The 76ers’ road game against the Pistons on 11/4 (US Eastern) is done. My pre-match prediction was the 76ers on the moneyline with an under 218 fallback. The 76ers won 112-106, so the moneyline landed and +2 covered; the total of 106 plus 112 was exactly 218, so the fallback pushed, neither a hit nor a miss. (For the previous round, see the previous verification.) Numbers here come from the NBA official box score; absences are checked against the injury information I compiled before the game.
| Game (away @ home) | Pre-match pick | Pre-match line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers @ Pistons | 76ers moneyline (2.14); fallback under 218 | Pistons -2, total 218 | 76ers 112-106 | ✅ 76ers moneyline landed, +2 covered (won by 6); under 218 fallback pushed (total exactly 218) |
The pre-match line is a Pinnacle snapshot taken on the afternoon of 11/4. Records now: 76ers 8-1, Pistons 6-2.
76ers 112-106 Pistons: The Paint Call Was Right, and the Fallback Pushed
How it went: Philadelphia opened up 29-21 after one quarter, led 56-42 at half, led 91-75 after three and by as many as 18; Detroit’s biggest lead was 6, and after cutting it to 6 with a 31-21 fourth quarter they got no closer. The lead changed hands 5 times.
Injuries and starters: the 76ers’ starting five of LeBron, Embiid, Brown, Maxey and Edgecombe all played, each for 33 to 37 minutes, with nobody rested, so my biggest premise before the game, “full strength”, held; the Pistons’ absences, Duren and Isaiah Joe, matched what I had beforehand, and neither appears on the roster sheet.
Right: Embiid against Collins/Reed. Embiid had 26 points and 15 rebounds and got to the line 10 times, while Reed fouled out with 6; offensive rebounds were 9 to 4 and second-chance points 12 to 5, so the 76ers did take advantage of Duren’s absence to do a lot of damage in the Pistons’ paint.
Right: “Detroit rely too much on Cunningham.” Cunningham had 26 points and 11 assists, but shot 9/22, 1/9 from three with 4 turnovers, which shows how much pressure the 76ers’ defence put on him, and his key three late was blocked by Brown. Detroit only just held the margin together thanks to Robinson’s red-hot shooting from outside (7/11 from three) for 27 points.
Right: the 76ers “score from many places.” Brown 30, Embiid 26, Maxey 19, LeBron 13 and Edgecombe 11: all five played and all reached double figures.
Wrong: “Simons in good form off the bench.” Simons was limited by foul trouble to 9:42 and 0 points (0/1), which left the 76ers’ bench with just 13 points for the game, even a little below Detroit’s 18.
Half right: a defensive game and the under 218 fallback. The read that the two teams rank first and second in the league in defensive efficiency was right (after the game, NBA official numbers: Pistons 103.0, first; 76ers 105.1, second), but both teams went past their own average points allowed in this game (Pistons 100.3, 76ers 105.1): 98 points in the first half and 120 in the second; the total was exactly 218, so the over/under pushed, and the fallback is neither a hit nor a miss. The second half played faster than the “defensive game” I expected.
Right: 76ers +2 covered. Winning by 6 covers it, but the -2 line before the game, with the market at 54.6% for Detroit after removing the margin, means the market was on the wrong side this time.
| 76ers | Pistons | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarters | 29-27-35-21 | 21-21-33-31 |
| FG | 39/86 (45.3%) | 38/83 (45.8%) |
| 3PT | 9/24 (37.5%) | 12/34 (35.3%) |
| FT | 25/28 | 18/23 |
| Rebounds (offensive) | 52 (9) | 49 (4) |
| Turnovers | 12 | 12 |
| Fast-break points | 15 | 22 |
| Points in the paint | 44 | 46 |
| Second-chance points | 12 | 5 |
| Bench points | 13 | 18 |
Summary: The Game Went Close to Expectations, and Detroit Again Showed No Second Ball Handler
The game went about as expected: without Duren, Detroit lacked the interior attacking and rim protection, with Reed shooting just 4 for 14 and fouling out. Detroit did score more in the paint, but that came from the 76ers choosing to trap Cunningham heavily after screens, forcing him to give the ball up and leaving cutters open, along with fast breaks. And the 76ers’ plan of squeezing Cunningham did work well; although Robinson hit 7 of 11 from three for 27 points, several of those were heavily contested shots that had already been pressured into place, and it was simply unlucky that they went in, so overall the defensive plan still counts as a success. And Detroit exposed once more the problem we’ve mentioned many times, the lack of a second ball handler: in the key moments nobody could share the ball-handling load with Cunningham, who was forced into some difficult contested shots, and that is the root cause of his key three being blocked.
These verifications are for reference only; please bet responsibly.