Premier League matchweek 8: the biggest draw is Chelsea against a Spurs side that has just won for the first time, with Chelsea having just lost goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez and forced to use young Mike Penders against a Spurs front line that is coming back to life, which should be an exciting game. The other big talking point is the storm in the United dressing room, and this game against Bournemouth may be the last chance for some people. The previous round’s predictions and verification are both up; this round the six big clubs play only five games because Chelsea and Spurs meet each other, and the midweek Champions League matchday 3 gave City, Arsenal, Liverpool and United an extra game each, so fixture congestion and injuries are the common backdrop.
Aston Villa vs Man City: City Are 7 for 7, and Villa Are Missing Both Full-Backs
Kick-off: Taiwan time 10/24 (Sat) 19:30 / UK 12:30, Villa Park. Odds (fetched 10/23, average of 41 books): Villa 4.81 / draw 4.35 / City 1.62 (de-vigged 20% / 22% / 59%); over 2.5 goals 1.50 / under 2.5 goals 2.54 (only 3 books, for reference).
Recent form: City have won all 7 (19 scored, 7 conceded), most recently 3-2 against Ipswich, and 5-1 against AEK in the Champions League on Tuesday (Foden hat-trick); Villa are 11th (2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, only 7 goals), 1-0 at Newcastle last Saturday and 3-1 against Viking in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Injuries: Villa are without Wan-Bissaka (hamstring, three to four weeks according to Emery) and Ruggeri (hamstring, about two months), Onana and Maatsen are expected to miss out (accounts vary slightly), and Manzambi may return. For City, Haaland has been confirmed fit to start (rested on Tuesday, a little limp late in the Ipswich game), Maresca says Foden, Doku and Cherki are all fit; Semenyo is out for about 8 weeks with a knee injury and Nunes is out; Gvardiol had a small back problem in the warm-up but is available.
Fixture congestion: City played Tuesday in the Champions League and now Saturday; Villa played Wednesday (one day less rest than City), and with both full-backs missing, the flanks are an obvious weak spot.
Class gap / market attitude: City are 1.62 away favourites and the market sees them as clearly stronger; although the over 2.5 goals line has only 3 books, City have had plenty of goals in each of their last four league games, and Villa’s last four have also had big scores (3-2 Spurs, 2-2 Brentford).
Verdict: The market likes City and so do I: City are unbeaten in the league this season, and with Villa’s full-backs out, they should have big trouble with the in-form Doku and Foden. City’s back line has been conceding for several games running, but I still expect them to win on firepower. The over line at 1.50 is even shorter than City’s win price, so there’s little value there, and my fallback would be both teams to score.
Arsenal vs Everton: Saka’s Injury Is Unclear, and Arsenal’s Performances Aren’t as Strong as Their Position
Kick-off: Taiwan time 10/24 (Sat) 22:00 / UK 15:00, Emirates. Odds (fetched 10/23, average of 42 books): Arsenal 1.43 / draw 4.47 / Everton 7.67 (de-vigged 66% / 21% / 12%); over 2.5 goals 1.82 / under 2.5 goals 1.97 (19 books, over de-vigged 52%, close to a coin flip).
Recent form: Arsenal are 2nd (6 wins, 1 defeat), 1-0 against Forest in the league (only one shot on target all game last Sunday) and 2-2 away at Bayern in the Champions League on Wednesday (more shots and possession than Bayern, with Saka going off after 10 minutes); Everton are 8th, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last five, 0-2 against Chelsea last time, 8 scored and 7 conceded.
Injuries: Saka’s quad injury, which Arteta said “doesn’t look good at all”, has no official diagnosis so far and sources expect him to miss at least a few weeks; Saliba (back) and Tzolis (hamstring) are out; Hincapié’s ankle could be back in time (Arteta says he can play if he trains this week); Everton have almost no injury reports, with only Mykolenko listed as a doubt in some sources.
Fixture congestion: Arsenal only finished in Munich on Wednesday night, with just 3 days’ rest; Everton have no European football and are fully rested.
Class gap / market attitude: The market makes Arsenal 66% favourites, but the over/under is almost a coin flip, which shows the market is also unsure about the goal count.
Specific tactical flaw: Saka went off after 10 minutes in the Champions League and Arsenal still scored twice to draw with Bundesliga heavyweights Bayern, showing the squad’s firepower is recovering; Everton are physical and press hard, but aren’t good on the ball and will struggle against Arsenal’s midfield and back line.
Verdict: Although Arsenal are second in the league, their performances haven’t been as strong as the table suggests. They’ve scored only 11 goals in seven league games, and last Sunday had only one shot on target all game, which can’t be hidden even though they won. Their firepower recovered a bit in the Bayern game, but there is still a gap from last season’s strength. But Everton’s attack hasn’t been great either, with just 8 goals so far, and they were shut out by Chelsea last time. So overall I like Arsenal to win a low-scoring game on the strength of their defence. My fallback is also the under, and I expect 1-0 or 2-0.
Chelsea vs Spurs: Chelsea Without Their First-Choice Keeper Face Spurs After a First Win
Kick-off: Taiwan time 10/25 (Sun) 00:30 / UK 17:30, Stamford Bridge. Odds (fetched 10/23, average of 42 books): Chelsea 1.70 / draw 4.17 / Spurs 4.39 (de-vigged 56% / 23% / 22%); over 2.5 goals 1.50 / under 2.5 goals 2.56 (only 3 books, for reference).
Recent form: Chelsea are 4th (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 13 conceded), 2-0 against Everton last time (Pedro Neto scored twice), 5-1 against Bournemouth before that and 0-3 at Brentford, so they’re very up and down; Spurs are 15th (1 win, 3 draws, 3 defeats, only 6 scored), 3-1 against Coventry last time for their first league win of the season, having not won in the league before that.
Injuries: Chelsea’s goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez broke his jaw against Everton and is out for several weeks, with Mike Penders expected to make his Premier League debut; reports differ on Reece James’ knee operation, with newer reports saying he won’t be back this year; Gittens is out, and Chavarría and Emegha are doubts. For Spurs, Bentancur is serving a three-match ban, Bergvall is out with a knee injury, and Porro and Udogie both missed the last game and are doubts here.
Morale: Spurs have just taken their first win of the season and have a bit more confidence; Chelsea have just beaten Everton but lost their first-choice keeper.
Specific tactical flaw: Chelsea’s defensive holes have been there all season (13 conceded in 7 games), and now the goalkeeper is expected to be Penders in his Premier League debut; Spurs’ attack is short of firepower (only 6 goals in 7 games), so will the two flaws cancel each other out?
Market attitude: 1.70 home favourites (de-vigged 56%), with a high over price (only 3 books).
Verdict: Chelsea’s defensive problems aren’t solved yet this season and losing Martínez makes it worse, while Spurs have just taken their first win and their morale is high. But Chelsea are at home, their firepower this season has been good, and a shootout is the kind of game Chelsea like. Spurs’ win was against newly promoted Coventry, all three goals were long shots from the edge of the box, and how to get the ball into the box and build a threatening attack is still not solved. So I expect Chelsea to win at home on firepower. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are both very likely here, and either can be used as a fallback.
Man United vs Bournemouth: The United Dressing-Room Storm, and Perhaps a Last Chance?
Kick-off: Taiwan time 10/25 (Sun) 22:00 / UK 14:00, Old Trafford. Odds (fetched 10/23, average of 42 books): United 2.08 / draw 3.67 / Bournemouth 3.31 (de-vigged 46% / 26% / 29%); over 2.5 goals 1.61 / under 2.5 goals 2.30 (16 books, over de-vigged 59%).
Recent form: United are 13th (1 win, 4 draws, 2 defeats), winless in seven in all competitions (Sky’s count: 3 draws and 4 defeats), 1-4 against Como in the Champions League on Wednesday, after which Carrick said he was “really angry” and Bruno Fernandes publicly criticised the coaching staff’s pressing plan; Bournemouth are 16th (1 win, 3 draws, 3 defeats), 2-0 against Sunderland last time (their only league win of the season, with D D L L W in their last five).
Injuries: For United, Mainoo is out for about another 10 days and Shaw longer, with Sesko, Ugarte and Dorgu out long term; De Ligt is back (started against Como); Yoro’s European ban is over and he can return to the Premier League squad; Lisandro Martínez (a thigh problem, “not that bad” according to Carrick) and Rashford (hip) are waiting on a press-conference update; Heaven is ill; Bruno Fernandes had a small injury before the game and his availability hasn’t been confirmed. For Bournemouth, Kroupi has returned to training after foot surgery and could play; Alex Scott is out for at least two weeks and Araujo is out.
Morale / dressing room: The coach and captain traded public criticism after the game, and how that gets resolved at Friday’s press conference is the hidden variable here; Carrick is reportedly still in charge for this game.
Fixture congestion: United played the Champions League on Wednesday night and are at home on Sunday; Bournemouth have no European football and are fully rested.
Market attitude: The market still sees United as slight home favourites (de-vigged 46%), with the over favoured.
Verdict: This may be United’s best chance of a win lately, at home against lower-placed Bournemouth, and if they can’t win even this, then with the public conflict between players and coach, Carrick’s job may really be over. Even so, I still don’t back United, whose recent displays are less careless than lost. Bruno Fernandes, once the assist king, now gives the impression of shrugging and not tracking back, yet he is still the team’s most creative attacker, which tells you how bad United’s current state is. Honestly, I don’t think Bruno Fernandes is entirely to blame: they conceded inside two minutes in two straight Champions League games, who could take that? Their attacking system and personnel really don’t fit, and that drags down the defence too. So although it goes against the market, I’m backing Bournemouth not to lose in this one, with over as the fallback.
Liverpool vs Brighton: The Big Club With the Fewest Goals Meets the Team With the Most
Kick-off: Taiwan time 10/25 (Sun) 22:00 / UK 14:00, Anfield. Odds (fetched 10/23, average of 42 books): Liverpool 2.10 / draw 3.79 / Brighton 3.14 (de-vigged 45% / 25% / 30%); over 2.5 goals 1.57 / under 2.5 goals 2.39 (10 books, over de-vigged 60%).
Recent form: Liverpool are 5th (3 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat), only 9 goals in 7 league games (a below-average figure), and 4-3 against Villarreal in the Champions League on Tuesday (a comeback from 0-2 down, with the defence conceding three in each of two straight games); Brighton are 3rd (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat), with 23 goals the most in the league and only 5 conceded, and 5-0 against Crystal Palace last time.
Injuries: For Liverpool, Szoboszlai’s hamstring injury is expected to keep him out, Frimpong is expected to miss about a month and Munoz is a doubt, with Ekitike and Bradley out long term; Isak’s minutes are being managed and he is expected to return to the starting line-up; there are also reports that Barcola missed training on Thursday, and his availability is yet to be confirmed. For Brighton, Mitoma, Minteh, Ferguson and Tzimas are out, and Wieffer and Struijk are doubts.
Fixture congestion: Liverpool played Brentford on Saturday, the Champions League on Tuesday and now this on Sunday, three games in a week; Brighton are fully rested.
Class gap / market attitude: This is the closest three-way game of the round (45% / 25% / 30%), with Brighton’s attack the best in the league while Liverpool’s attack is their biggest problem this season, and with the defence leaking lately, can they stop the explosive Brighton?
Specific tactical flaw: Liverpool’s defence has conceded three in each of two straight Champions League games, and against the league’s most potent attack that problem could well be magnified.
Verdict: Brighton are third in the league behind City and Arsenal, their 23 goals are the most in the league, and in their last two games they beat Crystal Palace 5-0 and won 4-0 in the Conference League, so their attacking firepower is fierce indeed. But Liverpool have won three straight in all competitions since losing to City on 10/11, and in that City game they were actually the side in control before going down to ten men, so they’ve been gradually finding a top-team level. I think this will be a great clash of strong sides, and the biggest variable remains Barcola, who joined Liverpool this summer: he has scored a hat-trick in the Champions League this season but is yet to open his Premier League account, missing the final touch many times, and still hasn’t turned his dribbling and ball-carrying threat into real damage. With Gakpo’s condition unclear, whether Barcola can bring enough destruction against Brighton will be the key to the result. Personally, it’s a bit of a gamble, but I’m backing Barcola to score his first Premier League goal in this one and lead Liverpool to a win. The over price isn’t attractive, so my fallback is both teams to score.
Limits of the Method This Round: When Even the Key Players Are Uncertain, Prediction Is Partly Guesswork
As the season goes on, more and more teams are hit by injuries to key players: Saka, Gakpo and Emiliano Martínez are all out or unclear, and teams are forced to use players there’s no data on, like Chelsea’s keeper Penders. At times like this, neither AI nor I can judge the effect of the change well, and prediction has to rely partly on guesswork. Several of my calls this round, such as whether Arsenal can win a low-scoring game against Everton on the strength of their defence, rest on the assumption that Saka is out, and my faith in Barcola won’t be known to have paid off or not until the official line-ups come out. So these predictions are for reference only: please check the official injury reports and line-ups, and please bet responsibly.