El Clásico: Barcelona have won all 9 La Liga games and scored 39 goals, six points clear of third-placed Real Madrid. They lost 2-4 at PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday for their first defeat of the season, but judging by the game their form is actually not bad (the Champions League matchday 3 verification has the details); Real Madrid beat Leipzig 4-1 in the Champions League on Wednesday, scoring four in each of their last three, but they are without the suspended Vinícius (although, honestly, I think that is a plus for them). The market makes Barcelona 59% favourites, and the main goals line is as high as 4.5. The game kicks off at Taiwan time 10/26 (Mon) 04:00 (Spain 10/25 Sunday 21:00, Spotify Camp Nou, La Liga matchday 10). I’ll break it down through recent form, injuries, fixture congestion, home advantage, head-to-head and market attitude; for where the two teams sit this season, read alongside the La Liga 2026-27 preseason review.

Odds (fetched 10/23, average of 39 books): Barcelona 1.60 / draw 5.48 / Real Madrid 3.93 (de-vigged 59% / 17% / 24%).

Recent Form: Barcelona Unbeaten in the League but Just Beaten in Europe, Real Madrid Scoring Four a Game

Barcelona: 9 wins from 9 in La Liga (39 scored, 9 conceded) and 23 straight home league wins; they lost 2-4 at PSG in the Champions League on Tuesday for their first defeat of the season (Rodri rested, Koundé out, Olmo injured; in that game PSG’s xG was about 3.7 to 2.2 and shots on target 15 to 5).

Real Madrid: 7 wins and 2 defeats in La Liga, 0-1 at Betis and 1-2 at Atlético away; most recently 4-1 against Sevilla and 4-1 against Leipzig in the Champions League (Vinícius started, Diomande scored as a substitute); Mbappé has 9 league goals.

Injuries: Barcelona’s Defence Is Short of Players, Real Madrid Lose Vinícius

Barcelona: Olmo (adductor, out about a month, injured against PSG), Eric García (right thigh, 3 to 4 weeks), Christensen and Bardghji are out; Koundé (left ankle sprain) is reported differently by different sources, with some saying he’s expected back soon and might play on Sunday and others saying he’s out; Raphinha has just returned from a hamstring injury and is expected to start. Rodri was rested against PSG and is expected to start this one.

Real Madrid: Vinícius is suspended after his red card against Villarreal (reports say he is serving the second game of a four-match ban), and Asencio and Rodrygo are out; Mendy has only partially returned to training after a long injury, and Rüdiger may also miss out. Mourinho has to rework the left-sided attack this week.

Fixture Congestion: Real Madrid Have One Day Less Rest

Barcelona played the Champions League on Tuesday (10/20) and then Sunday’s Clásico, with 5 days’ rest; Real Madrid played Sevilla on Sunday (10/18), the Champions League on Wednesday (10/21) and then the Clásico on Sunday, with only 4 days. Real Madrid have one day less rest than Barcelona and a long trip away.

Home Advantage: 23 Straight at Camp Nou

Camp Nou has seen 23 straight league home wins; Real Madrid have lost two league games away this year, 0-1 at Betis and 1-2 at Atlético, and haven’t kept an away clean sheet. Home advantage is large for Barcelona.

Head-to-Head: Barcelona Won 4 of the Last 5

  • 2026/5/10 La Liga: Barcelona 2-0 Real Madrid
  • 2026/1/11 Spanish Super Cup: Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid
  • 2025/10/26 La Liga: Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona
  • 2025/5/11 La Liga: Barcelona 4-3 Real Madrid
  • 2025/4/26 Copa del Rey final: Barcelona 3-2 Real Madrid

Barcelona won 4 of the last 5, most recently 2-0 at Camp Nou; Real Madrid’s last win over Barcelona was 2-1 at the Bernabéu in October 2025. That record favours Barcelona, and this is also Mourinho’s first Clásico since returning to Real Madrid, 13 years after his last one.

Market Attitude: Only 17% for the Draw, but a Main Goals Line of 4.5

Barcelona 1.60 / draw 5.48 / Real Madrid 3.93, de-vigged 59% / 17% / 24%, so the market sees Barcelona as clear favourites; the draw is only 17%, which says the market expects a decisive result. The main goals line is as high as 4.5 (12 books, over 2.09 / under 1.71, over de-vigged at 45%), and Clásicos have indeed often been high-scoring (total goals in the last five: 2, 5, 3, 7, 5), but this line is rare in La Liga. The over 2.5 line has only 3 books and is for reference only.

Specific Tactical Flaw: Neither Side Keeps Clean Sheets

Barcelona’s high line vs Mbappé: With Koundé and Eric García out, the back line will lean heavily on Cubarsí and Cancelo, and Real Madrid’s Bellingham and Güler can both put the ball into the space behind for Mbappé.

Real Madrid’s away defence: They haven’t kept an away clean sheet this season and haven’t kept one in the last 12 Clásicos, and Barcelona’s Yamal, Raphinha and Fermín can all beat a man one-on-one.

New Signings and Morale: Mourinho’s First Clásico

  • This is Mourinho’s first Clásico since his return, and whether Real Madrid’s line-up has bedded in (new faces such as Diomande, Cucurella and Konaté, see the Real Madrid summer window) is one to watch;
  • After losing to PSG in the Champions League, Flick said “the players were tired and made too many mistakes”, and whether Barcelona can rediscover their rhythm at home is the key (whether the new signings in the Barcelona summer window can cope is another thing to watch).

Verdict: Barcelona to Win, With Both Teams to Score as the Fallback

On recent form, there’s no reason not to pick Barcelona to win. Their firepower this season has been astonishing, and although they just lost to PSG, that was without Rodri, and PSG have always been strong in Europe. Back in La Liga, Barcelona’s firepower is the best around, and the rotations of the striker-less attack leave every defence unable to cope. Raphinha and Yamal have both been excellent this season, and the other winger Gordon has scored fewer goals but is outstanding for his unselfish play and ability to tear a defence apart; they are without Olmo, but the Barcelona bench still has Fermín López to cover for that. On top of that, the game is at home for Barcelona and they have one more day’s rest than Madrid, so the overall advantage is clear. On the Madrid side, Vinícius is out, but I think that’s actually a plus for them: Diomande’s recent form is far better than Vinícius’, and with Barcelona’s back line missing Koundé and García, if Diomande can use his dribbling to blow open the flank, Madrid may still have a chance. But in an era that prizes midfield control, Barcelona’s midfield and counter-pressing are far better than Madrid’s, so backing Barcelona is absolutely the most reasonable judgement right now. For the fallback, both teams are in good form, and even 4.5 goals has a fair chance, so my first choice is both teams to score, then the over.

Limits of the Method Here: The Line-ups and a Line That Looks Absurd

A few things here won’t be settled until just before kick-off: Koundé’s and Raphinha’s minutes won’t be known until an hour before the game, and my judgement has to flip with the starting line-ups; Rodri is the player I got wrong once already, since his rest against PSG in the Champions League threw my read off, and this time I expect him to start! And the 4.5-goal line looks high at first sight, but given both teams’ form and value, the prediction is actually quite reasonable: Barcelona alone average over 4 goals a game in La Liga this season, and thinking about it, it doesn’t seem so impossible. Still, the historic Clásico sample is only five games, so these judgements keep a bit of guesswork in them. These predictions are for reference only: please check the official injury reports and starting line-ups, and please bet responsibly.