With the division-by-division previews out of the way, it’s time for an overall guess at how the East and West shake out. Basketball doesn’t produce as many outright upsets as other sports, but injuries tend to swing things harder — especially with rosters turning over faster these days and defensive rotations getting more demanding, star players keep running into injury trouble. That makes injuries the single biggest reason preseason predictions end up wrong, so this ranking deliberately leaves injuries out of the equation. Preseason rankings are mostly for fun anyway — take it in that spirit.
Top Six: the settled playoff tier
The six teams I expect to lock down a playoff spot without needing the play-in, in order:
- Knicks
- Cavaliers
- 76ers
- Celtics
- Pacers
- Heat (or the Raptors, if the Leonard trade goes through)
The debatable calls here are probably the Pacers and Heat, plus the absence of the Pistons. Putting the Pacers in the top six is honestly a bet — Haliburton’s form is still an open question after missing a full season. But I think his game doesn’t lean heavily on athleticism, and with a full year of rehab behind him he should be close to his old level; the Pacers’ overall roster strength isn’t far off from their Finals run, so I like them to work their way back into the top six. For the Heat, the real issue is bench depth — the starting five is complete now that they’ve added Klay Thompson, but thin depth behind them will cap how far they can go. As for the Pistons, despite topping their division last season, an offseason falling-out with Jalen Duren plus the departure of secondary ball-handler Tobias Harris means next season probably won’t look as good. The Raptors, meanwhile, are hanging on the still-unresolved Leonard trade — if it actually goes through, I think they have a real shot at cracking the top six.
7-10: the play-in tier
- Pistons
- Raptors (Heat could slide into this range instead, if the Leonard trade goes through)
- Hawks
- Magic
Every team here has its own issue. The Pistons’ problem is covered above; the Hawks made modest upgrades this summer, but nothing close to what other teams added, and after landing in this range last year, another leap looks unlikely. The Magic are stuck on where their two forward stars, Banchero and Wagner, stand — their perimeter shooting issues badly capped the offense last season, and while the defense ranks near the top of the league, the offensive problems won’t fix themselves unless both players make a real jump in their shooting this year. Barring that, breaking out of the play-in range looks unlikely.
Beyond 10th: no ranking given
I’m not ranking the tank/rebuild tier beyond 10th — these teams tend to sit out games for various “mysterious” reasons and lose on purpose, which makes preseason predictions for that group pretty meaningless anyway.