Last round’s predictions and verification are both up, and now it’s Premier League matchweek 7, with each of the six big clubs playing once. None of the games is a big-club clash, but each has its own storyline: City were beaten 4-2 by PSG in midweek and play four games in ten days, so fatigue is a real test; two of Liverpool’s key forwards are injury doubts and it’s unclear whether they will be back; United are winless in four league games and lost to Atlético in Europe, and that slump leaves Carrick’s position shakier by the week; Spurs have gone six games without a win and scored only three goals, yet are 1.47 favourites. I’ll break the six games down through form, injuries, schedule density, morale and what the odds say.
Everton vs Chelsea: How Much of Chelsea’s 5-1 Was Finishing, and Can Everton’s Left Side Hold Up?
Kick-off: 10/17 (Sat) 19:30 Taiwan time / 12:30 UK local. Odds (fetched 10/16, average of 43 bookmakers): Everton 3.17 / draw 3.67 / Chelsea 2.14; over 2.5 goals 1.65 / under 2.5 goals 2.20.
Form: Everton are unbeaten in their last five games in all competitions (two wins and four draws in the league), drew 2-2 at Hull last time out, and on goal difference currently sit fifth in the league; Chelsea beat Bournemouth 5-1 last round, but the game’s xG was only about 1.1 (against 1.4–1.5 for the opposition), so the performance wasn’t as dominant as the scoreline suggests. Chelsea’s problem this season is the back line: 13 goals conceded in six games, three each against Brentford and Brighton, plus the earlier row between the defence and goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, which has only made things worse.
Injuries: Chelsea’s Reece James has had minor knee surgery and is definitely out (confirmed by the club, with no return date announced; some media estimate 10/24 against Spurs at the earliest); Gittens is out for several weeks with an ankle injury, Emegha is back in training but at best a bench option, and Caicedo has recovered. For Everton, first-choice left-back Mykolenko was hurt on international duty and missed the 2-2 draw at Hull, so he remains a doubt; they have no second specialist left-back (Aznou is on loan at Málaga), so Branthwaite is expected to cover if he’s out, and Norgaard is gradually returning to training.
What the odds say: Average 3.17 / 3.67 / 2.14, which after removing the margin is Everton 30%, draw 26%, Chelsea 44% — the market sees the away side as slight favourites. Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 (about 57% after removing the margin) means the market leans slightly towards the over.
Specific tactical flaw: Chelsea’s defensive holes haven’t visibly improved since the start of the season; Everton have no cover at left-back, and if Mykolenko is out, Chelsea’s attacks down the right could do damage.
Verdict: Because of their poor back line, Chelsea’s games are mostly end-to-end and very hard to call. When the attack is firing they can score five or six in a game, but when it isn’t they can just as easily be held by a bottom-half side (like the 2-2 at Hull) or lose to a side like Brentford (0-3). Everton are a tough, physical side this season and have shown great resilience, grinding out draws against plenty of opponents. Given all that, I’m going with Everton not to lose (win or draw), with both teams scoring as the fallback.
Brentford vs Liverpool: Liverpool’s Front Line Is Uncertain and They’ve Just Played in Europe
Kick-off: 10/17 (Sat) 22:00 Taiwan time / 15:00 UK local. Odds (fetched 10/16, average of 43 bookmakers): Brentford 2.39 / draw 3.62 / Liverpool 2.78; over 2.5 goals 1.55 / under 2.5 goals 2.38.
Form: Brentford are unbeaten in six (two wins, four draws), have scored 12 goals, and are currently fourth in the Premier League; Liverpool have two wins, three draws and a defeat in the league, with only seven goals scored, and lost 0-3 to City last time out. They did beat LASK 6-3 in Europe (though they conceded three), but they are now hit by injuries with several key forwards missing, and while they scored six in Europe, LASK are a weak side so it isn’t a reliable guide.
Injuries: For Liverpool, Gravenberch is definitely suspended for one game after the red card against City; Iraola said at Thursday’s press conference that Szoboszlai, Isak and Gakpo have not yet trained with the group, that it is “too early” and he isn’t sure whether they will make Brentford, Villarreal or Brighton — all three also missed the LASK game; Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni are long-term absentees. For Brentford, Schade’s shoulder is a doubt (Ouattara can cover on the left), Schuster was taken off at half-time last time with an ankle knock (van den Berg is expected to replace him), Collins has just returned to training from a calf injury, and Jensen and Damsgaard are still to be confirmed.
Schedule: Liverpool only played in Austria on Wednesday and this is another away game, so stamina is a big test; Brentford have no European football.
What the odds say: Average 2.39 / 3.62 / 2.78, which after removing the margin is Brentford 40%, draw 26%, Liverpool 34% — the market leans slightly to the home side; over 2.5 goals at 1.55 (about 61% after removing the margin) means the market favours the over.
Verdict: The odds lean slightly to Brentford (about 40% against 34% after removing the margin), but the gap is small and it’s still a close game. If you only looked at the size of the two clubs you’d find that surprising, but on form it makes sense: Brentford are fourth, Liverpool are riddled with injuries, conceded three against LASK, and are playing away, so this price is actually reasonable. But I personally think Liverpool’s form isn’t as bad as people think: the 0-3 loss to City was really decided by a red card, and without it Liverpool played well; conceding three at LASK came from a very attack-minded game where they went ahead early against weaker opposition and relaxed, and under head coach Iraola the team has still shown real momentum, with Barcola scoring a hat-trick against LASK. So although I know Brentford have been very strong this season, and Liverpool are hit by injuries and have a record of struggling at the Gtech Community Stadium, I still want to trust Iraola’s coaching, and I’m backing Liverpool to win (narrowly), with both teams scoring as the fallback.
Manchester City vs Ipswich: The Second of Four Games in Ten Days, With Rotation the Only Variable
Kick-off: 10/17 (Sat) 22:00 Taiwan time / 15:00 UK local. Odds (fetched 10/16, average of 43 bookmakers): City 1.23 / draw 6.79 / Ipswich 10.57; over 2.5 goals 1.37 / under 2.5 goals 3.04 (only a few bookmakers quote the totals, so treat as indicative).
Form: City have won all six, sit on 18 points, and beat Liverpool 3-0 last time out; Ipswich are tenth on nine points and won 2-1 against Fulham last round.
Injuries: Previews all say City have no major injury concerns, Doku is still being managed after his calf problem in August, and sources differ on Foden’s status; Ipswich’s Fatawu is suspended.
Schedule: City play four games in ten days, but the bench is deep enough to cope with that.
Gap in class / what the odds say: Average 1.23, which after removing the margin makes City 77%; the gap in class is big enough that rotation shouldn’t narrow it much.
Verdict: City have been strong this season and seem completely unaffected by the financial charges; they lost to PSG in Europe, but PSG are a hard side to beat in the Champions League anyway. Haaland is in great form, and against a side so far below them in class I expect him to lift the whole attack. The market is almost one-sided on City and so am I — I have no doubt City will win — but the 1.23 price isn’t very tempting, and I’d probably look more at the fallback of over 2.5 goals.
Leeds vs Manchester United: Carrick’s Position, and a Wrecked Left Side
Kick-off: 10/18 (Sun) 21:00 Taiwan time / 14:00 UK local. Odds (fetched 10/16, average of 43 bookmakers): Leeds 2.34 / draw 3.58 / United 2.85; over 2.5 goals 1.64 / under 2.5 goals 2.24.
Morale and form: United are winless in four league games (the latest a 1-1 draw with Spurs), lost 2-0 at Atlético on Tuesday, and there has been constant talk of a managerial change. Leeds, currently seventh, lost to Arsenal last round and merely drew with Crystal Palace the round before; their form is a bit better than United’s, but it isn’t overwhelming.
Injuries: For United, Sesko’s shin injury has flared up again, he is still being assessed and there is no firm return date; Shaw and Mainoo were hurt against Spurs and missed the Atlético game, Carrick’s comments suggest the injuries aren’t serious and they could be back on Sunday, but there are still doubts; Mazraoui hurt himself on international duty and isn’t fully recovered, with Dalot covering at right-back; Dorgu is out for several weeks; Baleba is progressing; de Ligt is back. Ayden Heaven will quite possibly be asked to fill in at left-back again. For Leeds, Rodon is out with a hamstring injury, Mateo Joseph is out, Dan James is a doubt, and Harry Wilson has just returned from injury.
What the odds say: Average 2.34 / 3.58 / 2.85, which after removing the margin is Leeds 40%, draw 26%, United 33%, so the market now slightly favours Leeds (at the opening it was United who were favoured); over 2.5 goals at 1.64 and under 2.5 at 2.24 (about 58% on the over after removing the margin), so the market doesn’t much favour the under either.
Specific tactical flaw: It never rains but it pours for United: their form was already bad, and now there’s a dressing-room row (Lisandro Martínez publicly criticised the club’s summer spending before apologising), plus Dorgu’s absence has left a hole at left-back… but the biggest problem right now is the attack. Bruno Fernandes, last season’s Premier League assists leader, has been in poor form since that hat-trick; moved to the right against Atlético on Tuesday he did create two decent chances, but it’s a long way from his level last season. And Marcus Rashford, the other forward, had nothing memorable all game apart from a yellow card.
Verdict: The market actually slightly favours Leeds at home now (about 40% against 33% for United after removing the margin), and although United are a traditional big club, given their poor attacking form and the dressing-room row I simply have no confidence in them at the moment. So I’m backing Leeds to win at home, and because of the doubts about United’s firepower my fallback is under 2.5 goals.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Arsenal’s Next Stop Is Munich
Kick-off: 10/18 (Sun) 23:30 Taiwan time / 16:30 UK local. Odds (fetched 10/16, average of 43 bookmakers): Forest 5.76 / draw 3.86 / Arsenal 1.61; over 2.5 goals 1.91 / under 2.5 goals 1.88.
Form: Arsenal are second in the Premier League on 15 points and beat Lille 3-0 in Europe; their only defeat was 0-3 at Brighton. Forest have lost their last two (0-1 Coventry, 1-3 Palace) and have won only one of their last five.
Injuries: For Arsenal, Zubimendi has an ankle injury and missed the Lille game; Arteta expects him to be out only “a few days” and he could return on Sunday (it depends on how he copes with the pain); Hincapié’s injury is more serious and he is expected to be out for weeks (one report says December); Saliba has started individual training and is expected back in December; Tzolis is out. For Forest, Igor Jesus is out for several weeks with a calf injury, Milenkovic missed the 1-3 defeat at Palace with bone bruising and it’s not confirmed whether he returns for this one, and Savona is out.
Schedule: Three days after this game Arsenal travel to the Allianz Arena to play Bayern, so rotation is possible.
What the odds say: Average 5.76 / 3.86 / 1.61, which after removing the margin makes Arsenal 59%; over/under 2.5 goals at 1.91 / 1.88, so the market has no real lean on goals.
Verdict: After the 0-3 loss to Brighton, Arsenal beat Leeds and then Lille in Europe, so their form has recovered. Their attack isn’t quite top level at the moment and they aren’t as dominant as when they won the title last season, but Forest are also in poor form, so overall I still back Arsenal to win. And given Arsenal’s defensive standard, my fallback is under 2.5 goals.
Spurs vs Coventry: 1.47 Favourites, but a Team With Only Three Goals in Six Games
Kick-off: 10/20 (Tue) 03:00 Taiwan time (10/19 US Eastern) / 10/19 (Mon) 20:00 UK local. Odds (fetched 10/16, average of 42 bookmakers): Spurs 1.47 / draw 4.62 / Coventry 6.28; over 2.5 goals 1.57 / under 2.5 goals 2.36.
Form: Spurs are winless in six (0-3 Brentford, 0-2 Newcastle, 0-0 Forest, 0-0 Everton, 2-3 Villa, 1-1 United) and sit 19th; the one bit of good news is that they’ve finally ended their goal drought, scoring in two straight games, so the attack is recovering. Coventry are newly promoted and have won two in a row after four straight defeats (0-3 Arsenal, 0-1 Hull, 0-1 City, 0-5 Brighton, then 1-0 Forest and 4-1 Newcastle); they are on six points in 14th.
Injuries: For Spurs, Bentancur begins a three-match ban for his straight red card against United; Xavi Simons (knee), Odobert (knee) and Mudryk (ankle) are long-term absentees; Kulusevski has been training fully and could make the squad, and Porro’s hamstring injury might clear in time, though sources disagree on both; Maddison may start. For Coventry, Awoniyi has finished his suspension and is competing with Cherif to start, Haji Wright is out long-term, and Kesler-Hayden is available.
Morale and mindset: They’ve finally shaken off the goal drought, but Spurs are still winless, and the pressure on the players and coach remains heavy. Scoring doesn’t mean they’ve solved the problems with the coach’s tactics and player fit; the situation is only improving, and the results are still far below expectations. Coventry, on the other hand, are newly promoted and on a two-game winning run, so they carry the least psychological baggage; the only issue is that they’re away from home, and their momentum may be tested.
What the odds say: Average 1.47 / 4.62 / 6.28, which after removing the margin makes Spurs 64%; this is a good example of odds that reflect reputation rather than this season’s form. But it has to be said that this is the best chance Spurs have had to get their first win: they’ve solved the goal drought, they’re at home, and the opponents are newly promoted — everything lines up. If they can’t win this one… then they can’t win, and frankly I’ve given up expecting anything from this season’s Spurs.
Verdict: As the odds section said, everything lines up for Spurs here — timing (the goal drought solved), place (home) and people (promoted opponents) — and if they still don’t win, their fight against relegation becomes precarious. So even though this season’s Spurs are hard to trust, I still slightly favour them to win and pick up their first three points of the season, and with their shaky defence and attack as they are, my fallback is both teams scoring.
Entering Champions League Week, Fatigue and Injuries Make Predictions Harder
Entering Champions League week, many of the big clubs are starting to feel the effects of fatigue and injuries. Liverpool’s two key forwards, Isak and Gakpo, are both doubts because of injury, and Spurs and Chelsea are both still having chemistry problems this season, all of which makes predictions harder at this stage. And Viking forcing a draw with Bayern in Champions League week shows that one of the charms of football is its unpredictability, especially when a red card leaves a side a man short, when even strong teams can come unstuck. So, as always: please bet responsibly.