Opening: One Side Stumbled Through, the Other Outclassed France
Argentina really did stumble their way into the final to defend their crown? Honestly, watching their first few knockout matches, I didn’t believe they could make it this far. But in the end, they did — reaching the final by the skin of their teeth on the back of two genuinely miraculous comebacks.
Spain, meanwhile, had their nervy moments against Portugal and Belgium, snatching the winner only in the final few minutes each time. But against France — a side that had at one point been the outright title favorite — they showed superb form instead. They locked down possession through their midfield superiority, choking off the supply to France’s star-studded front line at the source, and delivered what can only be called a comprehensive win.
Spain: Rodri Back to His Peak, Yamal Warping the Whole Pitch
A big part of how Spain got here comes down to two men — former Ballon d’Or winner Rodri and the wonderkid Lamine Yamal.
Rodri seems to have returned to his peak over these matches; his outstanding defensive positioning, anticipation and coverage make life miserable for every opposing midfielder trying to play out against Spain, and combined with Spain’s top-tier tempo control and possession game, they’ve strangled other teams’ attacks completely, leaving them unable to function. As for Yamal, though his stat line reads a modest 1 goal and 0 assists, in reality, as the attacking focal point, he draws huge amounts of defensive manpower and attention out wide, piling pressure on the opposing defense and opening up better penetration and chances for his teammates.
Beyond those two, Marc Cucurella has also been excellent so far — handling his overlapping runs well, delivering two beautiful assists, and repeatedly making superb interceptions in defense, doing a great job limiting Mbappé last time out. As for the X-factor mentioned in the previous piece, Nico Williams, from the way he’s being rotated, he may not be back to 100% and can’t play a full 90 minutes — but he could come on as a decisive card in the closing stages. And at that point, Spain’s both-wings-firing tactic meets the Argentina side that leans on the wings least of anyone this tournament — what sparks will fly?
Argentina: The Winger Problem, and Messi’s Second Form
Now, let’s talk about the defending champions, Argentina. Argentina’s problem this tournament was covered in the previous piece — they don’t have a good winger.
That has left them relying on Messi to attempt a lot of central penetration, plus the occasional wide contribution from the little spider Julián Álvarez and long-range shots from Enzo Fernández. But since the knockouts began, teams have targeted this approach: everyone knows you want to go through the middle, so they pack numbers centrally, show no respect at all for your wingers, and then score on the counter. At that point, though, Argentina roll out their second form — shifting Messi to the right to do a winger’s job, then bringing on Lautaro Martínez, or even Lopez, for relentless crossing and aerial bombardment down the flank. Against both Egypt and England, it was this Messi-assist-plus-header-barrage combination that turned the games around.
In midfield, Argentina inherit the classic South American style: they win the ball back through a barrage of borderline — or outright — cynical fouls and physical duels, running what you might call a “meat-grinder” strategy. And you have to admit, primitive as it is, it’s effective — especially against midfield maestros like Spain’s Rodri and company, where trying to out-technique them is hopeless, but out-muscling and out-battling them is another matter entirely.
That said, over these last few matches Argentina have also exposed just how fragile their back line is when hit on the counter. Facing Yamal — one of the very best right-wingers in the world today, with elite dribbling — how they avoid getting carved open in transition will be a major question. And with the cautionary tales of Egypt and England, I doubt anyone will sit back against Argentina anymore — the only way to win is to trade blows with them.
Betting Advice: Paper Points to Spain, but I’m Trusting the King One More Time
On the odds, the market leans toward Spain. And it’s true — on paper Spain are more complete, have the deeper bench, have conceded just one goal all tournament, and are in better form. But Argentina’s trump card is that they have Messi, the man you can always believe in, always capable of conjuring a miracle.
For this match, even though the odds and the squads may both favor Spain a little, I’ve decided to believe in Messi one more time! Let’s witness a World Cup title defense for the ages — come on, your majesty!
Please bet responsibly.