Last round I picked Rockets vs Mavericks and Knicks vs 76ers; both moneyline picks missed and both fallbacks landed (the verification is up). Today’s game is 76ers vs Pistons: both teams have started well, Philadelphia 7-1 and Detroit 6-1, and this is their second meeting. On 10/25 the Pistons won by 13 in Philadelphia, but that night the 76ers were without Embiid and Edgecombe; this time the 76ers arrive in Detroit at full strength, and yet the line is Pistons -2, so the market is still backing Detroit, only now it’s the Pistons who are missing Duren and Isaiah Joe. I’ll look at it through recent form, injuries, rest and travel, home/road, what the market is saying, depth, specific tactical weaknesses and matchups.
76ers @ Pistons: Can a Duren-less Detroit Stop a Healthy Embiid?
Tip-off: 11/5 (Thu) 08:00 Taiwan time / 11/4 (Wed) 19:00 US Eastern, Little Caesars Arena. Lines (taken the afternoon of 11/4, Pinnacle): Pistons -2 (1.91) / 76ers +2 (1.98); moneyline Pistons 1.78, 76ers 2.14; total 218 (over 1.94 / under 1.93); with the margin removed, about 54.6% Pistons and 45.4% 76ers.
Recent form: the 76ers are 7-1 and have won their last 3 (Knicks, Hornets, Bulls), averaging 110.9 scored and 105.1 allowed for a +5.9 margin; the Pistons are 6-1 and have won their last 3 (Hornets, Nets, Hornets), averaging 111.9 scored and 100.3 allowed, a +11.6 margin, holding opponents under 95 in four of seven games, so Detroit’s numbers look better. But neither schedule is strong: the Hornets account for three of the six most recent games across the two teams, and the Bulls and Nets aren’t playoff-bound either, so treat the numbers with caution.
Injuries: Detroit are without Duren (right hamstring strain, to be re-evaluated in two weeks) and Isaiah Joe (hip) is also ruled out; Philadelphia are missing Barlow and Hukporti is out for the season, but neither is a main rotation player, and LeBron, Embiid, Brown, Maxey and Edgecombe aren’t flagged. Detroit’s frontcourt is the biggest question mark: with Duren out, the players guarding Embiid will be Collins and Reed. ⚠️ This is the pre-game list (from ESPN); defer to the official injury report.
Rest and travel: both teams played on 11/2 and rested on 11/3, so each has one day off and neither is on a back-to-back, and the flight from Philadelphia to Detroit is short, so fatigue isn’t a variable here. (LeBron and Embiid didn’t appear in the box score against Charlotte on 10/31, but that was the day after a back-to-back, which isn’t the case now.)
Home/road: the 76ers are 3-0 on the road and 4-1 at home; the Pistons are 2-0 at home and 4-1 on the road. Neither team has a clear home/road split, and Detroit’s home sample is just two games (Celtics, Hornets), so don’t read too much into home court.
What the market is saying: Pistons -2, with books ranging from -1.5 to -2.5, which says the market thinks Detroit is slightly better, but only a little more than home court is worth, effectively “two similar teams, home court to the Pistons”. The total of 218 is a touch above both the 76ers’ average game total (216.0) and the Pistons’ (212.1); their 10/25 meeting totalled 199.
Depth: with the starting five of LeBron, Embiid, Brown, Maxey and Edgecombe healthy, the 76ers’ bench leans on Simons (20, 21 and 19 points in his last four appearances), plus Caldwell-Pope, Wade and Bona, so reserve scoring swings; the Pistons’ bench is mostly Reed, Green, Holland II and Huerter, and without Duren the big-man rotation is down to Collins, Reed and Jones, with everyone else a guard or wing. Both depth charts have a hole: Philadelphia’s is backup bigs, Detroit’s is bigs altogether.
Specific tactical weaknesses: at 7-1 the 76ers are tied for the league’s best record, and at full strength there’s no obvious short-board; if I have to name one, it’s that they only really trust about 8 players in the rotation, which is fine in the short term but will bring fatigue and injury problems over a season, though it matters little for a single game. Detroit’s weakness is very clear: rim protection and rebounding without Duren. Their only loss, on 10/27 against the Knicks, saw Towns pull down 20 rebounds (with 27 points), and against another elite big in Embiid I expect the same trouble.
Matchups and key players: most important is Embiid against Collins/Reed, the Duren-less Detroit frontcourt; next, each team’s scoring and creating hub, Maxey (29.1 points a game) against Cunningham (23.7 points and 7.1 assists); and then LeBron and Brown against Detroit’s perimeter defenders (Robinson, Thompson).
Verdict: 76ers moneyline (odds 2.14; +2 on the spread is the same direction). I expect a defensive game: the two teams currently rank first and second in the league in defensive efficiency, both elite defences (Detroit allow 100.3 points a game and Philadelphia 105.1). But on personnel, I expect Detroit’s lack of Duren to be exposed just as it was against the Knicks, and as long as Embiid is healthy he has the edge against Collins or Reed. On offence, Detroit lean too heavily on Cunningham; by comparison Philadelphia score from many places, with Brown and Maxey both averaging over 20 in the backcourt, Embiid still clearly not at full tilt yet and scoring 18.5, and a hot Simons on the bench, so even a defensive team like Detroit may not be able to handle all of that. If the 76ers can trap or switch to make Cunningham give the ball up, Detroit’s shortage of other ball handlers will show. Fallback: under 218 (1.93): both teams are defence-first and both average totals below the line, so I’ll take the under; but Philadelphia did hit 233 on 11/2, and single-game totals for the two teams this season range from 186 to 243, so mind the volatility. The biggest variable is the official injury report: if Embiid’s or Duren’s status differs from what’s written above, reassess.
The Full-Strength Premise: This Pick Rests on Two Small Samples
Last time it was a full-strength Pistons against a 76ers side missing two starters; this time it’s reversed, with a full-strength 76ers facing a Pistons team without its frontcourt anchor. If it were anyone else missing it might not matter so much, but it’s Duren, which leaves Detroit exposed against top-level centres, and their only loss so far came when Towns dominated the glass. And although Embiid has been unreliable in recent seasons because of injuries, when healthy he’s still an elite centre, and with LeBron beside him looking much the same this season, he can take a lot of the interior load off him.
But I should admit the basis of this call is thin: Embiid has already missed two box scores this season (10/25 and 10/31, both the day after a back-to-back, with no reason given by the league or ESPN); on Detroit’s side, the 10/25 score can’t be used directly because the 76ers were short that night, and the Duren-less Pistons have only played five of their seven games in this state, also a very small sample. If the official injury report differs from this piece, go with the report. These predictions are for reference only; please bet responsibly.