With the East predictions done, let’s move on to the West. For a long stretch, the West was a genuine free-for-all, with more than ten teams realistically competing for a playoff spot. But with the Mavericks, Warriors, Clippers and others rebuilding one after another, the competitive picture out West is actually fairly clear right now — barring injuries, it’s basically two teams out front, with seven sides that project as solid playoff locks, and the rest not really treating this season as a wins-focused campaign. Here’s my personal read, with the same caveat as the East piece: preseason rankings are just for fun, take it lightly.
Top Six: the settled playoff tier
The six teams I expect to lock down a playoff spot without needing the play-in, in order:
- Thunder
- Spurs
- Rockets
- Nuggets
- Lakers
- Timberwolves (Trail Blazers)
Compared to the East, the top six out West is actually fairly clear-cut — aside from the Timberwolves, Trail Blazers and Lakers being harder to order given their different roster overhauls and how far along each is in gelling, the top four are all stable, consistently strong teams in the regular season. And even with their roster turnover, the Timberwolves, Trail Blazers and Lakers are still a clear step above the teams behind them. The ordering here is less a judgment on star power than on fit — Dončić has played alongside all kinds of stars and adapts extremely well, so I like him to deliver a stable season. And I trust the fit between Edwards and LaMelo a bit more than the pairing of Ja Morant and Damian Lillard, neither of whom played last season — which is why I have the Lakers and Timberwolves ahead of the Trail Blazers.
7-10: the play-in tier
- Trail Blazers
- Suns
- Mavericks
- Clippers
No need to repeat the Trail Blazers case. For the Suns, the roster looks a bit oddly shaped, but with Booker as the floor and the addition of All-Star-caliber forward Miles Bridges, a team that already sat in the play-in range last season shouldn’t slip much further even if they can’t climb higher. For the Mavericks, I like Flagg’s continued development, plus the returns of Irving and Lively, to give them a real shot at brushing up against the playoff picture. The Clippers are really just the best of a bad bunch — nearly every other team left is tanking: the Pelicans still have a relatively intact roster, but last season already proved that roster doesn’t work; the Warriors have Curry, but they’re down two key rotation pieces and their real focus is 2027; the Jazz’s roster is decent enough too, but they had a track record last season of resting stars for meaningful games… so honestly there’s no team here that stands out as particularly deserving of a play-in spot. The real competition out West is concentrated in the top six — the gap in the tier below that is fairly wide, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see any of these teams end up there.
Beyond 10th: no ranking given
I’m not ranking the tank/rebuild tier beyond 10th — these teams tend to sit out games for various “mysterious” reasons and lose on purpose, which makes preseason predictions for that group pretty meaningless anyway.