There are no meetings between big clubs this round, so there are six games in all. The prediction and verification for the previous round are both live, and the midweek Champions League matchday 4 verification is worth a look too. The main talking points are whether Manchester City can stop the slide after two straight Premier League defeats, and whether Manchester United, having ended a nine-game winless run across all competitions in Europe, can climb out of the danger zone. Beyond that, whether a Spurs side on three straight wins has really bedded in is another one to watch. As usual I’ll use recent form, injuries, fixture congestion, home/away splits, head-to-head history and market attitude to analyse and predict the six games. The odds here are averages of 47–48 bookmakers taken in the early hours of 7 November (Taiwan time); the injury information comes from 5–6 November previews and Friday press conferences, and anything marked “⚠️” is contradictory between sources or still a late call, so go by the official starting line-ups.
Leeds vs Spurs: Three Straight Wins Haven’t Been Convincing, but Leeds’ Attack Is Thinner
Kick-off: 20:30 Taiwan time on Saturday 7 Nov / 12:30 local, Elland Road. Odds (taken early 7 Nov, 48-bookmaker average): Leeds 2.76 / draw 3.36 / Spurs 2.54 (no-vig 34% / 28% / 37%); over 2.5 goals 1.94 / under 2.5 goals 1.86 (26 bookmakers).
Recent form: Spurs have won three and drawn one of their last five and won their last three (3-1 Coventry, 2-0 at Chelsea, 2-0 Crystal Palace); Leeds have no wins, three draws and two defeats from their last five, and have scored only 9 in nine games.
Injuries: Leeds’ top scorer Calvert-Lewin missed training this week with a foot problem, with Farke “carefully optimistic”, so it’s still a late call; Mateo Joseph is out, and Farke called Okafor and Stach “major doubts”. For Spurs, Odobert, Mudryk and Simons are out and Maddison is expected back in the squad; sources differ on whether Bentancur has finished his three-match ban ⚠️.
Fixture congestion: Spurs have no European football and a full week of preparation; Leeds are in the same position, so rest is equal.
Home/away form: Leeds are 1 win, 3 draws, 0 defeats at home (6 for, 3 against), still unbeaten there; Spurs are 1 win, 2 draws, 1 defeat away (3 for, 4 against), and their away attack is weak.
Market attitude: The market sees it as nearly a coin flip, with the away side’s 37% even slightly higher than the home side’s, and the 2.5-goal line almost evenly split.
Verdict: Spurs started the season badly and were hovering near the relegation zone, but have put together a three-game winning run lately, including a win over Chelsea, though their attack is still nowhere near the top level. Of those wins, one came off an unreliable long-range shot and another from Tel, a player famous for his inconsistency, so the case is a little less convincing. The good news is that Leeds’ form is poor too and their attacking firepower is feeble, so I like a recovering Spurs to win this one by a small margin. As a fallback, given both teams’ unreliable attacks, I’ll go under 2.5 goals.
Arsenal vs Hull: The Biggest Odds Gap of the Round, and the Type of Game Arsenal Do Best
Kick-off: 23:00 Taiwan time on Saturday 7 Nov / 15:00 local, Emirates. Odds (taken early 7 Nov, 48-bookmaker average): Arsenal 1.15 / draw 7.88 / Hull 17.87 (no-vig 83% / 12% / 5%); the main total line is 3.5 (over 2.31 / under 1.59, 15 bookmakers), and only 3 bookmakers price 2.5 (over 1.52 / under 2.51).
Recent form: Arsenal have won eight of nine and four of their last five, won 1-0 at Liverpool last Sunday and then 2-1 at Slavia in Europe on Wednesday; Hull have no wins, three draws and two defeats from their last five (2-2 Everton, 0-1 Fulham, 1-1 Brentford, 2-2 Ipswich, 1-2 Newcastle).
Injuries: Saka is out until after the international break and Saliba could return for his first minutes, though most likely only from the bench; Konsa was taken off in Prague with a sore knee, with one report saying it isn’t serious, and Calafiori is expected back ⚠️. Hull have six players expected to miss out, and Crooks is suspended.
Fixture congestion: Arsenal played away in Europe on Wednesday and have only three days’ rest; Hull have no European football.
Home/away form: Arsenal have won all four at home (9 for, 2 against); Hull are 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats away (4 for, 5 against).
Market attitude: 1.15 is the lowest price of the round, so the straight win has almost no betting value; the main total line is pushed out to 3.5, a clear sign the market doesn’t expect a big scoreline.
Verdict: This is the game with the biggest odds gap. Arsenal lead the league, have won four of their last five and are in good form, and their only defeat this season came against Brighton, who play high-pressing, fast football. Hull’s style leans defensive and values tempo, but that kind of game is exactly what Arsenal are best at, and with Arsenal at home it’s hard to see Hull toppling them that way. As a fallback, given both teams’ defensive styles and Arsenal’s recent low goal totals, I’ll mainly consider under 2.5 goals.
Forest vs Man City: City on Two Straight Defeats Meet the League’s Lowest Scorers
Kick-off: 01:30 Taiwan time on Sunday 8 Nov / 17:30 local on 7 Nov, City Ground. Odds (taken early 7 Nov, 48-bookmaker average): Forest 4.48 / draw 3.96 / City 1.73 (no-vig 21% / 24% / 55%); over 2.5 goals 1.62 / under 2.5 goals 2.26 (18 bookmakers).
Recent form: City have won three and lost two of their last five, with back-to-back Premier League defeats to Villa (1-2) and Brighton (0-1), then won 3-2 at Leipzig in Europe; Forest have no wins, one draw and four defeats from their last five, and have scored only 6 in nine games.
Injuries: City are missing only Semenyo, and their other main players are available; for Forest, Savona is out long term, and sources contradict each other on Dominguez and Igor Jesus ⚠️.
Fixture congestion: City played away at Leipzig in Europe on Wednesday and have three days’ rest; Forest have no European football.
Home/away form: Forest are 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats at home and haven’t scored in any of their four home games (0 for, 3 against), the most striking number of the round; City are 3 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat away (9 for, 3 against).
Market attitude: The market sees City as 55% favourites and Forest at 21%; the 2.5-goal line leans to the over.
Verdict: City are on two straight Premier League defeats and their back line has been awful lately, conceding again and again, but this game’s opponents are Forest, second from bottom and the league’s lowest scorers with just 6 goals in nine games, so given the gap in quality and scoring ability I’ll still back City in this one. As a fallback, I’ll go for both teams to score.
Sunderland vs Chelsea: A Chelsea Hit by Injuries Travel to a Bottom Side With an Even Worse Back Line
Kick-off: 22:00 Taiwan time on Sunday 8 Nov / 14:00 local, Stadium of Light. Odds (taken early 7 Nov, 48-bookmaker average): Sunderland 3.68 / draw 3.62 / Chelsea 1.97 (no-vig 26% / 26% / 48%); over 2.5 goals 1.79 / under 2.5 goals 2.00 (24 bookmakers).
Recent form: Chelsea have won three and lost two of their last five and beat Manchester United 2-0 last Saturday, though they have conceded 15 in nine; Sunderland have scored only 7 in nine games, are bottom on 5 points and have one draw and four defeats from their last five (3-5 City, 0-2 Brighton, 0-2 Bournemouth, 0-0 Leeds, 1-3 Coventry).
Injuries: Chelsea are without João Pedro, Reece James, Lacroix and Gittens, and Hato isn’t fit yet; Alonso described Caicedo’s issue as discomfort rather than a calf injury and he’ll be checked on the day, while goalkeeper Martínez is back in training and in contention to return to the side, but Alonso said he’ll have a late fitness test and the decision comes on matchday ⚠️. Sunderland are without Ballard, Diarra and Mundle, and Alderete is suspended.
Fixture congestion: Chelsea have no European football and a full week of preparation; Sunderland are the same.
Home/away form: Sunderland are 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats at home and have scored just once in four games (1 for, 4 against); Chelsea are 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats away (6 for, 7 against), a step down from their home form (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat).
Market attitude: Chelsea at 48% aren’t big favourites, with the draw and Sunderland each on 26%, so the market doesn’t see this as an easy game.
Verdict: Chelsea are currently hit by a wave of injuries and their form is poor, and the goals-against problem hasn’t improved since Martínez went down; with this an away game, it’s likely to be a hard fight. But Sunderland are bottom this season and their back line, which has conceded 17, is even worse than Chelsea’s, so I like Chelsea to win this game.
Palace vs Liverpool: Defeats Caused by Rotation Aren’t Poor Form, and Palace’s Attack Is the Real Problem
Kick-off: 22:00 Taiwan time on Sunday 8 Nov / 14:00 local, Selhurst Park. Odds (taken early 7 Nov, 48-bookmaker average): Palace 5.44 / draw 4.38 / Liverpool 1.55 (no-vig 17% / 22% / 61%); the main total line is 3.5 (over 2.30 / under 1.60, 15 bookmakers), and only 4 bookmakers price 2.5 (over 1.56 / under 2.38).
Recent form: Liverpool have won three and lost two of their last five, losing back-to-back to Arsenal (0-1 in the league) and Fenerbahçe (2-3 in Europe, with 22 shots and 12 corners), and have scored only 11 in nine league games; Palace have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, have failed to score in their last three league games (0-5 Brighton, 0-2 Newcastle, 0-2 Spurs) and have conceded 21 in nine, the most in the league.
Injuries: Palace striker Mateta is suspended after a red card, Sarr, Riad and Tomiyasu are out, and Timber and Strand Larsen are back but still a late call ⚠️. Liverpool are without Ekitike, Leoni, Bradley and Frimpong, and Iraola said at his press conference the only doubt is Gravenberch (heel pain, assessed day by day) ⚠️; the predicted front three is Isak, Wirtz and Gakpo, though previews differ slightly.
Fixture congestion: Liverpool played away at Fenerbahçe on Wednesday (a long trip to Turkey) and have only four days’ rest, coming off a defeat; Palace have no European football.
Home/away form: Liverpool are 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats away (7 for, 3 against) and only 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats at home; Palace are 1 win, 0 draws, 3 defeats at home (6 for, 10 against).
Market attitude: At 61%, Liverpool are the most-favoured away side of the round; the main total line is pushed out to 3.5, so the market doesn’t expect a big scoreline from Liverpool.
Verdict: Liverpool lost back-to-back games to Arsenal and Fenerbahçe, but the Arsenal game was actually not a bad performance, and the Fenerbahçe defeat was down to heavy rotation, so the team’s overall condition is not bad. Palace, on the other hand, have lost three straight in the Premier League without scoring, including a 0-5 heavy defeat, and their results are dismal, with big trouble in the attacking third. So overall I like Liverpool, and as a fallback I like over 2.5 goals.
Man United vs Villa: A United Side With Their Confidence Up, but the One I Like Is Villa
Kick-off: 00:30 Taiwan time on Monday 9 Nov / 16:30 local on 8 Nov, Old Trafford. Odds (taken early 7 Nov, 47-bookmaker average): United 2.17 / draw 3.68 / Villa 3.10 (no-vig 44% / 26% / 31%); over 2.5 goals 1.61 / under 2.5 goals 2.28 (13 bookmakers).
Recent form: United have won only one of nine, with no wins, three draws and two defeats from their last five and no goals in two of their last three league games (0-3 Bournemouth, 0-2 Chelsea), but came from 0-2 down to beat Roma 3-2 in Europe on Tuesday; Villa have won three and drawn two of their last five, drew 1-1 with Fulham in their last league game and lost 0-3 to Barcelona in Europe on Tuesday.
Injuries: United’s Lisandro Martínez is suspended after a red card, and Ugarte, Baleba (Carrick said out for a number of weeks), Sesko and Shaw are out; Dorgu has done only a very little training, and Rashford (hip) has been out of the squad for four straight games, with his return still uncertain ⚠️. Villa are without Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka, Cash is suspended (one report says he needs assessing on the day) ⚠️, and rotation is expected after the European defeat.
Fixture congestion: United played in Europe on Tuesday and have five days’ rest; Villa also played away at Barcelona on Tuesday, so rest is equal.
Home/away form: United are 1 win, 1 draw, 2 defeats at home (6 for, 7 against); Villa are 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat away (4 for, 6 against), which is not a bad away record.
Market attitude: The market gives United a small home edge (44%), with Villa on 31% and the draw 26%; the 2.5-goal line leans to the over.
Verdict: United beat Roma from behind in Europe to finally end a nine-game winless run across all competitions and their confidence is up, but that game was actually not pretty to watch, won through a penalty and an opponent’s mistakes, and their attacking problems haven’t eased much. Villa, though just beaten by Barcelona, have always produced eye-catching performances and content this season when they have no injuries. So I like Villa in this game, with under 2.5 goals as the fallback.
The Limits of This Round’s Method: Line-Ups and Fitness Are the Hardest Things to Pin Down Before a Game
The biggest worry about this round’s predictions is the same as it was in the Champions League: as the schedule goes on, teams start running into injuries and key players who have to be rested. Some injury lists aren’t updated in real time, and it’s hard to know before a game which players might be rested, so this uncertainty over the starting line-up is the biggest risk to any prediction. Then there’s fitness: Barcelona’s head coach has publicly said before that too many games are making it hard for players to cope physically, and in recent games some players have indeed started to drop off from playing continuously. At that point, the lower-table teams who don’t have to play on several fronts have more of an advantage, which is also something to weigh, so betting carries risk, please bet responsibly.