The headline game of NBA opening week’s ninth day is over. My pre-game prediction was: “if Irving rests, the Thunder win; if Irving plays, the Mavericks win.” Irving played, and the Mavericks did beat the Thunder 120-96. But overall the Mavericks won far too easily, and the way it played out differed from what I expected. (For the previous round’s results, see the previous verification.)
| Matchup (away @ home) | Pre-game prediction | Pre-game line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder @ Mavericks | Conditional: Irving rests → Thunder; Irving plays → Mavericks | Thunder -6, total 229.5 | Mavericks 120-96 | ✅ (Irving played, Mavericks won; total 216) |
Mavericks 120-96 Thunder: The Condition Held and the Direction Was Right, but It Was Easier Than I Thought
Mavericks 120-96 Thunder. Before the game I said this would depend on whether Irving played, and that was right: he played 26:58 and scored only 15 points (3/8 from three) with 4 assists, but the Mavericks outscored the Thunder by 25 with him on the floor, the best plus-minus of anyone in the game. Flagg, alongside him, put up 26 points and 8 assists, and the Mavericks as a team shot 47.4%, had 30 assists and only 9 turnovers, so the offence flowed far better.
The Thunder’s depth problem from missing six players was also called correctly: the bench scored 19 for the Thunder and 43 for the Mavericks, and the three rookies Stirtz, Dix and Barnhizer played 66 minutes combined for just 13 points (5/16) with plus-minus of -14, -20 and -16, so the bridge minutes clearly lacked firepower. As for the pre-game question of whether Mitchell could carry the second ball-handler role, it was only half right: his 29 points (12/20) made him the Thunder’s most efficient player, but he could only carry his own scoring and couldn’t make the whole team more comfortable. SGA had 21 points on 7/19 with a -21, McCain shot 3/13, and the Thunder as a team hit 5/32 (15.6%) from three against the Mavericks’ 16/45.
Two pre-game expectations didn’t happen. First, I wrote that the Mavericks could only win a shootout, but they won by holding the Thunder to 96. Second, I wrote that the Thunder’s pressure against a Mavericks team averaging 17 turnovers a game would be the key, but the Mavericks turned it over only 9 times and the Thunder made just 4 steals, with fast-break points 0 to 17. The market’s view that the Thunder were still clearly stronger even short-handed (-6) was thoroughly overturned too: the final margin was 24 points, missing the spread by 30.
| Thunder | Mavericks | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter scores | 30-29-22-15 | 33-32-29-26 |
| Field goals | 36/87 (41.4%) | 46/97 (47.4%) |
| Threes | 5/32 (15.6%) | 16/45 (35.6%) |
| Assists / turnovers | 17 / 13 | 30 / 9 |
| Fast-break points | 0 | 17 |
| Bench points | 19 | 43 |
Takeaway: The Direction Was Right, but the Game Was More One-Sided Than I Expected
The direction was right, but the game was more one-sided than I expected. Irving scored only 15, but his +25 was the best in the game, repeatedly tearing through the Thunder’s defence with his drives, and he played under 27 minutes, so he really was the key to the win. What I didn’t see coming was how badly the Thunder’s offence would look without Jalen Williams, shooting 5/32 from three for 15.6%. But in my own subjective view, watching how it unfolded, it was less that the Mavericks defended well and more that this Thunder group was poor at converting chances: plenty of shots were open, and they just didn’t go in. And the defence the Thunder had shown before the game didn’t work this time either, forcing no Mavericks turnovers and scoring zero fast-break points all night. The game reached garbage time early, and while I expected the Mavericks to win, I never expected it to be this easy.
The injury wave to start this NBA season has been especially severe, with many stars reported out. The Thunder are the biggest victims of it: Jalen Williams and Wallace went down in the same game, both with major injuries that could end their seasons, which took two starters away at a stroke. Holmgren and Caruso have also begun missing games through injury, and given their injury histories it’s hard to expect either to stay healthy all season. The rotation depth the Thunder were so proud of before the season suddenly looks stretched, forcing them to play lots of rookies, and judging by tonight’s game, those rookies clearly haven’t adjusted to the intensity of the NBA yet. That puts a big question mark over the Thunder’s title run this year, but if they miss this year, their rapidly rising salaries over the next few seasons will increasingly eat into the value of their rookie deals, and the road to a title will only get harder. As for the Mavericks, since changing coaches for the new season they have shown a genuinely good new look on offence, and the team-oriented style keeps the ball moving smoothly. But they still lean too heavily on Flagg and Irving to create chances, and the team clearly stalls when neither is on the floor, so whether they can fix that will be a big factor in how far they go. So the above verification is for reference only; please bet responsibly.