Yesterday I picked Cavaliers vs Hawks, and the Hawks rallied to win 114-111, so the prediction missed (the verification is already up). Today I’m picking two “revenge games”: Rockets vs Mavericks and Knicks vs 76ers. Both pairs have already met this season, with Houston winning 128-110 over Dallas and Philadelphia winning 106-100 over New York. But as the season has gone on, the Mavericks have gradually built some chemistry, and with Rockets center Sengun in doubt for this one, it’s a good chance for Dallas to get even. On the other side, the Knicks followed a three-game losing streak with two straight wins, their ice-cold outside shooting is warming up, and they’re starting to look like champions again, while I’ve expected the 76ers to rest their stars heavily during the season. Can the Knicks get their revenge? I’ll look at both games through recent form, injuries, rest and travel, home and away, what the market is saying, depth, specific tactical flaws and matchups.
Rockets @ Mavericks: 5-0 Houston Is Laid -6, and Sengun’s Doubt Doesn’t Move the Line
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/31 (Sat) 08:00 / ET 10/30 (Fri) 8:00 p.m. Line (taken the evening of 10/30, Pinnacle): Mavericks +6 (Rockets -6) / moneyline Rockets 1.42, Mavericks 3.02 / total 226 (over 1.95 / under 1.92; about 68% Rockets and 32% Mavericks after removing the margin).
Recent form: The Rockets are 5-0, scoring 123.0 and allowing 108.8 per game, a +14.2 margin, with every win by 4 or more. Their offensive rating of 123.5 and net rating of +14.3 are both first in the league (ratings from Basketball-Reference; adjusted for opponent strength the net rating is +17.6, also first), and their last-three net rating of +15.3 is second (NBA official). With VanVleet back, things look rosy. The Mavericks are 3-2, with an offensive rating of 113.7 (11th), a defensive rating of 111.6 (13th) and a net rating of +2.1 (13th), a mid-table team, but two straight wins (113-109 at Miami, 120-96 over Oklahoma City at home) show the chemistry improving.
Injuries: Rockets: Sengun (back, questionable), Sheppard (back, out), Smart (forearm, listed out but the note says questionable), Adams (calf, expected back 11/2). Mavericks: Marshall (illness, questionable), Biberovic and Aldama (doubtful), de Larrea (out), Lively has yet to play this season (expected back 11/2). Sengun sat out the last game and Houston still beat Milwaukee 132-100, so his absence doesn’t mean a Rockets loss, but he was a core piece of the 10/21 win over Dallas with 23 points. ⚠️ This list was compiled before the game; please defer to the official injury report.
Rest and travel: Both teams get one day off (each played on 10/28). Houston flies in from Milwaukee, Dallas is at home, so the difference is small. The real gap is momentum: Dallas’s last game was against a Thunder side missing six players, while Houston’s was a 32-point win.
Home and away: Houston is 3-0 on the road (Spurs, Hawks, Bucks); Dallas is 1-1 at home, and the loss was the 122-106 game against San Antonio in which neither Flagg nor Irving played. Dallas just beat Oklahoma City at home, but that was a Thunder team so hurt it had to lean heavily on rookies. This is their real test.
What the market is saying: Mavericks +6, about 68% for Houston after the margin comes off; bookmakers cluster between 5.5 and 6.5. The line says the market sees Houston as the clear stronger side and hasn’t shortened it for Sengun’s doubt: earlier the Mavericks’ moneyline was 2.96 and now it’s 3.02, so the number has moved toward the Rockets. The total of 226 is below Houston’s average game total (231.8) and level with Dallas’s (226.0).
Depth: On paper, the title-chasing Rockets are deeper, but with Sheppard expected out and Eason slotting into the starting five when Sengun is out (he started 30 minutes on 10/28), the reliable bench is down to Bogdanović (16 points in 15 minutes on 10/28) and Capela (10 points in 21). For Dallas, Risacher scored 13 on 10/28 with 2 of 3 from three and has shown signs of improving, but when neither Flagg nor Irving is on the floor the team’s engine stalls (the 10/24 loss to San Antonio is the example). Their bench scoring isn’t low (43 points against the Thunder on 10/28), but it’s spread very evenly, with no one who can carry the scoring alone, and no third player can reliably start the offence. Houston still has a slight edge in depth.
Specific tactical flaws: Houston has no obvious weakness, and the only worry is the frontcourt when Sengun is out. Dallas’s defence is only mid-table, and last time against Houston they had 21 turnovers, gave up 29 fast-break points (to their own 17) and lost the rebounds 44 to 52. All three would be magnified against the Rockets.
Matchups and key players: The big draw is the wing battle. Durant (22.4 points a game), a top scorer of the previous generation, plus the young Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson, form the wing group that underpins Houston’s strength at both ends. Dallas answers with Flagg, Risacher and Washington, who have been getting better and better, and played some fluid team basketball against the Thunder last time out.
Pick: Rockets on the moneyline (odds 1.42; -6 on the spread points the same way). The Rockets are 5-0 with the league’s best offensive rating, and last time they beat Dallas 128-110. Even if Sengun sits, I don’t think Dallas’s frontcourt is strong enough to turn that into an edge, and in a wing battle I think the side with Durant still has a slight advantage. Add that Dallas’s offence stalls when Flagg and Irving are off the floor, and I think Houston’s chance of winning is somewhat higher. Backup: over 226 (1.95): Houston’s games average 231.8 total points and the 10/21 meeting reached 238, so judging by history I think the over has a decent chance. But the biggest variable in this game is the official injury report: if Sengun’s and Marshall’s statuses differ from the above, think again.
Before the season I placed the Rockets at playoff level and the Mavericks as rebuilding with limited competitiveness (see the Southwest Division preview and the Western Conference prediction guide), so this game is a good test of that view.
Knicks @ 76ers: The Four-Star 76ers Rank 25th in Offence, So Why Are the Knicks Laid -1.5?
Tip-off: Taiwan time 10/31 (Sat) 07:30 / ET 10/30 (Fri) 7:30 p.m. Line (taken the evening of 10/30, Pinnacle): 76ers +1.5 (Knicks -1.5) / moneyline Knicks 1.81, 76ers 2.09 / total 227.5 (over 1.91 / under 1.96; about 53.6% Knicks and 46.4% 76ers after removing the margin).
Recent form: The Knicks are 2-3 but have won two straight (Pistons, Bulls), and Brunson scored 23 and 38 in those two. The 76ers are 4-1, 2-1 over the last three. Philadelphia’s season offensive rating is only 106.6, 26th in the league (24th over the last three, NBA official), and they’re held up by the third-best defence (103.6), so their +3.0 net rating (12th) is really only average. The Knicks’ net rating is +0.3 (15th), recovering to +3.3 (11th, NBA official) over the last three.
Injuries: The Knicks are missing only reserve guard Alvarado. For the 76ers, Jaylen Brown (knee, questionable), Walker (out), Barlow and Fall (out), and Hukporti is out for the season. Twice this season a Philadelphia starter has been absent from the box score: LeBron (10/24), Embiid and Edgecombe (10/25), both on the two days of a back-to-back. The box score doesn’t give a reason, and before the season I expected them to rest heavily in the Atlantic Division preview. But there’s no back-to-back in this one, so I’d guess the starters play; that is only a guess. ⚠️ Please defer to the official injury report; Brown is the biggest variable here.
Rest and travel: Both teams get a day off (each played on 10/28). New York flies in from Chicago; Philadelphia beat Indiana on the road and came home. The difference is small.
Home and away: The Knicks are 1-1 on the road (won at Chicago, lost at Boston) and 1-2 at home; the 76ers are 2-1 at home (the loss to Detroit came without Embiid and Edgecombe) and 2-0 on the road. This is Philadelphia’s third home game and the second meeting with New York.
What the market is saying: Knicks -1.5, about 53.6% / 46.4% after the margin, with bookmakers clustered between 76ers +1.5 and +2. The line says the market sees the teams as about equal, with a slight lean to the reigning champions. The total of 227.5 is about 8 points above both teams’ five-game average totals (Knicks 219.4, 76ers 218.2), so both teams’ actual totals have come in under the line; but the Knicks just played a 133-127, 260-point game on 10/28, and single-game swings are large (Knicks totals ranged from 206 to 260 over five games, the 76ers’ from 199 to 243).
Depth: The Knicks’ starters, Brunson, Towns, Bridges, Hart and Anunoby, are stable, and even without Alvarado the bench has Shamet and others. The 76ers’ starters, Maxey, Embiid, Brown, LeBron and Edgecombe, are complete, but as I feared before the season, their bench is thin, mostly Caldwell-Pope and Simons, and they have almost no suitable frontcourt backups.
Specific tactical flaws: For the Knicks it’s less a tactical flaw than a shooting one: Bridges has averaged just 5.0 points over five games (4, 0, 6, 12 and 3), and Hart has scored 6 and 2 over the last two, so neither is scoring efficiently, although Bridges did get 12 against Detroit on 10/27 before dropping back to 3 on 10/28. The Knicks’ steady edge is rebounding (60.8 a game to opponents’ 54.6), and Towns has grabbed 12, 14, 20 and 13 over his last four. The 76ers have weak frontcourt backups and low offensive efficiency, and they average 56.0 rebounds to their opponents’ 61.6, having been outrebounded in four of five games.
Matchups and key players: In the 10/20 game, the 76ers had LeBron guard Towns so Embiid could stay at the rim and protect it, and Bridges and others on the perimeter couldn’t punish that sagging defence, which is how Philadelphia won. This time, beyond the players themselves, whether either coach can produce an effective answer is one of the keys.
Pick: Knicks on the moneyline (odds 1.81; -1.5 on the spread points the same way). I already picked the Knicks last time, but in that game Bridges scored just 4 and Anunoby shot 1 of 9 from three for 10 points, and even so New York lost by only 6. Now that the Knicks’ offence has steadied, with Brown’s injury doubt and Philadelphia’s frontcourt backup problem on top, as long as there’s no repeat of that opening-night three-point disaster, I think New York can get its revenge. Backup: under 227.5 (1.96): both teams’ average game totals are well below this line, and Philadelphia’s defence is third in the league, so the under has its logic; but the 76ers’ pace of 104.0 is on the fast side league-wide, which is the other side of the under, so keep that in mind.
The Limits of This Round: A Judgement Built on Averages Can Be Overturned by One Game
I leaned heavily on efficiency ratings and per-game averages here, but with only five games played, one game can easily skew the numbers. The Knicks’ five totals run from 206 to 260, a span of 54 points, and my under backup rests on “both teams’ averages are below the line”, which a single shootout like the one on 10/28 would overturn; Houston’s league-best offensive rating owes a lot to the 132 points it scored at Milwaukee on 10/28 alone. On top of that, both games have a key player (Sengun, Brown) still questionable before the game, so my picks hold only on the assumption that each plays. If the official injury report differs from what’s written here, defer to the report. The above prediction is for reference only; please bet responsibly.