The results of the pre-match predictions for the three NBA opening-night games are in: 1 hit and 2 misses. The champion Knicks were beaten by the 76ers on ring night, and the Spurs lost by 12 to last season’s playoff victims, the Thunder. Only the Pistons game went my way, as Detroit came back from 22 points down with a 23-0 fourth-quarter run to beat the Celtics. Overall, the effect of early-season chemistry and roster changes was bigger than I thought.
| Game (away @ home) | Pre-match call | Pre-match line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics @ Pistons | Slight lean to the Pistons | Pistons -1, total 221.5 | Pistons 121-113 | ✅ Hit (total 234) |
| 76ers @ Knicks | Knicks to win | Knicks -5.5, total 230.5 | 76ers 106-100 | ❌ Miss (total 206) |
| Thunder @ Spurs | Spurs to win | Spurs -2.5, total 231 | Thunder 116-104 | ❌ Miss (total 220) |
The Hit: Pistons 121-113 Celtics
Pistons 121-113 Celtics. Before the game I called it a coin flip with a slight lean to the young Pistons with fresh legs early in the season, and Detroit did win, but in dramatic fashion: Boston led by as many as 22, and the Pistons only turned it around with a 23-0 run in the fourth quarter. Paul George was better than I expected and scored 38 points in his Celtics debut, a Celtics debut record, but fellow star forward Tatum was ice cold, going 6 for 23 (0 for 7 from three) for just 13 points. For Detroit, Cade Cunningham had 22 points and 8 assists, Jalen Duren 22 points and 9 rebounds and Duncan Robinson 21 points (5 of 9 from three), and the duo plus a shooter was what turned the game. That fits what I said before the game about the Pistons being able to ride youthful energy early in the season, though Boston’s defence was less formidable than usual, and whether that comes from chemistry problems remains to be watched.
The Two Misses
76ers 106-100 Knicks. Before the game I said “the Knicks are highly likely to win on the strength of the champions’ chemistry and bench depth”, and instead the 76ers won on the road. What worried me most going in was the 76ers’ lack of chemistry and how they’d protect an ageing LeBron and an injury-prone Embiid on defence, but their overall defence was far better than I expected, with a second-half defensive rating of just 90, and it limited the Knicks well. Much of the credit goes to the coach’s decision to have LeBron guard Towns, which protected Embiid from being pulled out of the paint, and LeBron’s defence was noteworthy and something I hadn’t anticipated. They also forced 14 Knicks turnovers and used their transition game to score 24 fast-break points. The flip side is that LeBron and Embiid both played over 30 minutes and the team was close to a seven-man rotation. I had expected the 76ers to manage minutes carefully early in the season, play the long game and aim more at the playoffs, and I didn’t expect them to push this hard from the start — that is the biggest reason I got it wrong. On the Knicks side, OG Anunoby and Bridges both shot poorly, and their offensive form needs watching.
Thunder 116-104 Spurs. Before the game I said “the Spurs beat the Thunder in last season’s West finals, Wembanyama keeps improving and Tobias Harris has been added; if the Thunder can’t solve the problem of Holmgren being suppressed by Wembanyama, they’ll always be at a disadvantage”. Instead, although Wembanyama still produced an excellent six blocks on defence, he scored 12 points on 1-of-13 shooting and was clearly off offensively. I was sceptical about Thunder rookie Aday Mara (“how much trouble can a rookie cause Wembanyama? I’m sceptical”), but in limited minutes he played well. The Spurs’ new three- or even four-guard setup doesn’t look effective so far, and Tobias Harris, their big pre-season addition, is currently injured and unavailable, so the Spurs may be stuck with a small line-up for a while.
Summary
Both teams that the market and I favoured, the Spurs and the Knicks, came unstuck, which shows that the biggest variable in predicting the NBA at the start of a season is lineup chemistry and a lack of warm-up. Because NBA preseason games never use players at 100% to manage injury risk, some teams’ chemistry and some players’ shooting touch can be off early in the season. Wembanyama’s 1-of-13, OG Anunoby’s 3-of-12 and Tatum’s 6-of-23 (0-for-7 from three) were all hard to predict beforehand.
Today’s hit rate was only 33%, and even the game that hit was a nervy one, to the point where I thought I’d be wiped out. All I can say is that team and star form is hard to grasp early in the season: I didn’t expect the 76ers to run a seven-man rotation in their first game (though perhaps it was to speed up chemistry? Who knows?), and I didn’t expect the Spurs to really commit to a three-guard line-up for long stretches. But those are exactly what made today’s predictions miss, and what I need to be more careful about when reading future games. In any case, as always: please bet responsibly.