All six games of the pre-match predictions for Premier League matchweek 7 are now done: 4 hits, 1 partial and 1 miss. You can see this season’s Premier League prediction problem in this round alone — United and Chelsea are both in a strange state this year, with confusing form and chemistry: sometimes they play well, but against opponents worth far less than themselves they can also look dreadful. That makes both hard to call on the result, and their mysterious attacks make the other options harder too. Spurs show something similar: this round they won their first league game of the season with two goals of very low expected value, even though on the numbers the game was close to even. Meanwhile City and Arsenal, who are easier to predict, usually come with unattractive prices, and Liverpool seems to be the only side that is both fairly predictable and offers decent odds, though they’ve only stabilised recently and could hit turbulence at any time. All I can say is that the line “unpredictability is the charm of football” never gets old.
6 Predictions: 4 Hits, 1 Partial, 1 Miss
(For the pre-match calls, scores and result of each, see the results table above.)
The Four Hits: Right Results, but Very Different Quality
Manchester City vs Ipswich (3-2). I expected the result, but the game was more twisty than I thought: City’s xG was about 3.2–3.5 against Ipswich’s 1.4–1.7, with 19 shots to 8 and 70% possession, and although City were on top throughout, the final margin was just a single goal at 3-2. Foden, the once-golden boy, opened the scoring in the 19th minute, his first goal of the season. But Ipswich’s Maeda equalised two minutes later, Haaland scored in the 34th and 69th minutes, and Flemming pulled one back from the penalty spot in the 90th. It also exposes some of City’s defensive problems this season: strong going forward, but after conceding four to PSG and two to Ipswich, that may be a warning sign. The over 2.5 goals fallback (five goals) also landed, and the 1.37 on the over was better value than the win in this one.
Brentford vs Liverpool (1-2). The direction was right, but I really didn’t expect how this one went, and Liverpool were somewhat helped by the opposition’s red cards. Brentford scored first through Lewis-Potter in the 44th minute, but Yarmoliuk was sent off in first-half stoppage time (45+8’) for an unwise foul, leaving Brentford with ten men for the second half; Liverpool equalised in the 62nd when Muñoz beat his man with a lovely back-heel turn on the right and finished into the far corner, and Isak (back from injury) scored the winner in the 70th from a Barcola assist; then Janelt was sent off at 90+2’, so Brentford had two reds in all. Worth noting is Barcola’s form: he put a one-on-one chip wide in the first half that he should have scored, and in the second half hit the bar, so the finishing problem at the highest level is still there. The numbers here have limited value because Brentford were a man down for most of the game, but my pre-match claim that Iraola has Liverpool well polished looks right; the odds actually favoured Brentford, but trusting Iraola I went with Liverpool without hesitation, and it proves they are in much better shape than at the start of the season.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal (0-1). A hit, and the game was very “Arsenal”, even landing the under 2.5 fallback: Arsenal had nearly 75% possession but only scored in the 80th minute through substitute Madueke, who cut inside and whose shot deflected off Cunha, the only shot on target they had all game; shots were 9 to 14 (Forest actually had more) and xG about 1.07 to 0.75. It completely bears out what I said before the game, that Arsenal’s attack isn’t at its best but they can win through defence and a bit of finishing; though that style may be a problem against stronger attacking sides in the Champions League knockouts or against City in the league. The under 2.5 fallback also landed, and Arsenal’s strong-defence, weak-attack profile suits the under for the foreseeable future, unless they meet one of the really poor defences.
Spurs vs Coventry (3-1). Spurs finally got their first league win of the season, and both the main call and the both-teams-scoring fallback landed, though the numbers were closer to even than the score: xG about 0.87 for Spurs and 0.82 for Coventry, shots 16 to 12, possession 65% to 35%, and Coventry had three of the four highest-xG shots in the game; but converting low-xG chances is exactly what high-priced players are for. Take Maddison’s long-range shot in the 14th minute: it was a hard one, but he scored it. Rudoni equalised in the 49th, then Marmoush put Spurs back in front in the 58th, and Davies sealed it in stoppage time (90+6’); the last two goals had very low expected values. In fact all three Spurs goals today were from outside the box or its edge, but when they start being able to score that kind of goal, it does suggest their attack is improving. The “right time, right place, right opponent” line I used before the game wasn’t wrong, but we shouldn’t be too comfortable: Spurs’ attacking problems haven’t been completely solved by this win, and who is going to score inside the box when the long shots stop going in is the question to watch next.
The Partial: Leeds Win Missed, but the “Under” Fallback Landed
Leeds vs Manchester United (1-1). Before the game we picked Leeds to win at home with under 2.5 goals as the fallback; it finished 1-1, so Leeds didn’t win but didn’t lose either. I actually wanted to predict Leeds not to lose, but it looks like I still underrated United a bit. With two goals in total, the under landed, so this is a partial. The game itself was really Leeds’: xG about 1.44 to 0.91 and 61% possession, though United were more dangerous in the first half (xG about 0.66 to 0.25), with Mbeumo scoring first in the 35th minute; in the second half Calvert-Lewin scored after a corner in the 51st to level, and then Leeds missed several chances (including a late Stach effort that Lammens saved), so the process was closer to my pre-match read than the result, but Leeds didn’t turn their chances into goals. This was also a game where the odds flipped (United were favoured at the opening, the market slightly favoured Leeds before the game): Leeds’ win probability was 40% after removing the margin and the draw 26%, which is not low.
The Miss: Everton Not to Lose Missed, and Chelsea Got a First Away Win and a First Clean Sheet in 23 Games
Everton vs Chelsea (0-2). This was the only miss of the round. The core reasoning before the game was that Chelsea’s back line is a mess, so the game would be end-to-end and Everton’s physicality would grind out a draw. Instead Chelsea won without Reece James and kept their first clean sheet in 23 Premier League games; the defence was better than I expected, which is the main reason I got it wrong, and congratulations to Alonso on his first Premier League away win in charge. The numbers show it wasn’t luck: 18 shots to 6, xG about 1.5 to 0.45, and Everton’s six shots were their fewest in a league game since last December. Neto scored 43 seconds into the second half from a deflected Hato cross and added a second late on, and of course the both-teams-scoring fallback didn’t land either. From this game Chelsea’s defence does appear to be improving, but during the match Branthwaite collided with Chelsea goalkeeper Martínez and he was stretchered off, and whether that affects their defence going forward is worth watching.
Summary: Unpredictable United and Chelsea, and Red Cards You Can Never Predict
As I said at the start, United, Chelsea and Spurs are all hard to call this season, and once red cards come into it there are even more variables. I think the most reliable team in the league right now is City, though their recent defensive instability could be a problem. Last season’s champions Arsenal are not scoring as expected, and the set pieces they were so proud of last season haven’t been very impressive either. Liverpool, on the other hand, are becoming steadier and more of a big-club side under Iraola, and are right now the best choice when you weigh up the odds and stability, though their biggest signing Barcola still lacks a cutting edge in the big games, which may still be a problem against strong opposition.
When predicting, the hardest thing is that some teams’ fixtures are spread over too long a stretch, which makes their form very hard to read. City, Arsenal and Liverpool can be followed through the Champions League, but whether the attack and defence problems of teams like Chelsea and Spurs have been fixed often can’t be known until they actually play. So Chelsea’s solid defence this time was hard to foresee before the game, and whether it was a one-off is also hard to tell, which is where prediction is difficult at the moment. Other non-big clubs are even harder to call: I’ve studied them less, and when their games are far apart it’s hard to grasp their state. So as fans who can’t possibly get first-hand information, all I can say is: bet responsibly, and never chase losses.