurs, but neither is on a back-to-back, so the effect is limited.
Injuries: For the Spurs, Tobias Harris is out (left calf strain), Quaintance is out (knee surgery), De’Aaron Fox is questionable with a right wrist sprain and won’t be settled until an hour before the game, and Keldon Johnson is questionable with a mouth laceration; for the Rockets, Steven Adams is questionable with calf tightness and Reed Sheppard with a left knee contusion; as far as I’ve heard, no other key players have injury concerns.
Chemistry: The Rockets look fine, and with VanVleet back he seems in decent shape, scoring only 6 points on 2 for 8 but dishing 11 assists; the Spurs are expected to keep trying their three-guard small line-up (Castle, Vassell, Wembanyama, Harper, Fox), but according to post-game news, Wembanyama said he needs to get back to playing the way he likes, and whether that hints at dissatisfaction with this starting five remains to be seen.
Depth: The Rockets may be without Sheppard, but from the first game Bogdanović and Smart can still just about hold the rotation together; for the Spurs, more than bench depth, Wembanyama’s touch is the point.
Market attitude: Spurs -5.5 (it was -7 yesterday), de-vigged 64%, and the market still generally favours the Spurs, last season’s Western Conference champions. But the Rockets’ firepower in their opener has narrowed the line; the total is 229, and the two openers’ totals were 238 (Rockets) and 220 (Spurs), a big gap.
Verdict: Honestly, I think Wembanyama’s 1-for-13 was a one-off. With his ability and frame, you can’t expect to beat the Spurs by having him miss every day. But I genuinely don’t like the three-guard, or even four-guard, line-up, especially against a Rockets side where everyone except VanVleet is over six foot seven. For one thing, who do you put on Durant’s jump shot? Even if Wembanyama is a DPOY with historic defensive coverage, you can’t really expect him to guard four players at once. And it isn’t only defence: judging by the first game, this line-up’s offensive ceiling is no more threatening than last season’s, and although there’s an extra ball-handler, the threat from outside has fallen rather than risen. So, taking everything together, I think that if the Spurs insist on using this line-up, the Rockets will be the side with the edge. On the total, I personally like the Rockets’ firepower and Wembanyama’s touch recovering, so I’ll go over (over 229 points).
All Three Games Rest on “Touch Will Recover”, and That Assumption Has No Guarantee
All three of my fallbacks are the over, and all three rest on the assumption that the stars’ touch will recover: Tatum’s 6 for 23, Wembanyama’s 1 for 13 and the Heat’s 8 for 33 from three are each a one-game small sample, and there’s no way to confirm the stars’ true state, but I expect all of them to recover. On top of that, NBA questionable tags aren’t settled until an hour before the game, and Fox’s wrist, for example, can change the whole judgement; and the Heat–Pistons spread flipping from Heat -2.5 to Pistons -1 in a single day shows the market can change its mind overnight, so my judgement likewise depends on last-minute updates. These predictions are for reference only: please check the official injury reports and starting line-ups, and please bet responsibly.