The last piece covered the Atlantic Division’s outlook for the new season; this one turns to the Central. There may not be as many title contenders here as in the Atlantic, but it’s still got no shortage of playoff-caliber teams.
Detroit Pistons: last season’s East’s best record, but they might actually take a step back
Led by Cade Cunningham, the Pistons put together a 60-win regular season and the East’s best record last year, but stumbled through the playoffs — a shaky 4-3 first-round escape past the Magic, then a 3-4 second-round loss to division rival Cleveland. Jalen Duren’s poor showing drew heavy criticism from fans and the front office alike, and that’s part of why his extension talks stalled out this summer — the team has been unwilling to meet the max deal he’s looking for. On the roster front, they signed Isaiah Joe to add outside shooting, and brought in John Collins to fill the gap left by Tobias Harris’s departure — but Collins’ ball-handling is nowhere near Harris’ level, and finding a second shot-creator is going to be a real issue next season. Without a reliable second playmaker, and with some question marks about locker-room chemistry, I think the Pistons are more likely to take a step back than move forward next season unless Cunningham takes a leap to true MVP-level dominance — probably landing around 40 wins, hovering somewhere between the play-in and the playoff bubble.
Cleveland Cavaliers: loaded at both ends — but are they really title favorites?
After trading for James Harden last season, the Cavaliers were briefly seen as title favorites — a terrifying backcourt duo in Harden and Mitchell, plus a frontcourt pairing of former DPOY Mobley and rim-protecting finisher Jarrett Allen. But that highly-touted roster got swept 4-0 by the Knicks, once again exposing Harden and Mitchell’s defensive and toughness issues in playoff-level competition. This season they added Peyton Watson, who had a brief breakout in Denver last year — but he’s got injury concerns, and last year’s breakout is a small sample that may have owed a lot to the Jokić effect. Can he really solve Cleveland’s problem? I’m skeptical. Still, while this roster might struggle in playoff-level toughness, they’re plenty capable in the regular season — I’d expect 50-plus wins and a comfortable playoff berth.
Indiana Pacers: the franchise star returns, looking to bounce back
After a season built mostly around player development, the Pacers’ top star Haliburton is set to return this season. Compared to the roster that made the Finals two years ago, the biggest change is at center — swapping shooting-capable Myles Turner for the more traditional Zubac, which will inevitably shift Indiana’s spacing and defensive approach. Zubac is slower and a weaker rim protector, but his bulkier frame gives him a real edge in the post, and his rebounding and pick-and-roll game are also better than Turner’s. Bench scoring depth falls to newcomers Kelly Oubre Jr. and Larry Nance Jr.. Overall, Indiana’s answer to their Finals loss two years ago is to slow the pace down and lean harder into defensive physicality — but whether that answer actually works depends heavily on how well Haliburton’s recovery holds up and how quickly the pieces gel. With that much uncertainty, it’s hard to give the Pacers a confident projection — I’d put them in the same range as the Pistons, somewhere in the division’s top six, hovering around the play-in to playoff bubble.
Chicago Bulls: stockpiling talent, promising future
The Bulls are still very much in a rebuild, and this offseason they landed two lottery rookies in Caleb Wilson and Dailyn Swain, who should both get plenty of playing time next season. They also signed scoring guard Norman Powell, pairing him with holdover Josh Giddey and last year’s breakout, Matas Buzelis — overall, a genuinely talented young core. They won’t be competitive next season, but this is a young, high-upside group worth watching for the future. I’d project somewhere in the 25-to-35 win range — not a playoff team, but with a shot at sneaking into play-in contention.
Milwaukee Bucks: tearing it all down, starting over
Having moved on from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee is now officially in rebuild mode. This season is about showcasing assets and developing young players — and improving their lottery odds — more than winning games. I don’t think Tyler Herro is part of Milwaukee’s long-term future — realistically, getting back into title contention is a 3-to-5-year rebuild for the Bucks, and Herro’s ceiling doesn’t justify a max-level second-option salary. That said, they may well hand him a heavy usage rate this season to pad his numbers and set up future trade value. The real story of this season, though, will be whether the young pieces they got back from Miami get enough run to keep developing. Bottom line, Milwaukee is basically a full-on tank job right now — the goal is stockpiling talent, not wins — I’d project somewhere around 13 to 22 wins.
My take: it all comes down to whether Haliburton can come back
Overall, a big part of how this division shakes out depends on Haliburton’s return. If he’s healthy and the pieces gel well, this division could turn into a genuine three-team race. Given where medicine is today, I believe he has a real shot at getting back to his old form. My projected order for the division: Cavaliers, Pacers, Pistons, Bulls, Bucks.