Champions League matchday 3 features eight of the clubs I track. Last round’s predictions and verification are both up: seven games produced 38 goals, 5.4 per game, and even a three-goal lead wasn’t safe. This round has plenty of good games, and the biggest is the meeting of the two most potent attacks right now, PSG against Barcelona. Both are in great attacking form — one with the best midfield in Europe for the past two years, the other producing astonishing firepower from a front line that rotates without a recognised striker — so I expect a great game. Bayern vs Arsenal is another fine pairing, last season’s Bundesliga and Premier League champions, but the big variable is Olise, who will miss it through suspension after his red card: without a winger who has been in superb form and full of creativity this season, how will Bayern tear Arsenal’s defence apart? And can Arsenal, strong at the back but weak in attack this season, break down Bayern’s goal?
Manchester City vs AEK Athens: A One-Sided 1.11, With Rotation the Real Storyline
Kick-off: 10/21 (Wed) 03:00 Taiwan time / 10/20 20:00 UK local, Etihad. Odds (fetched 10/20, average of 39 bookmakers): City 1.11 / draw 10.04 / AEK 21.22.
Form: City beat Porto 2-0 in their first Champions League game and lost 4-2 to PSG last round, though PSG are strong in Europe anyway. City have also won all seven Premier League games this season, beating Ipswich 3-2 last time out with a Haaland brace (Premier League matchweek 7 verification), and the attack is in good shape. They’ve been conceding often lately, but against opposition this far below them, winning shouldn’t be a problem; AEK beat LASK 1-0 and lost 3-1 to Shakhtar, one win and one defeat from two games.
Injuries: Previews all say City have no major injury concerns; Doku is still being managed after his calf problem in August, but he has been playing well lately and, though he may not last the full game, he’s fine to play. No clear injury news for AEK was found.
Schedule: Ipswich on Saturday → this game → Villa away on Saturday, the third of four games in ten days, so rotation is likely.
Gap in class / what the odds say: 1.11 implies a win probability of about 90% (86% after removing the margin); the gap in class is big enough that rotation shouldn’t narrow it much. Over 2.5 goals has only three bookmakers quoting it (1.26), so treat it as indicative.
Verdict: The gap is huge and a 1.11 price says it all; add City’s usually very reliable way of dealing with weaker opposition and I’m firmly backing City to win. But the price isn’t attractive — even the over is only 1.26 — so there’s not much betting value, and my fallback is over 2.5 goals.
PSG vs Barcelona: The Two Most Potent Attacks in Europe, and Almost a Coin Flip on the Odds
Kick-off: 10/21 (Wed) 03:00 Taiwan time / 10/20 21:00 France local, Parc des Princes. Odds (fetched 10/20, average of 39 bookmakers): PSG 2.45 / draw 4.39 / Barcelona 2.39.
Form: PSG started the season slowly but have been winning across all competitions lately (6-1 Slovan and 4-2 Manchester City in Europe, then 3-1 away at Strasbourg last round in the league, where Ferran Torres leads the Ligue 1 scoring on four goals), and they are on a four-game winning run in Ligue 1 (14 points), second only on goal difference; Barcelona have won all nine La Liga games (5-2 at Betis last round, with Rodri heading in his first goal for the club in the 41st minute), and in Europe beat Feyenoord 5-1 and Galatasaray 4-1.
Injuries: For PSG, left-back Nuno Mendes is definitely out, and Vitinha and Kvaratskhelia are reportedly doubts; for Barcelona, Bardghji (knee) and Christensen (thigh) are out, Jules Koundé (ankle sprain) and Eric García (thigh, out for up to four weeks) will also definitely miss it, and Raphinha and de Jong have reportedly returned to full team training but haven’t been confirmed in the squad.
Schedule: PSG played at Strasbourg on Saturday, three days before this, so Luis Enrique’s rotation is a variable; Barcelona were at Betis on Saturday and also have three days’ rest.
What the odds say: Average 2.45 / 4.39 / 2.39, which after removing the margin is PSG 39%, draw 22%, Barcelona 40% — the market sees them as completely equal (a draw is only 22%, since both sides play attacking football); over 2.5 goals has only three bookmakers quoting it (1.19), so treat it as indicative.
Verdict: This is the most eagerly awaited game of the season so far: both teams are in red-hot form with fearsome firepower, and I expect a thrilling shootout. The 1.19 on over 2.5 goals shows the market also sees an attacking game, and I agree; and both back lines are missing a first-choice full-back (Jules Koundé and Nuno Mendes), which makes a goal-fest even likelier. On the result, the two front lines are in similar form and both face an opponent missing a first-choice full-back, so attacks down the flanks will decide it; but both teams’ wingers are world class — Yamal, Gordon, Doué and Kvaratskhelia all have top-level explosiveness — and it’s hard to say who has the edge. In midfield, PSG have the golden midfield that has dominated Europe for two years, but Barcelona have Rodri, the best defensive midfielder in the world right now. So if I have to pick, I’ll trust Rodri and Barcelona: a healthy Rodri is a dominant presence in midfield, and Barcelona brought him in precisely for this kind of high-level occasion, so I expect him to prove his worth here. The call is Barcelona to win, with over 2.5 goals as the fallback.
Liverpool vs Villarreal: Isak Is Back, But Szoboszlai Goes Down
Kick-off: 10/21 (Wed) 03:00 Taiwan time / 10/20 20:00 UK local, Anfield. Odds (fetched 10/20, average of 39 bookmakers): Liverpool 1.49 / draw 4.67 / Villarreal 5.89.
Form: Liverpool beat Atlético 2-1 and LASK 6-3 in Europe (Barcola hat-trick, though three goals conceded), and won 2-1 at Brentford in the league thanks to the opposition’s red cards (Isak back from injury and scoring the winner); Villarreal lost 3-2 at Dortmund and beat Napoli 3-1, scoring five in the two games.
Injuries: Szoboszlai went off after 32 minutes at Brentford (Nyoni replaced him), and according to previews he and Frimpong are both out with hamstring problems — Iraola called it “not a new issue” and said the club needs to be patient; Isak is back and scored, Gakpo is expected to be available, and Gravenberch’s domestic ban is over; Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni are long-term absentees. No clear injury news for Villarreal was found.
Schedule: Brentford away on Saturday → this game → Brighton on Sunday, three in a row.
What the odds say: Average 1.49 / 4.67 / 5.89, which after removing the margin makes Liverpool 64%; over 2.5 goals 1.45 and under 2.74 (only three bookmakers), so the market favours the over.
Verdict: I’m very positive about Liverpool lately. They’re still not at full strength and the chemistry isn’t fully there, but I think Iraola has pulled his resources together very well and they produce convincing performances whoever they face. So against a Villarreal side a little way below them, I think Liverpool winning is not in doubt. The biggest variable is Barcola’s form: he scored a hat-trick in Europe last round, but back in the Premier League he keeps missing the target at key moments, and he’s clearly not at 100%; if he can find his touch soon, Liverpool will be more stable. As for the fallback, given this season’s Champions League scoring average and the gap between the teams, I think over 2.5 goals is a reasonable choice.
Como vs Manchester United: Fàbregas’s First Champions League Home Game Against a United Winless in Five
Kick-off: 10/22 (Thu) 00:45 Taiwan time / 10/21 18:45 Italy local, Sinigaglia. Odds (fetched 10/20, average of 38 bookmakers): Como 2.26 / draw 3.69 / United 2.90.
Form: Como beat Leipzig 4-1 at home in their first European game and lost 3-2 away at Feyenoord (after which Fàbregas admitted that schedule and rotation were a problem); United beat Sabah 4-0 and lost 2-0 at Atlético (Yoro sent off), drew 1-1 at Leeds on Sunday in the league (Mbeumo scoring), are winless in five, and Carrick is under heavy pressure.
Injuries: No major injuries found for Como; United’s squad depends on the state of things after the trip to Leeds (Shaw, Mainoo, Mazraoui, Sesko and Dorgu are all variables, and sources list different names, so go by the official team news before the game).
Schedule: United played at Leeds on Sunday and have only three days’ rest; I couldn’t find Como’s league schedule.
What the odds say: Average 2.26 / 3.69 / 2.90, which after removing the margin is Como 42%, draw 26%, United 33% — the market sees the hosts as slight favourites; over 2.5 goals 1.60 and under 2.31, so the market favours the over.
Verdict: United are now winless in five, and although the draw at Leeds last round made my prediction wrong, it was only a draw, and with just one goal scored the attack still has serious problems. Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes still haven’t given enough threat or influence in attack this season. So I expect Como to win on the strength of Italian football’s discipline, but neither team’s firepower inspires much confidence right now, so although the market likes the over, my fallback is under 2.5 goals.
Bayern vs Arsenal: Olise Suspended, and Arsenal Come to Test the Allianz Arena
Kick-off: 10/22 (Thu) 03:00 Taiwan time / 10/21 21:00 Germany local, Allianz Arena. Odds (fetched 10/20, average of 38 bookmakers): Bayern 2.02 / draw 3.81 / Arsenal 3.32.
Form: Bayern beat Bodø/Glimt 5-0 and drew 3-3 at Viking in Europe (they led, were pegged back, and Olise was sent off), and thrashed Leipzig 6-1 in the Bundesliga last round (Díaz hat-trick, Olise also scoring) to go back top; Arsenal beat Napoli 1-0 and Lille 3-0 in Europe, are second in the Premier League on 15 points, and won 1-0 at Forest last Sunday through a deflected Madueke goal in the 80th minute, with only one shot on target and shots 9 to 14 (Premier League matchweek 7 verification), so the attack isn’t at its best.
Injuries: Bayern: Olise is suspended for one game after his red card (several reports agree, so he is definitely out); Musiala is out and Neuer’s availability isn’t yet confirmed. Arsenal: Zubimendi has an ankle injury (status to be confirmed), Hincapié and Saliba are expected back in December, and Tzolis is out.
Schedule: Bayern: Leipzig on Saturday → this game → Freiburg away on Sunday; Arsenal: Forest away on Sunday → this game → Everton on Saturday.
What the odds say: Average 2.02 / 3.81 / 3.32, which after removing the margin is Bayern 47%, draw 25%, Arsenal 28% — the market favours the home side; over 2.5 goals 1.59 and under 2.33, so the market favours the over.
Verdict: On the odds the market favours Bayern, and if Olise weren’t missing I’d back Bayern without hesitation just like the market, because Arsenal’s attack really has been poor this season and with the creative, ball-carrying Olise on the pitch Bayern would clearly have the edge going forward. But with him suspended the two sides come much closer: Bayern still have Kane, a supremely efficient scorer, but as we saw at the World Cup, without someone feeding him Kane can still help the team by dropping deep to get on the ball, though once he drops, is there someone to fill the gap and break through Arsenal’s defence? Having said all that about Bayern’s problems, Arsenal’s own attack is no better — only one shot on target against Forest last Sunday, and although they won, their attacking line has been sluggish all season. Overall… I personally still go with Bayern to win, but that’s purely because of home advantage; on squads and form I think it’s at most 50-50, with neither team clearly ahead. And likewise, considering both teams’ firepower and defensive ability, although the market favours the over, my fallback is under 2.5 goals.
Real Madrid vs Leipzig: A 1.24 Price, and a Rising New Face
Kick-off: 10/22 (Thu) 03:00 Taiwan time / 10/21 21:00 Spain local, Bernabéu. Odds (fetched 10/20, average of 38 bookmakers): Real Madrid 1.24 / draw 7.02 / Leipzig 9.64.
Form: Real Madrid beat Inter 2-1 and Roma 4-3 in Europe (from 1-3 down, with three corners in the last seven minutes), then beat Sevilla 4-1 in La Liga last round (Güler 30’, Mbappé 37’ and a 63’ penalty, Diomande 82’; xG about 2.24 to 0.75), and have 21 points after nine league games; Leipzig lost 4-1 to Como and beat PSV 1-0 in Europe, lost 6-1 to Bayern in the Bundesliga last round, and have nine points.
Injuries: Vinícius is serving a recent suspension, and whether it affects the Champions League is a matter for the official team sheet; Mbappé is expected to start. For Leipzig, Guiu, Ouédraogo and Baumgartner are reportedly out (a single source).
Schedule: Real Madrid: Sevilla on Sunday → this game → El Clásico on Sunday; Leipzig: Bayern away on Saturday → this game.
What the odds say: Average 1.24 / 7.02 / 9.64, which after removing the margin makes Real Madrid 77%; over 2.5 goals has only three bookmakers quoting it (1.21), so treat it as indicative.
Verdict: Although Real Madrid scoring three in the last seven minutes last round made my prediction wrong, judging by the first 83 minutes, the compatibility problems I talked about are real. But with Vinícius suspended recently, Yan Diomande has been pushed into the starting line-up, and their attack has actually improved. In the 4-1 win over Sevilla, Diomande was superb: a goal and an assist, four successful dribbles, eleven progressive carries, and one of the highest match ratings on the pitch, fully living up to the expectations of his summer price tag. And this round’s opponents Leipzig are in poor form — they were just hit for six by Bayern — so I think this is a perfect opportunity for Real Madrid’s new line-up. I’m backing Real Madrid to win, with over 2.5 goals as the fallback.
Three Underlying Themes This Round: Schedule, Coin Flips and Warning Signs
- From this round on, many teams will face two games in three days or three in ten, which is a big test of their fitness and bench depth. But bench players’ form is usually less clear, which also makes prediction harder.
- This round also has PSG vs Barcelona at 39% to 40% after removing the margin, an almost perfect coin flip between two heavyweights, which usually brings better prices, so whether you can predict it successfully on your knowledge of and trust in the players and teams will be the key to whether it pays.
- And as the season goes on, several teams are showing warning signs: Arsenal beat Forest with a single shot on target, and although they won, there is clearly a problem in attack; behind Manchester City’s unbeaten Premier League run, goals conceded are on the rise, and whether the coach can adjust in time is a concern; and Real Madrid have found a fresh look by starting Diomande, but once Vinícius returns, how will the dressing room and playing time be handled? These are all issues each team will have to face and weigh over the rest of the season.
One last time, as always: betting carries risk, so please bet responsibly.