All five focus clubs’ matchweek 3 fixtures are done, so as usual, here’s a check of how the pre-match predictions actually held up.
Five predictions, three correct
| Fixture | Pre-match pick | Actual score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City vs Coventry | City to keep up their strong run | City 1-0 Coventry | ✅ |
| Ipswich vs Liverpool | Liverpool to win, goals at both ends, high total | Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool | ✅ |
| Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham | Forest to win | Forest 0-0 Spurs | ❌ |
| Arsenal vs Chelsea | Arsenal to edge it at home | Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea | ✅ |
| Man United vs Everton | United to win away | Everton 2-2 United | ❌ |
Three of the five predictions got the outcome right — a 60% hit rate, a clear drop from matchweek 2’s 83.3%.
The three hits: the read on big clubs vs mid-table sides still held
Man City vs Coventry went exactly as expected — Maresca’s tweaks kept paying off, and City extended their run to three straight wins, with the one flagged concern about Enzo Fernández’s chemistry not causing any visible issues so far. Arsenal vs Chelsea was this round’s standout Big Six clash — Chelsea took an early lead through a lightning strike from Morgan Rogers, but Arsenal turned it around through Havertz’s equalizer and Ødegaard’s winner, matching the pre-match read that Arsenal’s defense would hold up Chelsea’s firepower for a narrow home win exactly.
Ipswich vs Liverpool got the winner right, but the pre-match detail — “goals at both ends, a high total” — was flat-out wrong: Ipswich were shut out 0-2, and the match only produced two goals total, well below what was expected. Isak scored twice inside the first nine minutes with a Gakpo assist, giving Iraola his first win as Liverpool boss — and this time it was Liverpool’s defense holding firm rather than being exposed, the opposite of the pre-match concern about their back line.
The two misses: mid-table resistance got underestimated
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham was picked as a Forest win, banking on their head-to-head record and Tottenham’s two straight bad losses and goalless start to the season. It ended 0-0 — Tottenham’s struggles in front of goal were confirmed, but Forest also failed to find a way through, so the call only got half the picture right.
Man United vs Everton was this round’s biggest surprise. United were picked to carry matchweek 2’s momentum into an away win, but Everton’s new signing Maitland-Niles equalized in stoppage time on his debut, forcing a 2-2 draw. What this really exposes is a variable the pre-match read didn’t account for: the emotion and drive of a debutant’s first appearance is often harder to predict than what’s on paper — that’s the real lesson from this miss.