Premier League matchweek 9: Manchester City’s unbeaten run has been ended by Villa, and Manchester United, after losing 0-3 to Bournemouth, are now winless in eight across all competitions. The prediction and verification for the previous round are both live. This round has two head-to-heads between big clubs: United face a Chelsea side that has just lost to Spurs, and fourth-placed Liverpool host Arsenal, who are level on points at the top of the table. Together with the midweek Champions League matchday 3 and the EFL Cup fourth round, fixture congestion is the shared backdrop. I’ll again use recent form, injuries, fixture congestion, home/away splits, head-to-head and market attitude to analyse and call these games.

Chelsea vs Man United: Both Sides Have Flaws, but Chelsea Are the Ones Playing an Extra Midweek Game

Kick-off: 10/31 (Sat) 20:30 Taiwan time / 12:30 local, Stamford Bridge. Odds (fetched 10/28, average of 43 bookmakers): Chelsea 1.79 / draw 3.94 / United 4.08 (de-vigged 53% / 24% / 23%); over 2.5 goals 1.54 / under 2.5 goals 2.42 (only 9 quotes, for reference only).

Recent form: Chelsea are 4W 1D 3L (13 points, 5th), and lost 0-2 at home to Spurs last time out (only 7 shots, Palmer sent off); United are winless in eight across all competitions, sit 16th after the 0-3 loss to Bournemouth, and are just 1 point off the relegation zone.

Injuries and squad: Chelsea are without Reece James (minor knee surgery) and João Pedro (thigh, out for weeks), Emiliano Martínez (after jaw surgery) is doubtful, and Mike Penders has started the last two; Palmer is back from suspension. For United, Mainoo, Rashford and Shaw are all doubts, and Bruno Fernandes was moved to the bench last time, so whether he starts here is one to watch.

Fixture congestion (EFL Cup): Chelsea travel to Liverpool for the EFL Cup fourth round on Wednesday (10/28, Anfield) before hosting United on Saturday, with no European football; United were knocked out of the EFL Cup (lost 2-3 to Brighton in round three) and have the whole week to prepare, though after this game they host Roma in the Champions League on Tuesday (11/3) with only three days’ rest. This midweek difference is the easiest variable to overlook in this game: Chelsea lack a full rest, while United have plenty.

Home/away form: Chelsea at home are 2W 1D 1L (11 scored, 8 conceded); United away are 0W 3D 1L (4 scored, 6 conceded), still without an away win this season.

Market attitude: The market makes Chelsea 53% favourites with the draw at 24%; United’s 23% is one of the lowest away-win probabilities this round.

Verdict: Neither side’s form is much to look at. Chelsea’s problem is injuries: first Reece James, and now João Pedro up front too, leaving Morgan Rogers to carry the line; the good news is Palmer should be back from suspension, and if they can fix their build-up from the back they should still pose enough of a threat going forward. United, as everyone knows, are caught in a dressing-room storm and look completely lost on the pitch; Fernandes, moved to the bench, hasn’t solved the attacking problem and has drained the whole team’s creativity, defending has been a recurring issue, and I doubt that gets better before a change of manager. So in a game where both sides are flawed, I’m still picking Chelsea to win, but given both sides’ form, my fallback is the under.

Man City vs Brighton: Brighton’s High-Tempo Football Meets a City Midfield That Doesn’t Fear It

Kick-off: 10/31 (Sat) 23:00 Taiwan time / 15:00 local, Etihad. Odds (fetched 10/28, average of 43 bookmakers): City 1.63 / draw 4.37 / Brighton 4.63 (de-vigged 58% / 22% / 20%); main goals line 3.5 (over 2.13 / under 1.70, 16 quotes).

Recent form: After their first loss to Villa, City meet Brighton first in the EFL Cup on 10/28; Brighton have scored 23 and conceded 7 in 8 games, the league’s best attack, lost 0-2 to Liverpool last time out, and before that beat Palace 5-0. Brighton’s home record is 3W 1D (13 scored, 1 conceded) and away is 2W 2L (10 scored, 6 conceded), and this one is away.

Injuries and squad: City are without Semenyo but their other key players are back; for Brighton, Kadıoğlu and Chema Andrés picked up hip injuries against Liverpool and their status is unclear, Mitoma is out, and sources differ on Wieffer.

Fixture congestion: City face Brighton twice in a row (cup then league), plus a Champions League trip to Leipzig on 11/4, so Maresca’s rotation is the key.

Home/away form: City are 4 from 4 at home (11 scored, 6 conceded) and 3W 1L away (including the Villa defeat).

Tactical style: Brighton have produced very good attacking intensity this season with a high-tempo, pressing style, and have beaten Arsenal, currently level on points at the top, 3-0; with City also conceding often at the back lately, this won’t be an easy game for them.

Market attitude: The 3.5 main goals line is the highest of the round, so the market expects an open game; City’s 58% win probability is the second highest of the four games.

Verdict: Although City lost to Villa last round, I expect them to rotate in the EFL Cup and then face Brighton in the league with their full strength. Compared with Arsenal and others, I think City are relatively less afraid of Brighton’s high-tempo style: City’s midfield is physically strong, harder and more aggressive in pressing and running, and better on the ball and in attack, so Brighton’s pace is more likely to expose the space behind them. So I think this one will be a City win, but given how often City have been conceding, my fallback is both teams to score, and even over 3.5 isn’t a stretch for these two.

Spurs vs Crystal Palace: An Away Palace That Can’t Create, Against a Spurs Side That Has Steadied

Kick-off: 11/1 (Sun) 01:30 Taiwan time / 10/31 17:30 local, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Odds (fetched 10/28, average of 43 bookmakers): Spurs 1.53 / draw 4.45 / Palace 5.53 (de-vigged 62% / 21% / 17%); over 2.5 goals 1.57 / under 2.5 goals 2.37 (16 quotes).

Recent form: Spurs have won their last two league games (3-1 Coventry, 2-0 Chelsea) and climbed to 14th (9 points); Palace have 7 points and have lost 0-5 to Brighton and 0-2 to Newcastle in their last two, their 19 goals conceded are the most in the league, and away from home they have scored only 3 goals in 4 games, failing to score in 3 of them — they barely create anything on the road.

Injuries and squad: For Spurs, Simons, Odobert, Mudryk and Bergvall are out, Bentancur is suspended, and Udogie, Adarabioyo and Maddison are doubts; I couldn’t find a reliable injury list for Palace.

Home/away form: Spurs at home are 1W 1D 2L (5 scored, 6 conceded), not good; Palace away are 1W 1D 2L (3 scored, 9 conceded).

Market attitude: Spurs’ 62% makes them the most-favoured home side of the four games; the over-2.5 price is only 1.57, so the market expects goals.

Verdict: Spurs have steadied, their attack has improved, and last time out they shut out Chelsea, whose firepower is among the league’s best this season (even with Chelsea’s injury concerns). So against a Palace side playing very badly on the road, I think Spurs winning is not a problem. For the fallback, Palace barely score away from home, and while Spurs have steadied, their attack is still not top-tier, so I’ll go with the under.

Liverpool vs Arsenal: A Real Heavyweight Game, and I’m Going Against the Market with Liverpool

Kick-off: 11/2 (Mon) 00:30 Taiwan time / 11/1 (Sun) 16:30 local, Anfield. Odds (fetched 10/28, average of 43 bookmakers): Liverpool 2.98 / draw 3.46 / Arsenal 2.30 (de-vigged 32% / 27% / 41%); over 2.5 goals 1.84 / under 2.5 goals 1.95 (20 quotes). Away side Arsenal are favourites.

Recent form: Arsenal have 21 points (level with City at the top) and won 2-0 against Everton last time out (Konsa and Gabriel each scored), having lost only to Brighton in their last five; Liverpool have 15 points (4th) and won 2-0 against Brighton last time out (Barcola assisting Isak), unbeaten in four across all competitions since losing 0-3 to City, so their form is not to be underestimated either.

Injuries and squad: For Arsenal, Saka and Saliba are out and Calafiori is a doubt; for Liverpool, Szoboszlai, Ekitike, Frimpong and Bradley are out, and Wirtz and Gakpo are doubts. Both sides are missing key players, which is the biggest variable in this game.

Fixture congestion (EFL Cup): Liverpool host Chelsea in the EFL Cup fourth round on Wednesday (10/28) and Arsenal travel to Fleetwood Town midweek; after this game both have Champions League away trips on Wednesday (Liverpool to Fenerbahçe in Turkey, Arsenal to Slavia Praha in the Czech Republic) with only three days’ rest. From last Sunday’s game against Brighton to the Champions League on 11/4, Liverpool play four games in 11 days (Brighton → EFL Cup Chelsea → Arsenal → Champions League Fenerbahçe), so rotation and fatigue are the biggest things to watch.

Home/away form: Liverpool at home are only 1W 2D 1L, with just 4 goals in 4 games (5 conceded); away they are 3W 1D (7 scored, 3 conceded); Arsenal are 4 from 4 at home and 3W 1L away (4 scored, 3 conceded). Anfield has not been a strength for Liverpool this season, and that is reflected in the odds, with Liverpool at only 32%.

Market attitude: The market puts the away side Arsenal at 41% (Liverpool at home are just 32%), with the de-vigged draw at 27%, the highest draw probability of the four games.

Verdict: This is a real heavyweight game, fourth against second. Liverpool’s recovery in form is clear; since joining Iraola’s system, Barcola has shown a very good fit, and although he hasn’t opened his Premier League account yet, he has set up several goals and has good chemistry with Isak; his ability to dribble past defenders down the flank always tears the opposition’s line open, and with his active defending and pressing he is an excellent counter-press trigger in the system. As for Arsenal, even without Saka and Saliba they held Bayern and then won 2-0 against Everton, so their attack seems not to have been affected much, and together with their already excellent defence they have drawn level with City at the top. But I think their attacking problems are only temporarily masked rather than solved, and the weakness up front is still there. So in this one I’m going to be a little bold and go against the market: Liverpool will win on the strength of their attack. As for a fallback, the odds on both goals lines are poor, so I won’t give it much thought; if I had to pick one, I’d take over 2.5.

Limits of the Method This Round: The Line-Ups Aren’t Settled, and the EFL Cup Will Rewrite Them Again

There are two games I’m least sure about this round. The first is Liverpool against Arsenal: both sides have players whose availability is in doubt (Wirtz, Gakpo, Calafiori), so the line-ups can’t be fully confirmed, and with the EFL Cup this week and a congested schedule, whether new injuries or rotation appear is also hard to pin down; my choice of Liverpool rests on the current squads. The second is Chelsea against United: when Chelsea lost to Spurs the whole team was clearly affected by injuries, with only 7 shots in the game and Palmer sent off, but how long that lasts, and whether they can maintain it on Saturday after the EFL Cup tie at Anfield on Wednesday, is hard to judge from pre-match data; my prediction rests on Palmer coming back and Morgan Rogers being able to carry the front line. None of this will be known until the official team news and the EFL Cup results are out, and whether United’s dressing-room storm is affecting players’ commitment on the pitch isn’t something any model can quantify. So the above predictions are for reference only; please go by the official pre-match announcements for injuries and starting line-ups, and please bet responsibly.